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Sooner or later, 'Fidel
Show' will end
By Marifeli Perez-Stable,
mps_opinion@comcast.net. Posted on Thu,
Feb. 01, 2007 in The
Miami Herald.
Here we go again. On Tuesday, Cuban television
broadcast a six-minute video of Fidel Castro
and Hugo Chávez. Chávez did
most of the talking, and Castro -- perhaps
less gaunt than we last saw him three months
ago -- looked the part of a seriously stricken
old man. Sooner or later, the show will
be over.
In the meantime, life -- such as it is
-- goes on in Cuba. We can argue endlessly
about the significance of the past six months.
The succession -- not a transition, which
can only be to democracy -- is happening
before our eyes. On the regime's terms,
it is a success. For now. Cubans are said
to be fearful and anxious about what lies
ahead, yet also relieved. Interminable speeches
and ideological battles are receding. The
nightly soap opera often starts on time
at 8:30, sparing viewers the soporific Roundtable
on current events.
There's more but, on the whole, not much
yet. Still, we're getting inklings of what
might be. In six months, Raúl Castro
has paid more attention to the economy than
his brother did in six years. Sure, talk
about results isn't earthshaking anywhere
except for Cuba. Even the modest economic
reforms of the early 1990s were long ago
frozen, curtailed or retrenched. In 2004,
for example, the regime pared back self-employment
licenses for 40 private gainful activities,
including clowns, magicians, masseurs/masseuses
and vendors of sundries like soap, mousetraps
and funeral wreaths.
Granted, talk of creating cooperatives
in urban areas when agricultural cooperatives
have so underperformed isn't particularly
exhilarating. But, Raúl and the others
need to tread lightly as long as the Comandante
is around -- though the man on the recent
video doesn't seem all there mentally --
and even after he's six feet under. Nothing
but markets and freeing the citizenry's
entrepreneurial energies will shake the
stupor out of the Cuban economy. Since the
elder Castro cringes at the sight of Cubans
making money, the successors can't simply
say, like Deng Xiaoping, "Let's get
rich!''
A few days ago, the Financial Times reported
that the Communist Party is finally preparing
the long-delayed congress for late this
year or early 2008. As far as I know, it
is the first instance of an official mention
of the blessed event, even if attributed
to unnamed party insiders. Why is this significant?
Castro, the elder, has long resisted the
serious discussion of economic reforms that
the congress could not avoid. A year from
now he'll likely be dead or so deteriorated
that the successors can go about their business
unhindered. If he's alive and recuperated,
then they're in trouble.
If the first scenario happens, the regime
may take small steps to open the economy
in advance of the congress. Unburdening
self-employment of excessive regulations,
for example, would immediately catch people's
attention. Ordinary Cubans haven't really
listened to their leadership in a long time.
Politicians -- even dictators -- crave support,
but having people lend them their ears is
second best. Holding the party congress
after some modest liberalization would do
the trick, for a while.
But, let's get back to Chávez. A
Cuban delegation of 10 ministers led by
Vice President Carlos Lage just returned
from Caracas after having signed deals worth
more than $1 billion. Cuba is ever more
dependent on Venezuela, right? Yes and no.
Clearly, Chávez threw Fidel a lifeline
that allowed him to weather a tightened
U.S. embargo and forgo economic reforms.
Raúl and Chávez are definitely
not soul mates, which wouldn't matter if
Cuba were to stay on a Fidelista course.
Maintaining the status quo without the Comandante,
however, may lead the regime to the brink
of a social explosion.
Doctors and oil
Opening the economy, on the other hand,
entails conducting a different foreign policy.
Raúl isn't about to break with Chávez,
but he'd need a diplomatic corps more attentive
to attracting investment than concocting
anti-imperialist harangues.
A little distance is, nonetheless, entirely
possible. If Cuba is dependent, so is Venezuela
on Cuba. Chávez's touted misiones
-- which have serviced the poor with doctors
and teachers -- are possible thanks to Cuban
professionals. The misiones are as essential
for Chávez's legitimacy as oil is
for the Cuban economy.
Stay tuned!
Marifeli Pérez-Stable is vice president
for democratic governance at the Inter-American
Dialogue in Washington, D.C., and a professor
at Florida International University.
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