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CUBA
NEWS
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Democrats seek out Cuban-American vote
By Henry Hamman. Wed Nov
12.
As a candidate for president, George W.
Bush promised he would work vigorously to
shake Fidel Castro's grip on Cuba - a message
Florida's Cuban-American voters were eager
to hear. In recent months, however, the
administration has been intent on assuaging
the same voters' anger that Mr. Castro is
still in power.
That dissatisfaction has grown so strong
that Florida political analysts think the
Democrats have an opportunity to break the
Republican monopoly on the crucial Cuban-American
vote.
But those analysts also wonder whether
the Democrats have the will or the policy
ideas to exploit what Sergio Bendixen, a
pollster, calls "this window of opportunity
that has opened up".
For the Democrats, the stakes could not
be much higher. "They're going to have
to spend a lot of money" courting the
Florida Hispanic vote, said Susan MacManus,
an expert on Florida p olitics at the University
of South Florida. "This is a crucial
community, and they cannot let the opportunity
go by for a second election cycle in a row."
Florida is generally considered the biggest
unpredictable bloc of electoral votes in
presidential elections. Both California
and New York today lean Democratic and Texas,
Mr Bush's ho me state, is firm Republican
country.
In 2000, Mr Bush carried Florida by just
537 votes - a margin that Democrats still
dispute due to numerous voting irregularities
and weeks of post-election fighting over
the final res ult.
Hispanic voters, Florida's fastest growing
demographic group, make up 13 to 16 per
cent of the state electorate. About 400,000
Cuban-Americans - 80 per cent of whom voted
for Mr Bush - comprise between 50 and 60
per cent of Hispanic voters. A handful of
Cuban-American defections would have erased
Mr Bush's tiny margin of victory; next year
Cuban-American and Hispanic votes will again
be crucial.
Mr Bendixen, a specialist in Hispanic public
opinion, told the Financial Times that Cuban-American
voters are now in "a public opinion
quagmire".
"Ten years ago, the exile community
was pretty much united on what we might
call a confrontation strategy" with
Castro, but over the past two to three years,
confrontation has been "s een as a
failure and the community started looking
for alternatives", he said.
Mr Bendixen said polling data showed that
exiles increasingly think the 40-year embargo
has failed, yet there is "a strong
consensus not to give up the embargo without
getting somethi ng in return".
Democrats must identify an appealing policy
alternative, Mr Bendixen said, if they wanted
to "slice off 10 to 20 per cent of
the Cuban-American vote" - all he says
they need. "The Rep ublicans in the
White House need to hold on to all of it."
This has been a difficult year for the
administration's Cuba policy. When Havana
cracked down on dissent this spring, Mr
Bush was unable to formulate a response
that quelled Cuban-American outrage.
The return of a group that had converted
a vintage truck into a boat, and the repatriation
of 12 hijackers who stole a Cuban government
boat, stirred anger in Miami. And both the
Hous e and Senate have voted to end enforcement
of the Cuba travel ban, even in the face
of a veto threat.
Even so, the Democrats thus far lacked
a strategy for winning Cuban-American votes,
Ms MacManus said. Failure to make inroads
among Hispanics would be "devastating"
for the party's fu ture, she added.
Last year Republicans spent $1.2m (?1m,
£718m) on Hispanic media advertising,
and Jeb Bush, Florida's governor - who won
more Hispanic votes in Florida last year
than his brother did in 2000 - spoke fluent
Spanish while campaigning door-to-door.
Democrats and their candidate largely bypassed
the entire Hispanic community.
But the Democrats have long had trouble
communicating with the Miami Cubans. With
the exception of Joseph Lieberman, the Connecticut
senator, the field of presidential candidates
has paid little attention to that community,
Mr Bendixen notes. "You can't beat
somebody with nobody," he said.
One Florida academic points out a political
dilemma: past Democratic efforts to court
Hispanics more aggressively resulted in
accusations of neglect from African-Americans,
a core party constituency.
Raymond Zeller, Democratic party chairman
in Miami-Dade County, where the Cuban-American
vote is concentrated, said: "I want
to advertise in [Hispanic media]. I have
to raise the money." The message, he
added, should be "what the Democratic
party can do for you". The big hurdle,
he said, is that even though Cuban-Americans
may side with the Democrats on such issues
as healthcare and education, they tend to
"think Democratic, vote Republican".
