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Castro's
delusions
Washington
Times, May 29,
2004.
During his visit to The Washington Times
this week, Assistant Secretary of State
Roger Noriega described Cuban President
Fidel Castro as an increasingly paranoid
dictator, expectantly awaiting a clash with
the United States. While the motivations
of Mr. Castro are often difficult to divine,
the public conjuring of this threat could
facilitate, in his mind, the meeting of
a goal dear to his heart: An eventual transfer
of power to his brother, Raul Castro.
"There are some worrying signs that
[Fidel] Castro is hunkering down for some
kind of confrontation with the United States,
real or imagined," Mr. Noriega told
reporters and editors. If real, that confrontation
would be provoked by Fidel Castro, presumably
to secure some interest of his, added Mr.
Noriega.
Most Cuba experts tend to agree that Fidel
Castro probably won't face serious threats
to his repressive rule while he is either
alive or of sound mind. Raul Castro's succession
could also go smoothly - in the beginning.
There are several factors that could break
the solidarity of Cuba's armed forces and
thereby threaten Raul Castro's leadership.
Fidel Castro's conjuring of a potential
U.S. attack could be geared toward strengthening
fraternity in military ranks.
In the study "The Cuban military
and transition dynamics," Brian Latell,
a senior associate at the Center for Strategic
and International Studies, outlines the
sources of tension within Cuba's Revolutionary
Armed Forces and what they imply for Raul
Castro's succession aspirations. The armed
forces are widely considered the most professional
and merit-based organization in Cuba. Surveys
taken of Cuban exiles indicate a broad appreciation
of the armed forces, which are expected
to play a central role in any transfer of
power in Cuba. But that appreciation doesn't
appear to apply to the head of the forces,
Raul Castro, who is poorly regarded, according
to the surveys. The Prussian, as Raul is
often called, is an effective military commander
but ruthless in guarding his powers and
utterly lacking in charisma.
Raul Castro has also made missteps that
have alienated him from a potentially large
segment of the corps. The 1989 televised
execution of revolutionary hero Arnaldo
Ochoa for political reasons embittered many
in the forces. That bitterness appears to
linger and could lead to a division in the
corps, in the event of Fidel Castro's death
or incapacitation.
At the same time, the Cuban military,
according to various sources, has not been
trained to, and probably is not willing
to, put down a massive uprising (at, for
example, Fidel Castro's death) with lethal
force. Should Raul Castro face a massive
insurrection, any orders to put the movement
down could be either ignored or lead to
a schism, said the study. Division in the
corps may already be occurring, prompted
by the comprehensive involvement of the
officers, particularly friends of Raul Castro,
in lucrative commercial ventures since the
mid-1990s.
In summary, Raul Castro, should he still
be alive when the time comes, faces a difficult
inheritance of power. Given the tensions
and traditions of the Cuban corps, raising
the specter of a clash with the United States
could be highly expedient for Fidel Castro.
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