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Don't expect big
moves in U.S. policy
Although plans by Bush
and Kerry differ, the outcome of the Nov.
2 election likely will bring no sea change
in policies toward Latin America.
By Andres Oppenheimer, aoppenheimer@herald.com.
Posted on Mon, Sep. 27, 2004 in The Miami
Herald.
Judging from what President Bush and Democratic
candidate John Kerry are saying about Latin
America these days, there probably won't
be a sea change in U.S. policy toward the
region regardless of who wins the Nov. 2
election.
Sure, there are differences among the two
candidates' Latin America plans. Most experts
agree that a Kerry administration would
tend to be less generous with Latin America
on trade issues, while a second Bush administration
would be less flexible than Kerry on migration
issues.
And on Cuba, Kerry is vowing to relax recent
U.S. travel restrictions to the island.
Bush recently tightened travel rules to
Cuba in what critics see as an election-year
maneuver to win Cuban-American votes in
Florida and New Jersey.
MAINSTREAM ADVISORS
But in general, the two candidates and
their advisors are promising to pay greater
attention to the region, and to continue
the pro-democracy, pro-free market policies
that have guided U.S. policy for Latin American
over the past three decades.
In addition, the two candidates' Latin
American advisors are mostly mainstream
former U.S. State Department or White House
officials unlikely to depart drastically
from established policies.
While Roger Noriega -- a conservative who
some Republicans say has turned more moderate
in recent years -- currently is in charge
of Latin American policy in the State Department,
Kerry's Latin American aides are almost
all former Clinton administration officials.
In the latter category are Nelson Cunningham,
former chief of staff to the special White
House envoy for Latin America, and Peter
Romero, the former State Department Latin
America chief.
KERRY'S STANCE
In his campaign, Kerry has repeatedly lashed
out at the Bush administration for not paying
more attention to Latin America. Kerry told
The Herald in a recent interview that "this
administration has been singularly uninvolved
in all of Latin America . . . Whether it's
been Argentina or Brazil, or the Venezuelan
crisis, this administration is really not
respected . . . as having a serious policy
in the region.''
While Bush has not yet given a campaign
speech on Latin America, Kerry announced
his plans for the region in a June 26 speech
in Washington.
Among his main proposals:
o Setting up a commission to look into
whether the 1994 North American Free Trade
Agreement with Mexico and Canada, and the
Central American Free Trade Agreement signed
by Bush with five Central American countries
earlier this year, should be renegotiated.
o Establishing a $500 million a year ''Social
Investment fund'' for the region. Under
the plan, the U.S. government would help
promote small businesses and startups, and
local governments would match the funds
with their own resources.
o Setting up a ''North American Security
Perimeter'' with Canada and Mexico, to jointly
secure the region's borders through shared
Customs, immigration and security policies.
o Tripling U.S. funds to the National Endowment
for Democracy's programs to strengthen democracy
in the region. These funds are used to help
traditional and new parties or help dissidents
in countries where there are no political
freedoms.
o Pursuing more multilateral U.S. policies,
to increase the number of American allies
to fight terrorism and encourage political
change in Venezuela and Cuba.
Asked why voters should believe he would
pay more attention to the region than Bush,
Kerry said in a televised interview, "Because
I already have. I've been 20 years in the
Foreign Relations Committee in the Senate,
and I've been deeply involved, through the
years.''
BUSH'S STANCE
Otto Reich, a conservative Republican who
until earlier this year served as a senior
Latin America advisor at the White House
and now speaks for the Bush campaign on
Latin American issues, said Kerry's Senate
record shows ''an incredible lack of interest''
in Latin America.
''Kerry doesn't know anything about Latin
America,'' Reich said. "It would be
a very hard learning curve: in 20 years
in the Senate, we were only able to find
one trip that he made to the region, and
that was to Nicaragua in 1980.''
In fact, Kerry also traveled to the 1992
U.N. Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil,
where he met his current wife Theresa. He
visited Argentina on that same trip.
Asked what would be the priorities of a
second Bush administration in the region,
Reich listed a continued expansion of free
trade, continued support for Colombia's
war against narco-terrorists, increased
assistance to the region's poorest countries
through the $1-billion-a-year worldwide
Millenium Challenge Account, and continued
opposition to the region's undemocratic
regimes.
Reich conceded that Bush's plan to sign
the proposed hemisphere-wide FTAA by the
Dec. 31 deadline is not likely to happen,
but added that the administration has just
signed the free trade deal with five Central
American countries and the Dominican Republic,
and is actively negotiating similar agreements
with Colombia, Ecuador and Peru.
Except for the four countries that make
up the Mercosur common market (Argentina,
Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay,) Venezuela
and the English-speaking Caribbean, ''everybody
else has either signed or is negotiating
a free trade agreement with the United States,''
Reich said.
''So there will be an FTAA running the
entire length of the continental spine,
from Alaska to Chile. The other countries
eventually will see the reality of the world,
which is free trade, and will decide,''
he added.
On the other hand, a Kerry administration
would turn back the clock on free trade,
Republicans say.
''Kerry would be under tremendous pressures
from the protectionist and isolationist
wings of his party, embodied by his vice
presidential candidate John Edwards,'' Reich
said. Kerry denies being a protectionist.
While polls in Latin America show majority
suppport for Kerry, most Latin American
experts don't expect a significant change
in U.S. policy under either president.
''I don't see much change,'' said Oscar
Arias, former Costa Rican president and
Nobel Peace prize winner. "In Washington,
there is no major interest in Latin America.
The main concern is over the Middle East
and Irak . . . and the war on terrorism.''
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