Congress Upholds Ban on Cuba Travel
By ALAN FRAM, Associated
Press Writer.
WASHINGTON, 12 - House-Senate bargainers
bowed to a White House veto threat on Wednesday
and upheld the four-decade old ban on most
travel to Cuba.
Though the Republican-run House and Senate
had separately approved provisions earlier
this year lifting the ban, negotiators dropped
the language from a compromise bill.
Sen. Byron Dorgan, D-N.D., an advocate
of lifting the ban, tried persuading lawmakers
to settle for a narrower provision allowing
travel to the Communist-run country by farm
groups promoting sales of agricultural products.
But it died when House bargainers refused
to accept it on a voice vote.
"It means nothing if this bill is
not signed into law," said Rep. Ernest
Istook of Oklahoma, the chief House negotiator.
The travel provision was dropped as bargainers
from the two chambers agreed to a compromise
$88.9 billion measure financing the Transportation
and Treasury departments and several smaller
agencies for the federal budget year that
began Oct. 1.
That measure also contains $1.22 billion
for Amtrak, close to what railroad officials
say they need to keep trains running and
maintenance projects on track. It also clears
the way for members of Congress to receive
their latest annual pay raise.
Despite crackdowns on dissidents in recent
months by Cuban President Fidel Castro,
both chambers of Congress voted in recent
weeks to lift restrictions on Americans
traveling to the Caribbean island.
The amendments would have ended a policy
that has limited travel to Cuba to family
visits and trips by educational, humanitarian,
media and diplomatic groups.
Even so, the Bush administration repeatedly
threatened to veto the overall bill if the
restrictions were eased, most recently in
letters Treasury Secretary John Snow and
Secretary of State Colin Powell sent lawmakers
this week.
Supporters of the travel ban say lifting
it would only help Castro, while opponents
say having more Americans in Cuba could
undermine his government.
"Traveling to Cuba would help show
Cuban citizens what democracy is all about,"
said Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash.
Within the GOP, the White House and other
Republicans determined to woo the strongly
anti-Castro Cubans living in Florida are
pitted against free-trade Republicans eager
to lift restrictions on travel and trade
with Cuba.
The government estimates about 160,000
Americans traveled legally to Cuba last
year, half of them Cuban-Americans visiting
relatives. Humanitarian and educational
groups, journalists and diplomats can also
visit, but thousands of other Americans
visit illegally via third countries.
Officials of Amtrak, the taxpayer subsidized
passenger carrier, had initially said they
needed $1.8 billion this year to retain
existing levels of service. President Bush
proposed $900 million, an amount the House
approved.
After the Senate voted to provide $1.35
billion, Amtrak President David Gunn wrote
lawmakers that anything less would "seriously
jeopardize the availability of service and
continued operation of the national system."
The final compromise between the two Republican-run
chambers underlined the clout wielded by
Amtrak supporters. Though its busiest line
runs from Boston and Washington, Amtrak
serves 500 communities in 46 states.
Passage of the overall bill would open
the door for a 2.2 percent pay raise for
members of Congress in January, bringing
their salaries to more than $158,000 a year.
Lawmakers get an automatic pay raise each
year unless they vote to block it. Though
the Treasury bill does not mention a salary
increase, the measure is traditionally the
battleground on that issue, and the House
and Senate earlier rejected efforts to kill
the raise.
The bill also:
_Includes $500 million to help states modernize
their voting systems. Lawmakers said they
will try to include more money in a huge
spending bill Congress plans to approve
before it adjourns, perhaps later this month.
_Blocks for the next year federal efforts
to let companies use cash balance pension
funds, which can help younger workers likely
to change jobs during their careers but
could cut benefits for older employees.
_Would limit the Bush administration's
ability to shift federal jobs to the private
sector.
_Would let the National Archives begin
talks with the private Richard Nixon library
in Yorba Linda, Calif., to set up a formal
Nixon presidential library there. Until
now, Nixon's presidential papers and tapes
have been kept by the National Archives
in College Park, Md.
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