Andres Oppenheimer: The Oppenheimer Report. Published
Sunday, October 7, 2001 in The Miami Herald
NEW YORK -- Will President Bush's vow to go after international terrorists
and those who protect them spill over into Latin America? How will it affect
U.S. policy on Cuba, which is on the U.S. State Department's list of terrorist
states, or Venezuela, which critics say has friendly ties with anti-American
armed movements around the world?
I posed these questions to several U.S. officials and well-placed former
U.S. diplomats last week, and found a near consensus that the war on terrorism
won't be fought anywhere near Latin America, and is unlikely to result in major
changes in Washington's policies in the region in the near future.
U.S. TOO BUSY
The Bush administration is too busy trying to chase suspected terrorist
Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda network in Afghanistan and the Middle East to spend
much time thinking about terrorist links in Latin America, many of those
interviewed said.
In addition, the United States will avoid raising Cuba's open support for
armed movements in the past, or its most recent role as a sort of Club Med for
international terrorists, for fear of bringing up potentially divisive issues
that could annoy some members of the U.S.-sponsored anti-terrorist coalition,
others said.
But U.S. officials say the Bush administration will most likely keep Cuba on
the U.S. list of "terrorist states'' because it provides safe haven to
Basque ETA terrorists, members of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia and
other insurgent groups and keeps close ties with radical Arab organizations.
If anything, the Sept. 11 terrorist attack on the United States will
effectively kill U.S. congressional moves to ease the U.S. embargo on the Castro
regime.
A recent effort by some U.S. congress members to lift a U.S. travel ban on
the island is doomed, because Congress is highly unlikely to vote for a measure
that could provide economic relief to a country tied to terrorism, officials
say.
Recent press reports that the Bush administration held unusual contacts with
Cuba as part of its efforts to gather information on the Sept. 11 attack on the
United States are "Cuban misinformation,'' one U.S. official told me.
The United States did not make a special outreach effort to Cuba, nor did it
get anything from Fidel Castro's regime, he said.
As for Venezuela, the conventional wisdom in U.S. diplomatic circles is that
the Bush administration will try to avoid a confrontation with the oil-rich
country unless confronted with evidence of a terrorist link.
But Cuba and Venezuela will have to sit tight for the foreseeable future.
The mood in Washington -- and Europe -- has changed dramatically since Sept. 11,
and whatever patience there was for presidents who keep ties with violent groups
around the world has evaporated.
"The margin of U.S. tolerance for countries that flirt with terrorists
and terrorist regimes is much lower,'' says Bernard Aronson, a former head of
the U.S. State Department's Latin American affairs office who is close to the
Bush administration.
"I don't think the United States will go after Cuba and Venezuela,
because we have bigger fish to fry. But the willingness to ignore flirting with
violent organizations has gone down significantly, and countries that want to
have friendly relations with the United States will need to take that into
account.''
It may be no coincidence that Cuban strongman Castro rushed to condemn the
terrorist attack, and last week signed 12 U.N. treaties aimed at fighting
terrorism.
Or that Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez signed a strong Organization
of American States resolution backing the U.S. war on terrorism, and rushed to
say that Venezuela will guarantee oil supplies to the U.S. market.
DIVISION OF LABOR
Few military analysts believe there is such a thing as a close-knit
international terrorist cartel, but we may see the emergence of an international
terrorist division of labor, in which violent groups in one country commit
crimes for their counterparts in another.
It has happened before: In 1980 when Nicaragua's Sandinista guerrillas
decided to kill former dictator Anastasio Somoza in Paraguay, they commissioned
Argentine rebels of the Revolutionary People's Army to do the job.
My conclusion: The Bush administration will not cast a wide net that will
reach Latin American countries in its war on terrorism.
But, in the aftermath of Sept. 11, the political costs of maintaining
friendly ties with violent groups will be higher, and countries that do that
will face greater international isolation.
aoppenheimer@herald.com
Copyright 2001 Miami Herald | 
