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Cuba's Communist Party vows continuation of revolution under Raul Castro

Patrick Lescot , August 15, 2006.

HAVANA (AFP) - Cuba's ruling Communist Party vowed that the revolution launched almost 48 years ago by the now 80-year-old and ailing Fidel Castro would continue under the leadership of his brother Raul.

The statement, published by the state-run newspaper Granma, came after Cubans saw the first photographs and video footage of the communist strongman since he announced on July 31 that he had undergone intestinal surgery and ceded power to Raul Castro, 75.

Authorities have stressed the handover was only temporary, but they also appear to be preparing Cubans for an eventual transition.

Rolando Alfonso, who heads the Communist Party's ideological department, wrote in Granma that Cubans were ready to defend the revolution "under the guidance of the party" and "the firm leadership of Raul."

"Recover, commander," he said in reference to Castro, adding: "Our people are guarantors, and you know it, that the revolution is here to stay."

On Sunday, when he turned 80, Castro said in a statement that although he was recovering, he was not out of danger. He urged Cubans to remain both optimistic and prepared for possible "bad news."

Sunday's statement was published together with the first photographs of the Cuban leader recovering from surgery. Another set of pictures was released on Monday, when Cuban television also aired video footage showing the bed-ridden Castro looking tired but upbeat during a birthday visit by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.

Castro was seen writing, eating yogurt, talking and joking with Chavez and with his brother and constitutionally designated successor.

Several people interviewed in the Cuban capital expressed certainty that Castro, who has led Cuba since 1959, would recover fully.

"Sure, it's the first time I've seen Fidel in bed in all my 44 years, but he looked good and I think he'll soon be back at work," Jorge Luis Ramos told AFP outside his arts and crafts shop in downtown Havana.

"The images are very good," said retail store worker Moraima Santos, 62. "Fidel is happy, he's a very strong man and he'll recover quickly. Sometimes we Cubans think Fidel will live forever, but now we're finding out he is only mortal, that he's after all flesh and bones."

In Miami, the mood was subdued among Cuban exiles, some of whom had danced in the streets on July 31 after learning of Castro's ill health.

"Only God knows when he will die, he looked very well considering he had an operation," said Orlando Perez, 79, chatting with friends at the Versailles restaurant -- a notorious gathering spot for anti-Castro exiles -- in Little Havana on Tuesday.

"There was excitement at first, but after a week everything returns to normal," said Perez. Talk at the restaurant quickly turned back to baseball, vacations and business.

The US administration has declined to comment on Castro's condition after the release of the pictures, but scoffed at the Chavez visit.

"I know President Chavez has made it a point to try to develop a very close relationship with Fidel Castro," said State Department spokesman Sean McCormack.

"That is his decision. I'm not sure that that's something that really burnishes his democratic credentials, but that's his decision to make," he said when asked about the birthday visit.

Meanwhile, Costa Rican President Oscar Arias reiterated his call for a democratic transition in Cuba.

"I advocate a change of regime, not a monarchal succession," said Arias, who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1987 for his efforts to pacify turmoil-torn Central America.

U.S.-Cuba trade iffy, even without Fidel

By Lauren Villagran, AP Business Writer. August 15, 2006.

NEW YORK - If Fidel Castro died tomorrow, the U.S. embargo against Cuba could not be lifted like any other - as President Bush undid by decree the 18-year trade sanctions against Libya in April or President Clinton lifted the 19-year ban against Vietnam in 1994.

The door to trade with Cuba is bolted by numerous laws which, over the 46 years since the initial ban took effect, stripped much of the power of trade policy from the president and gave it to Congress.

U.S. companies are looking at Cuba's potential but few will discuss it openly, citing the current status of the embargo. But for U.S. businesses eyeing the Cuban market - should the political situation on the island change - moving beyond the embargo will take nothing short of an act of Congress, according to John Kavulich, a senior policy adviser with the U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council.

"No matter what happens in Cuba, a provision of the Libertad Act of 1996 precludes the U.S. president from establishing normal economic and political relations with Cuba, as long as the government includes one of the Castro brothers," said Kavulich, whose New York-based group provides nonpartisan commercial and economic information about Cuba.

Castro, who turns 80 on Sunday, is said to be recovering from surgery that led him to temporarily cede power last month to his younger brother, Defense Minister Raul Castro. Neither of the brothers has made a public appearance since.

