Isabel Vincent. National
Post. Canada, November 9, 2000
George W. Bush's apparent razor-thin margin of victory in Florida on Tuesday
owes a great deal to Cuban-American anger over the Clinton administration's
handling of the Elian Gonzalez affair, and changing voting patterns among
elderly retirees.
Cuban-Americans in Miami-Dade County overwhelmingly voted for the Republican
candidate because of their anger over the Clinton administration's decision last
year to return Elian, the six-year-old Cuban shipwreck survivor, to his family
in Cuba.
Miami Cubans have traditionally voted Republican, although Bill Clinton, the
U.S. President, made inroads in the community in 1996, when he captured as much
as 40% of the Cuban-American vote.
On Tuesday, Al Gore, the Vice- President, managed just 20% of the
Cuban-American vote in Miami-Dade. "Cuban-Americans in Miami-Dade [county]
are still really angry about the Elian issue," said Juliet Gainsborough, a
professor of political science at the University of Miami. "I think that Al
Gore probably won Miami-Dade anyway, but with nothing like the margin that he
had in Broward, which has traditionally been the most Democratic county in the
United States."
Mr. Gore captured 67.42% of the vote in Broward, compared to 30.92% for Mr.
Bush. In Miami-Dade, the margin of victory for Mr. Gore was much narrower, with
Mr. Gore capturing 52.6% of the vote compared to 46.3% for Mr. Bush.
But even among the traditional Democratic supporters in Broward County, Mr.
Bush appeared to make strong inroads. Although the mostly transplanted retirees
from the northeastern United States, who live in the county's seaside
communities, such as Fort Lauderdale and Hollywood, have voted Democrat in the
past, Mr. Bush managed to split the vote. Analysts said this was because Mr.
Gore's campaign focused too much on Medicare and Social Security.
A Miami Herald survey of voters leaving the polls on Tuesday found that
among senior citizens in Broward, this kind of "New Deal" platform had
lost its appeal.
Mr. Bush also had strong support in central Florida, which is on a different
time zone than South Florida and was the cause of some confusion on Tuesday.
Initial reports indicated Mr. Gore had won the state although results were still
due from the central region.
"George W. Bush has a lot of support in central Florida because it is
really considered to be a part of the Deep South," said Ms. Gainsborough,
adding that Mr. Bush's conservative platform had great appeal among the mostly
conservative, mostly Christian and mostly white voters in that region.
Despite Mr. Bush's gains among seniors and Cuban-Americans, Mr. Gore won a
great deal of support among women and black voters.
A Voter News Service survey, commissioned by the Miami Herald, found that
women turned out in far greater numbers than men. Mr. Gore received 54% of the
vote among female voters.
Analysts attribute the gain to Mr. Gore's efforts to make an issue out of
the future of the Supreme Court. The next president may be able to appoint three
or more justices to the high court, a matter of concern for pro-abortion forces
that fear a more conservative court would not uphold the Roe v. Wade decision,
which gives women a right to choose abortion. Among working women in Florida,
Mr. Gore had 60% support, compared to 38% for Mr. Bush, according to the Herald
poll.
Black voters, who cast 16% of the presidential vote in the state (six points
higher than in 1996), overwhelmingly voted for Mr. Gore. It was largely a
reaction against an initiative by Jeb Bush, Florida Governor and the younger
brother of George W. Bush, that would replace affirmative action in state
universities' admissions with a program based on grades.
Well-known Democrats, such as the Rev. Jesse Jackson, campaigned against the
initiative and helped sway black voters to support Mr. Gore, the survey found.
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