By Jay Amberg Bloomberg Lifestyles. Bloomberg.com. Mon, 07 Aug 2000, 10:22am EDT
Havana, Aug. 2 -- Can someone please tell me whether the U.S. is closer to normalizing trade with Cuba, or are we drifting further apart?
After reading all the U.S. and Cuban press reports on the state of Cuban-American relations, I'm more confused than ever.
U.S. cigar manufacturers, distributors and retailers tell me it looks like the end of the Cuban embargo is closer at hand.
"I think the embargo will end before the year's out,'' said a confident Lew Rothman, president of 800-JRCigar, the largest U.S. cigar retailer based in Whippany, New Jersey.
I've only known Rothman for three years, and in that time he's never sounded more positive about the state of the embargo.
In years past when I'd ask him about Cuba and U.S. trade policy, he'd just shrug and say something like, "Every year since 1962 the embargo is supposed to be lifted and now it's 38 years later and it's still here.''
Tobacco as Commodity
While tourism in Cuba has eclipsed both sugar and tobacco as the island's leading source of hard currency, tobacco is still a very important commodity and its cultural significance can't be overstated.
Every Cuban I know who's even remotely related to the tobacco industry would like to get a crack at the U.S. market for both machine and hand-made cigars.
The U.S. market currently consumes about 350 million premium cigars a year and if the embargo were lifted, opening such a huge market to the Cuban product would give Habanos SA an opportunity to generate some serious cash.
You can't convince me that Altadis, the Spanish mega-cigar giant spent $500 million on Habanos SA in December thinking the Cuban company would be shut out of the U.S. market for another decade.
I sometimes wonder whether the tobacco people I routinely speak with know something the rest of us don't, but then I come to my senses and realize the last thing the U.S. government would do is consider lifting a trade embargo just so more people could start smoking.
How could I have been so stupid?
The Future
Countless newspaper articles, radio and television commentaries have recently hinted that the time for lifting the embargo is at hand.
While all the hypothesizing makes for a good read, after digesting it all, to me and countless other Americans it seems clear that U.S. policy toward Cuba is based on a single theme: punitive economic damage.
So what's in the future? U.S. Congressman Bill McCollum, R- Florida, the GOP's senate candidate, evidently thinks he knows where U.S.-Cuba policy is headed.
Touting the Republican platform on Cuba, McCollum told journalists at the Republican Convention in Philadelphia, "We've (the Republicans) never had a Cuba plank that was this clear and concise.''
If I have this straight, the Republican Party platform states the embargo should continue until the Cuban government legalizes opposition parties, frees political prisoners and makes a commitment to holding free elections.
Further, the platform also supports the Cuban Adjustment Act of 1966 (granting protection to Cuban refugees) and supports Cuba's dissident population.
Maybe I don't pay enough attention to U.S. political platforms but this sounds like the same old stuff we've been hearing about Cuba from U.S. politicians for the past three decades.
Encourage Travel
While I'd like to see the "bloqueo'' (as the embargo is called in Cuba) lifted tomorrow, if that isn't going to happen, then the next best thing is to end all U.S. travel restrictions.
I've made enough trips to Cuba in the past two years and met with enough Cubans to know that best way to encourage change in Cuba is through expanded people-to-people contact.
Those who oppose easing all travel restrictions for U.S. citizens argue that each dollar spent in Cuba keeps President Fidel Castro in power.
With or without my dollars, after 41 years as the absolute authority in Cuba, Castro's grip on the island isn't going to get any stronger than it already is.
In the major Cuban cities where exchanges between tourists and Cubans are more frequent, the influx of foreigners has had a dramatic impact on the way Cubans look at their society, both good and bad.
All those tourist dollars that pro-embargo forces claim help keep the revolution alive have actually done more to promote a growing class of dissidents, especially among Cuba's emerging middle class, including young people.
If the Republicans want to support the Cuban dissident movement, it's time boost the American presence in Cuba by ending travel restrictions.
We need to help support the thousands of silent dissidents who ply the streets of Havana every day. These are the men and women who operate illegal taxis, open restaurants without government permits and work as independent tour guides.
These Cubans may not be the most vocal critics of the Cuban government; they aren't the artists, poets, writers and intellectuals, the traditional cultural base from which most Cuban dissidents have been drawn.
Silent Dissidents
The silent dissidents don't have big banners and signs but they have dreams. When they talk to people they trust you hear stories about families who are just looking to better their lives. These people talk about change and wonder when it will come and how it will affect them.
My friends in Cuba have always said Cuba won't change until the embargo is lifted and the lifting of U.S. economic sanctions is the one thing Castro fears most.
I think more than money, Castro fears people, people like you and me who ask questions, offer our opinions, travel freely, have food on our tables, drive cars and on any day can choose from hundreds of television and radio stations, magazines and newspapers.
What Americans can bring to Cuba has little to do with money and more to do with spirit.
By keeping Americans from traveling to Cuba, we're keeping our best ambassadors at home.
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