"Bush can't do the two biggies: He can't quote-unquote 'normalize' commercial, economic and political relations with Cuba - the Libertad Act says that decision belongs to the U.S. Congress," Kavulich said. "And secondly, he cannot unilaterally allow expanded travel to Cuba - that also is in the hands of the U.S. Congress."

The U.S. Treasury Department maintains that "legally, the president has significant flexibility to amend the embargo; however parts of that embargo are in place pursuant to legislation and would require congressional action," according to a spokeswoman.

Despite the political hurdles, U.S. companies have Cuba in their sights. Castro's hospitalization reminded U.S. companies that Cuba's status quo may be closer to change than it has seemed in decades.

"If you have a strategic plan for potential investment into Cuba, you should pull your plan off the bookshelf, dust it off and bring it up to date. We don't know how quickly opportunities in Cuba will develop," said Teo A. Babun, Jr. a Miami-based consultant to companies looking to expand into a post-embargo Cuba.

The roster of clients posted on his Babun Consulting Group Web site includes an international unit of packaged foods giant ConAgra Foods Inc., Radisson Seven Seas Cruise Line, computer maker Hewlett-Packard Co. and the Port of Delaware.

Babun said two types of companies would want to move quickly: Those looking for opportunities as government-owned companies privatize, such as infrastructure companies, and those that need access to materials or products for export, such as mining companies looking for access to Cuba's large deposits of nickel, which is used in stainless steel production.

The first companies to move in would likely be those that could rebuild that country's infrastructure, said Frank Nero, who heads the Miami-based Beacon Council, an economic development organization. That includes companies that manage or build airports, water and sewer lines; electric utilities; telecommunications providers and automakers, he said. The tourism industry would be quick to follow, he added.

But Babun cautions any transition to a more open market economy will likely be arduous.

"Do your plan, but don't buy an airline ticket and don't pack your bags," he said.

Legislation and presidential decree have made the economic relationship between the U.S. and Cuba more complex over the years. Additionally, many companies and individuals have claims on assets that were expropriated by the Cuban government after the 1959 revolution. Some 5,911 claims outstanding could be worth $7 billion today.

Medical products were approved for export under the Cuban Democracy Act in 1992. The 2000 Trade Sanction Reform and Export Enhancement Act reauthorized U.S. export of food and agricultural products but also codified narrow categories of U.S. travelers permitted to go to Cuba. In 2004, President Bush limited family travel to every three years versus the previously permitted annual visits. Bush also eliminated "fully-hosted" travel, under which travelers could go to Cuba if they assured the U.S. their visit would be paid for by someone not subject to U.S. law.

In another tightening of restrictions, foreign subsidiaries of U.S. companies were banned after 1992 from exporting products to Cuba. Before then, foreign divisions of Otis Elevators, Cargill, Ford and other large companies were all doing business on the island. In the last year of the program, U.S. companies exported some $700 million in products and services through foreign-based units, according to the U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council's Kavulich.

Today, the agricultural trade permitted under the 2000 act "is vibrant and is continuing to expand," said Kirby Jones, whose Washington-based Alamar Associates advises companies interested in doing business in Cuba. The country has become a top market for American rice, poultry and wheat, he said.

About 300 products are being sold to Cuba by 160 U.S. companies such as Tyson Foods Inc., Del Monte Foods Co. and Wm. Wrigley Jr. Co. Jones said.

"We believe Cuba could be an interesting market for us," said Antonio Ellek, co-founder and chief executive of Pasha's, a Miami restaurant chain that serves Mediterranean-style food. If the U.S. were to lift its embargo against Cuba, that country would be on Pasha's list of target markets.

Ellek, who spent four years with PepsiCo Restaurants - now Yum Brands Inc., the parent of KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell - witnessed the expansion of those brands in Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and other Latin American countries. He said he expects similar hunger for American brands in Cuba.

"We'll have to follow things very closely," he said. "There will be an uncertainty at the beginning; we'll have to evaluate that. But as entrepreneurs, we cannot wait for a perfect market opportunity, otherwise we'll be too late."

Baptist churches fined for banned activities in Cuba

AP, August 15, 2006.

WASHINGTON U-S Treasury officials have fined the Alliance of Baptists 34-thousand dollars after citing five of its member churches, including Birmingham's Baptist Church of the Covenant, for engaging in banned tourist activities in Cuba.

