By Jay Amberg Bloomberg Lifestyles. Bloomberg.com. Thu, 10 Aug 2000, 11:39am EDT
Havana, Aug. 9 -- While few residents of the Caribbean region would welcome the approach of a hurricane, it may take just such a powerful storm to break a severe drought in eastern Cuba.
Since winter, Cuba's eastern provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, Granma and Holguin have been battling a drought that has destroyed tobacco and coffee crops and killed thousands of head of cattle and other livestock.
News reports from the region indicate that local reservoirs are at about 10 percent of capacity and could run dry unless significant precipitation falls within the next month or two.
Water shortages have caused some residents in the town of Guasimilla, in Granma province, to leave their homes, according to InfoPress.
The tobacco crops affected by the drought are used mostly in the manufacturing of cigarettes and cheap cigars for domestic consumption. The main tobacco-growing region of southwest Cuba in Pinar del Rio hasn't been affected by the drought.
In Pinar del Rio, tobacco grown for cigar manufacturing isn't planted until late fall with harvesting in February, compared with lesser quality tobacco grown through the summer months.
This week, Hurricane Alberto, the first Atlantic Basin hurricane of the season, was on a west-northwest course through the eastern Atlantic Ocean.
Forecasters at the Miami-based National Hurricane Center said it was too early to speculate whether Alberto's storm track could take it through the eastern Caribbean Sea, then into the western Caribbean where rain from the storm could ease conditions in eastern Cuba.
Hydrologists warn that because the ground in eastern Cuba is so dry, runoff from significant precipitation could cause extensive mud slides and severe erosion.
Until Hurricane Alberto, the Atlantic Basin hurricane season has been relatively quiet, but according to William Gray, the hurricane prognosticator from Colorado State University, the slow start to the storm season will have little bearing on the season's final totals.
"The fact that two months (June and July) have passed without so much as a named storm is irrelevant,'' Gray said. "Last year, a very active one, produced only one tropical storm, Arlene, before Aug. 19 (Aug. 20 is generally considered the start of the intense part of the June 1-Nov.
31 hurricane season). Hurricane activity in 1998 also started very late.''
Last week Gray backed off his earlier prediction of 12 named storms in the Atlantic Basin this season (the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico), to 11 named storms, seven of which will become hurricanes and three of them severe, producing winds above 110 miles per hour.
"The fact that we haven't had an early-season storm doesn't mean anything,'' Gray said. "There is no correlation between June and July storms and what may take place later in the season; in fact, there's some evidence for a slight negative correlation.''
If eastern Cuba can find drought relief through a hurricane, Gray said it would probably come during the peak period for tropical storms and hurricanes, Aug. 20-Oct. 20.
Gray said in terms of a major hurricane making a landfall in the Caribbean basin, including Cuba, the odds of such an occurrence are about 10 percent above the past century's average of about 30 percent.
A storm is given a name by the National Hurricane Center when its winds reach 39 mph and it's designated a hurricane when winds are 74 mph. Hurricanes are ranked 1 through 5 on the Saffir- Simposn scale, 1 being the least destructive and 5 (155 mph and higher) the most.
Hurricane Georges, which made a landfall 25 miles east of Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, on Sept. 23, 1998, was the last significant hurricane to strike eastern Cuba, while Tropical Storm Irene, which crossed Havana and Ciudad Havana provinces in Cuba on Oct. 14, 1999, was the last tropical system to
pass through the drought area.
Hurricane Lili was the last major hurricane to strike Cuba. Hurricane Lili made landfall on the south coast of mainland Cuba in Matanzas province on Oct. 18, 1996.
The hurricane caused heavy damage and flooding in central Cuba, taking 12 hours for the hurricane to cross the island before accelerating towards the Bahamas.
©2000 Bloomberg L.P. All rights reserved. | 