Cuba quietly waits for
change in leadership
The communist island
quietly carries on in the wake of a change
in leadership - but its fate is far from
clear
By Tracey Eaton, Houston
Chronicle. October 23, 2006.
HAVANA - Nothing blew up. No one took to
the streets. The government didn't fall.
Three months after Fidel Castro was forced
to turn over power to his younger brother,
Raul, peace reigns in Cuba.
"So far, nothing's happened. Not a
thing," said Saul Landau, a California
author and filmmaker who produced the documentary
Fidel. "The Cuban government is remarkably
stable."
But the Cold War-era battle over Cuba,
a nation that has antagonized Washington
for more than a half-century, is far from
over. And the fate of the island, off limits
to most American travelers for decades,
remains uncertain.
"Cuba is a nation waiting," said
Elizardo Sanchez, a well-known dissident
in Havana. "Everyone is waiting, in
that we're all the same, from the comandante's
brother to the simplest of us."
The comandante, of course, is Fidel Castro,
who took power in 1959 and has defied 10
consecutive American presidents.
Cuban Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque
said he expects Castro to return to power,
perhaps on Dec. 2 when Cubans plan a belated
80th birthday party for him. But many U.S.
officials question whether he'll ever resume
his full duties, and some experts speculate
that he has terminal cancer.
Transition or succession
Details of Castro's health remain a Cuban
state secret. Cuban officials announced
July 31 that he was undergoing emergency
surgery for intestinal bleeding.
A week later, Secretary of State Condoleezza
Rice declared that change in Cuba was under
way. Washington set up five interagency
working groups to track developments. And
President Bush promised to help the Cuban
people build a "transitional government."
But the transition is looking more like
a socialist succession, some say. And it
may be difficult for Bush to convince Cubans
there's a better alternative because his
options are limited, said Philip Peters,
a Cuba expert at the Lexington Institute
in Virginia.
A 1996 U.S. law known as Helms-Burton prohibits
the president from easing economic sanctions
against Cuba while either Castro brother
is in power. So even if Bush wanted to try
something different - say, lift the travel
ban to Cuba and flood the island with American
tourists, money and democratic ideals -
he'd be out of luck, Peters said.
For now, the U.S. government's chief strategies
include supporting dissidents and broadcasting
radio and TV signals into Cuba to try to
break the socialist government's "information
blockade."
Heightened alert
Then there's the billboard. At night, the
U.S. government's Havana headquarters becomes
a huge message board, as red letters scroll
across the façade.
Messages include headlines, famous quotes
by such figures as Martin Luther King Jr.,
and sports news, including the latest on
the Houston Astros.
It's a way to reach out to the Cuban people,
U.S. officials say.
Miffed at such meddling, Cuban officials
this year erected 148 giant flag poles -
some of them 100 feet tall - to try to block
the board from view.
Workers also put up signs telling Cubans
that Bush wants to take away everything
they have - their homes, their free schooling,
free medical care.
Cubans take these warnings seriously, said
Marta Rojas, a Havana journalist who has
followed the revolution since the early
1950s.
"U.S. officials talk freely about
wanting to push the Castro government from
power. And they're spending millions of
dollars to try to do it."
Cubans fear Bush may even order an invasion,
and Communist Party loyalists are on heightened
alert.
Defenders of the revolution are stationed
on every block to monitor suspicious activities.
Plainclothes guards bolster hotels, regarded
as potential military targets. And police
monitor the roadways, stopping vehicles
at checkpoints day and night.
'Revolution is surviving'
U.S. Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez,
who fled Cuba with his parents in 1960 at
age 6, said America will help Cubans try
to build a democracy. But there are no plans
to invade, he said in an interview.
"President Bush recognizes that Cuba
belongs to the Cuban people and that the
future of Cuba is in the hands of Cubans,"
he said.
But don't expect any political changes
anytime soon, said Irving Horowitz, co-editor
of the book Cuban Communism.
"In the short run, the Communist Party
will remain the exclusive political source
of power and authority in Cuba," he
said. "Fidel has prepared carefully
for this contingency, and in Raul he has
a completely trustworthy ally."
So far, the Cuban government seems to be
running smoothly, ex-CIA analyst Brian Latell
said.
"The Cuban revolution is surviving.
It's surviving Fidel," said Latell,
author of After Fidel: The Inside Story
of Castro's Regime and Cuba's Next Leader.
But once Fidel Castro dies, his brother,
now 75, will be under great pressure to
improve people's lives, Latell said.
"Raul is going to face enormous challenges,"
he said. "I think he's going to have
to reform the economy."
'Begin a dialogue'
U.S. officials are also expected to step
up the pressure. But their hostility only
makes the socialist government more radical,
said Wayne Smith, the top U.S. diplomat
in Havana during the Carter administration.
"The best thing the United States
could do to encourage Cuba to move toward
a more open society would be to make it
clear that we have no hostile intentions
toward Cuba, reduce tensions and begin a
dialogue," Smith said. "Any time
the U.S. is threatening and pressuring Cuba,
the Cuban government will react defensively,
calling for ideological unity and for everyone
to rally against the U.S. threat. That produces
exactly the wrong atmosphere for any kind
of liberalization."
Landau agrees and expects the grudge match
over the beguiling island to continue, at
least while Bush is in office.
"It's an unsolved and unrelenting
low-level backache for the United States,
and it's not going to go away," he
said.
Chronicle reporters Patty Reinert and Dudley
Althaus contributed to this report; Althaus
was in Cuba in September and Eaton was there
in July.
tracey.eaton@chron.com
|