What's next for Cuba -
and Latin America - after Castro?
By John Hughes. The
Christian Science Monitor, December
6, 2006.
SALT LAKE CITY - While President Bush is
understandably preoccupied with the far-off
Middle East, there is uncertainty, and perhaps
mischief brewing, in America's own backyard.
This past weekend marked the eclipse of
Fidel Castro, who spent a lifetime trying
to convert Latin America to anti-American
socialism. The weekend also saw the consolidation
of power by Hugo Chávez in Venezuela.
Mr. Chávez seeks to assume Mr. Castro's
mantle and inject even more virulent anti-
Americanism into a leftward drift l ike
we are witnessing in such countries as Bolivia,
Ecuador, Nicaragua, and even Mexico, where
leftists showed surprising strength in recent
elections.
Evidence of Castro's fading in Cuba was
his absence from celebrations of his 80th
birthday in Havana this past weekend. The
celebrations had already been postponed
from Aug. 13, his actual birthday, because
of ill health. Apart from a few photo- graphs
in which he has appeared drawn and frail,
Castro has been out of public view for months
following surgery for an undisclosed ailment.
The official explanation of the postponement
of his August birthday celebration was to
give him time to recuperate so that he could
appear in person this past weekend. Clearly
he was unable to do that. Written messages,
purportedly drafted by Castro, have been
read. But this has only fueled speculation
that Castro is now too weak even to speak
into a tape recorder.
During his illness, Castro transferred
power to his brother Raúl. But Raúl
is himself elderly and lacks the energy
and charisma that would enable him to deliver
the four- and five-hour speeches with which
his brother was able to galvanize the Cuban
populace.
So the question now is whether Raúl
Castro, and the elderly Cuban generals around
him, will continue to pursue the same narrow
economic policies favored by Fidel Castro.
These policies have kept many Cubans impoverished,
but have enabled the top ranks of the military
to live grandly. The generals have been
placed in charge of state-run agencies that
control agriculture, hotels, mining, the
allocation of oil leases, and other sections
of the economy.
Raúl Castro has indicated some interest
in the current Chinese model of government
that frees up the economy to private development,
but retains the reins of political power
in the hands of the communist regime.
Cuba must decide whether it is to continue
the Fidel model, or perhaps the Fidel model
somewhat moderated by the ideas of Raúl,
or whether it is to embrace the free-market
system that most economists outside Cuba
believe would set Cuba on the path to prosperity.
The risk to that is that it might trigger
a parallel demand for political liberalization
threatening the present ruling regime.
The Army, and an intelligence system that
currently keeps tabs on dissidents, probably
effectively neutralizes any serious reform
movement that would change the existing
regime. But some US experts on Cuba speculate
that there may be a "Mister X,"
such as a lieutenant colonel in the Cuban
Army, disgusted by corruption at higher
levels, who could spearhead a movement for
reform.
Meanwhile, Venezuela's Chávez confidently
won a new six-year presidential term this
past weekend, and says he will seek a change
in his country's Constitution that would
enable him to rule indefinitely.
As part of a campaign to impose his leftist
views on Latin America, Chávez has
vigorously courted Fidel Castro and subsidizes
vital oil shipments from Venezuela to Cuba
to a tune of about $2 billion a year. Whereas
Cuba's economy is in disrepair and has failed,
Venezuela profits hugely from the export
of oil from its considerable reserves. With
such a stream of revenue, Chávez
has been spending large sums on arms and
military aircraft. These are not considered
a direct threat to the US, but they could
be used to destabilize countries in Latin
America unyielding to Chávez's socialist
blandishments. More serious, they could
be used to arm terrorists hostile to the
US in regions elsewhere.
Chávez's tasteless attack on President
Bush at the recent meeting of the UN General
Assembly may have played a role in thwarting
his attempt to secure a seat for Venezuela
on the Security Council. But Chávez
clearly is undaunted in his ambition to
succeed Fidel Castro as a significant figure
from Latin America who proudly waves the
socialist banner and taunts the US.
Despite America's diverse involvements
elsewhere around the globe, Chávez's
is a campaign the US would be well advised
to watch carefully.
John Hughes, a former editor of the
Monitor, is editor and chief operating officer
of the Deseret Morning News.
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