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When to celebrate in Cuba
USATODAY.com via Yahoo!
News. August 15, 2006.
Thousands of Cuban-Americans danced in
the streets of Miami two weeks ago when
it was reported that dictator Fidel Castro
had surgery for intestinal bleeding and
had "temporarily" transferred
presidential power to his brother Raul.
The outburst was premature, if understandable.
Castro is alive, though not well. Cuba's
Communist daily newspaper published photographs
of him in bed - sporting a red, white and
blue Adidas warm-up suit - on his 80th birthday
Sunday. In a message to Cuba's 11 million
people, Castro said he faces a long recovery
and they should be ready to "face any
adverse news."
It appears unlikely that he'll ever fully
resume power. The transition to Raul, his
75-year-old brother and defense minister,
has so far been accepted with surprising
calm.
That could change once Fidel is gone for
good, but exiles and U.S. policymakers who've
long assumed that Castro's demise would
bring an abrupt transformation in Cuba are
probably in for disappointment.
His death is unlikely to spell the quick
end of communism in Cuba, and it certainly
won't end anti-Americanism in the Western
Hemisphere, where Venezuelan President Hugo
Chavez has positioned himself as Castro's
ideological heir.
With or without Fidel, Cuba's communists
won't give up power willingly.
After 47 years of political repression
and indoctrination - 60% of Cuba's population
has known no other leader - a popular uprising
seems improbable or destined to be quickly
crushed.
Whether U.S. policy will acknowledge that
reality, though, is less certain. Exiles
dream about returning to the island and
reclaiming property confiscated from their
families during the 1959 revolution, and
their passions disproportionately influence
presidential politics. But they're a poor
basis for U.S. action. Castro has long used
the counterproductive U.S. trade and travel
embargo as a scapegoat for his nation's
devastated economic condition.
If Cuba is to thrive again, Castro's successors
must be convinced that it's in their own
interests to promote change. Prodding them
patiently and deftly, rather than just confrontationally,
is more likely to hasten that day. Ultimately,
pressure for democratic reform coupled with
a better exchange of people, goods and ideas
could change the totalitarian nature of
the regime.
When that happens, exiles and Cubans alike
will have true cause for celebration.
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