By Brendan Farrington, Associated Press . Naples Daily News. Saturday, March 18, 2000
MIAMI - Doing business in Cuba may not be as simple as waiting for Fidel Castro to leave power - the chaos that follows could still provide big problems for foreign investors, a U.S. official said Friday.
The scramble to replace Castro may create a risk for foreign companies wanting to invest in the island nation, Michael Kozak, the former chief of mission for the U.S. Interests Section in Havana, told about 100 people gathered for a seminar called "Doing Business in Post-Castro Cuba."
Castro has such extreme control over the communist country that the post-Castro government could become "paralyzed and incoherent" leaving a prolonged period of chaos, said Kozak, who now works at the U.S. State Department in Washington.
"Essential decisions on ... privatization, property title, human rights and the market reforms necessary to gain essential international support are likely either to be postponed or to lack the sense of permanence necessary to create an attractive investment climate," he said.
Havana also is unlikely to regain its status as a Latin American hub.
"The huge Cuban middle class of the 40s and 50s was engaged in service industries such as banking, insurance, attorney and architectural services," Kozak said. "Havana in this period was the bridge between North and South America.
"But those functions moved to Miami and elsewhere when Castro isolated Cuba from the rest of the region and - absent a communist revolution in Florida - it is hard to see them moving back to Cuba."
A lot of those attending the seminar hope to someday do business with Cuba.
"I'm trying to get the tools to do business after Castro falls," said Pepe Cancio, president of a Miami concrete manufacturing company. "My family was in the same business in Cuba before Castro. We're going to be ready when the change happens."
Orlando Castaneda, the company's general manager, disagreed with Kozak about the potential problems in post-Castro Cuba.
"Castro is just a one-man band," he said. "No Castro, no problem. Once Castro's gone, the oppression is gone."
Kozak, after his speech, had a different take.
"It's not no Castro, no problem," he said. "It's no Castro, big problem ... It's a different type of problem."
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