By Lou Marano. Virtual New
York. Saturday, 7 July 2001 9:42 (ET)
WASHINGTON, July 7 (UPI) -- An academic study lends independent support to
the pope's call on Friday for an end to the U.S. economic embargo on Cuba.
In a speech to Cuban bishops visiting the Vatican, Pope John Paul II
reiterated the words he spoke in Havana on Jan. 25, 1998, at the end of his
visit to the island nation. "In the name of justice," said the
pontiff, "I stated clearly that the restrictive economic measures imposed
from the outside are unjust and ethically unacceptable."
A copy of the pontiff's address was posted in Spanish Friday on the
Vatican's Web site.
Vice President Richard Nixon first announced the embargo on Cuba at the end
of the Eisenhower administration in October 1960. It banned all U.S. exports to
the island, except for foodstuffs and medical supplies. The Cuban Democracy Act
of 1992 and the Helms-Burton Law of 1996 have tightened the economic sanctions.
In a phone interview from his office in Provo, Utah, Brigham Young
University Prof. Darren Hawkins told United Press International that his
research has led him to believe that the embargo should be ended
unconditionally.
Hawkins' article in the July issue of Comparative Politics bears the opaque,
academic title, "Democratization Theory and Nontransitions: Insights >From
Cuba."
In essence, Hawkins asks why Cuba has remained a dictatorship in the
10-year presence of "structural factors" that political theorists say
cause democracy: pressures from economic crisis, a favorable international
environment and socioeconomic development.
Hawkins believes such structural factors are overrated and that more
attention should be paid to the choices "made by the elite or leaders of a
country."
This reopens an ancient debate in the social sciences. Leslie White
(1900-1975), an American anthropologist best known for his ideas about cultural
evolution, thought social transformation is driven by material conditions such
as technological change. He explicitly rejected the idea of the "great man"
who comes along and changes history. Hawkins' typology would put White in the "structuralist"
camp.
Others argue, to the contrary, that individual leadership makes a
difference. Would American independence have been won without George Washington?
Would the European genocide have taken place if Adolf Hitler had died in his
cradle? Would Cuban communism be so resilient without the canny willpower of
Fidel Castro?
Hawkins holds that Castro has maintained power for more than 40 years
because of his wily leadership strategies and effective repression of dissent --
as well as by endowing his authoritarian regime with minimal levels of
legitimacy.
"It seems safe to say that Cuba has produced lower levels of inequality
than most other Latin American countries," Hawkins wrote. Yet the island's
economy went into a tailspin when its financial patron, the Soviet Union,
imploded in 1990.
"Although the U.S. embargo did not single-handedly cause Cuba's
economic difficulties in the 1990s, it certainly exacerbated them and likely
prevented a more rapid recovery," the political scientist wrote. The
embargo, therefore, enables Castro to blame the United States for domestic
economic problems and to rally the population behind him to face a common enemy.
In recent years, Castro has resisted pressure for more human rights even
from previously supportive countries such as Mexico, Spain and Canada. In such
an atmosphere, the development of a "softline" faction -- which
structuralists consider necessary for a democratic transition -- has been
inhibited.
Likewise, "independent social groups are largely absent from Cuba."
Cuban leaders of the Catholic Church, "the largest and most important
independent social actor that prefers some political change," have "pursued
an accommodationist strategy with the Castro regime."
In support of the primacy of leadership, Hawkins wrote that since the late
1980s, in the face of new economic and political difficulties, "Castro's
personal role in regime governance has increased while government institutions
have lost much of their prestige and effectiveness."
Castro has purged old rivals to his leadership and elevated a younger
generation into positions of power in an apparent effort to secure their loyalty
to him and to the system, Hawkins wrote. Moreover, he "has relied more
heavily on nationalist and anti-imperialistic resentment of the United States to
shore up popular support at home in the face of sagging institutional capacity."
The Cuban dictator has allowed more religious activity, which the pope
acknowledged in his speech on Friday, while continuing to repress human rights
groups and political dissidents.
Hawkins believes the relatively low levels of blank or spoiled ballots in
secret, direct elections suggests that most Cubans consider the communist regime
to be legitimate. Also, "nonscientific polls and surveys" show that
Cubans continue to support basic socialist programs such as free medical
care, free education, as well as subsidized food and transportation.
Further, few Cubans would like to see the mostly white Miami exiles "overrun
the country" in an effort to supplant the mostly black elite that has
emerged since 1959. Even fewer would like the United States to reassert its
former influence over the island, and fewer yet wish for social chaos or civil
war.
Cubans look at the turmoil of post-communist Russia and don't like what they
see. For many, to establish autonomous groups "outside the revolution"
is to become a traitor to the homeland.
Hawkins believes the Cuban case "provides important evidence for the
strength of voluntarist variables" and concludes that Cuba's failure to
become democratic is, fundamentally, "the result of human choice."
But when asked, Hawkins could not say how his insights might lead to a more
effective foreign policy.
"No matter what the United States does, I'm not sure it will make a
whole lot of difference," he said. "But at the very least, we could
take away one of the biggest excuses that Castro has for hanging on to power."
Asked if Americans could co-opt members of the communist elite in Cuba,
Hawkins replied, "No, I don't see any possibility of that at all."
Copyright 2001 by United Press International. | 
