By Daniel Schweimler in Havana.
Financial Times. Published: July 2 2001
19:19GMT
The Cuban economy is growing and by the end of the year should reach a
growth rate of 5 per cent, the state-run media was reporting at the weekend.
But, as always, the official line does not tell the full story.
José Luis Rodríguez, the economy minister, told a meeting of
senior financial officials at the end of last week that since 1995 productivity
had increased, the government's efficiency drive was bearing fruit and
investment was up.
Mr Rodrguez said Cuba, which imports 100,000 barrels of oil a day, last year
increased production of crude oil to 2.4m tonnes. Both petrol and gas production
were this year set to rise by up to 25 per cent. Unemployment, which fell to 5.5
per cent of the workforce last year, showed signs of dropping still further this
year.
However, foreign observers in Cuba say the rate of economic growth is
slowing down. It is reported to have increased by only 3.5 per cent in the first
half of 2001, well below the government's predicted 5 per cent.
The Cubans hope the second half of the year will see a growth of 6.5 per
cent in order to reach their overall target. But the sugar harvest, one of the
main foreign currency earners, was the worst for many years, the victim of bad
weather, high petrol prices and inefficiency.
A new drive to tackle corruption may show financial results, but is already
causing growing resentment in a society where most admit to having to bend the
rules, at least a little, in order to survive.
The perception is that small self-employed business people, landlords,
restaurateurs and artists, are being targeted, while the big fish with friends
in the right places are being left untouched.
The "efficiency" campaign is being carried out by the Ministry for
Audit and Control, which was set up earlier this year. Its minister, Lina
Pedraza, told the meeting last week that a systematic drive to improve
accountability and internal control was under way.
Life for ordinary Cubans, at least in Havana, has improved since the early
1990s after the country's main economic support disappeared with the collapse of
the Soviet Union. But there are still regular shortages of many basic food
items, power cuts are common and Cubans are desperate to work for tourist
dollars rather than the much weaker peso, which buys a diminishing range of
goods.
Fidel Castro's government continues to blame the US economic embargo of the
island, which has been in force for 40 years, for most of its economic problems.
His verbal attacks against Washington have increased in intensity in recent
weeks. But it is difficult to know how many Cubans are still listening,
increasingly cynical about the political message and distrustful of official
economic figures which never tell the full story. | 
