Andres Oppenheimer. Published Thursday, January 25, 2001,
in the Miami Herald
WASHINGTON -- Will the U.S. government change its Cuba policy under the Bush
administration? Are we about to see a toughening of U.S. pressure against
President Fidel Castro?
President Bush has not yet finished his first week in office, and
hard-liners are already planning a series of moves to make Castro's life more
difficult. Aides to Sen. Jesse Helms, R-N.C., the conservative chairman of the
Senate Foreign Relations Committee, tell me they are working on the following
proposals:
A bill to help Cuban dissidents on the island, giving them moral and
material support, much as the United States did with Eastern European
oppositionists before the collapse of the Berlin Wall.
Asking Bush to rescind the six-month waiver on the Helms-Burton Act that
President Clinton signed just before leaving office. The waiver temporarily
suspends U.S. sanctions against foreign companies that invest in properties
confiscated by the Cuban regime from their previous owners.
Asking the Bush administration to indict Castro on grounds of Cuba's "premeditated
murder'' in the downing of four Brothers to the Rescue pilots on Feb. 24, 1996.
An ongoing trial of suspected Cuban spies arrested by the FBI in Miami is
providing ample evidence that Cuba planned the downing of the airplanes, sources
close to Helms say.
On the other side, Democratic Sen. Christopher J. Dodd, D-Conn., is expected
to introduce or co-sponsor half a dozen bills calling for the lifting of the
U.S. trade embargo on Cuba. Opponents of the embargo have gained significant
support in Congress in recent years, as U.S. farmers and major corporations are
supporting that the sanctions be lifted.
During his confirmation hearings last week, Secretary of State Colin Powell
surprised some people when he expressed skepticism about the use of existing
U.S. trade sanctions against an estimated 75 nations. But he did not call for
lifting the embargo on Cuba.
"Mr. Castro is an aging starlet who will not change in his lifetime,
and we will have to keep containing him,'' Powell said. "It is
President-elect Bush's intention to keep the sanctions in place.''
What will happen? Probably, not much. Neither Helms nor Dodd may get enough
votes to pass their bills, and there are some hints that -- rhetoric aside --
Bush will not spend much political capital on the Cuba issue.
First, the appointment of veteran State Department official John Maisto as
National Security Council advisor on Latin American affairs shows that Bush,
faced with picking a career officer who is an expert on Central and South
America or one of several other candidates who have been active in Cuba policy,
opted for the first option. Second, Bush's priority will be to get regional
support for the troubled $1.3 billion U.S. military aid plan for Colombia. He
will hardly want to open his administration up to a second diplomatic battle in
the region by raising the profile of the U.S.-Cuba conflict.
So don't hold your breath for a dramatic change in U.S-Cuba policy. Most
likely, Bush will hope that -- with Castro at 74 -- biology will take care of
the problem . . . which is pretty much what Clinton did.
Copyright 2001 Miami Herald | 