The alliance's executive director, The Reverend Stan Hastey (HAY'-stee), says the group will appeal the fine, which would constitute about ten percent of the Baptist group's operating budget.

The Treasury letter charges that church members did not engage in a full-time schedule of religious activities as required, but also visited Cuban craft markets and a beach resort.

But Hastey insists those activities were either part of, or incidental to the group's religious mission, and suggests that the Bush administration may have singled out the Alliance of Baptists because of its opposition to the U-S economic embargo of Cuba.

Volunteer doctors from Cuba tend sick children in Haiti

by Clarens Renois, August 14, 2006.

CANGE, Haiti (AFP) - "It hurts me to see children die before they even had a chance to live," says Estrella Torres, one of 600 Cuban doctors who work in Haiti, where life expectancy is only 52 years.

Haiti, with a population of just eight million people, is the poorest country in western hemisphere.

Its sanitation system is also the weakest in the Caribbean basin, and the central region of Haiti where Torres works is the most affected by public health problems.

Eighteen Cuban doctors work in this area.

In the pediatric clinic of the small community of Cange, about 140 kilometers (87 miles) east of the Haitian capital of Port-au-Prince, this 55-year-old pediatrician sees dozens of sick children everyday, brought by parents who are sometimes as sick as the babies.

Children's cries tear the heavy atmosphere.

Many Haitians are unable to afford the costly services of Haitian doctors. Wait time to be seen by one of the Cuban doctors can be hours.

"I take care of children who suffer from tuberculosis, AIDS or malnutrition," explains Torres.

"There is a lot of poverty and hunger here," she explains. "The children do not receive enough milk and often they die early."

Forty-two percent of Haitian children under the age of five suffer from moderate to serious stunted growth.

About 28 percent of deaths among children under five are caused by malnutrition and diarrhea, according to a UN report.

"In Cuba this problem does not exist," says Torres. "This problem was resolved in the 1970s."

She is glad the country now has a food distribution program launched by the World Food Program.

"My mission is a big life lesson," points out Torres, a native of Olguin province located east of Havana.

During her stay in Haiti, she worked with her Haitian colleagues.

"We exchanged professional information and work techniques," she says. "I have the impression that our presence here has helped improve the level of health care in the country."

In return, she has learned to speak Creole, the language used by the majority of Haitians, which has helped her better integrate in the community and fulfill her mission.

Reaching now the end of her stay in Haiti, she is looking forward to returning to Cuba where she will see her own children and her grandson.

But she hopes that situation for Haitian children will improve one day.

She dreams of taking a vacation and going to the beach, but is anxious to find out if another Cuban doctor will come to replace her.

Cuba also receives hundreds of Haitian students, who come to the island to study medicine and agriculture.

US won't comment on Castro's health after seeing photos

WASHINGTON, 14 (AFP) - The US administration declined to comment on Fidel Castro's condition after the publication of photos of the ailing leader, but reiterated its call for a democratic transition in Cuba.

"We have seen the photos of Castro. We are not in a position to characterize the state of Castro's health," said State Department spokesman Sergio Aguirre.

The pictures published in Cuba Sunday and Monday were the first showing Castro since he reportedly underwent gastrointestinal surgery two weeks ago.

Some of the pictures showed Castro with his Venezuelan counterpart and ally Hugo Chavez, and with his brother Raul Castro, 75, who is officially interim head of state until the communist strongman fully recovers.

As number two in Cuba's Council of State, Raul, also defense minister, is constitutionally designated to take over power in case of his brother's absence, illness or death.

"The Castro brothers are attempting to impose a dynastic succession with Raul as regent and heir-apparent," Aguirre told AFP.

"We believe that the Cuban people themselves should decide their future," he said.

Stations aim to promote change in Cuba

By Laura Wides-Munoz, Associated Press Writer. August 10, 2006.

MIAMI - As a taxpayer-funded radio and TV station run mostly by Cuban exiles expand broadcasts to Cuba in the wake of President Fidel Castro's ceding of power, they are also countering longtime critics who question their relevance, credibility and reach.

Congress has approved roughly $500 million for both broadcasts since Radio Marti opened 21 years ago, and TV Marti five years later, in an effort to promote the free flow of ideas within Cuba. In 2006, it approved $10 million to beam TV Marti into the island in addition to the stations' annual budget of $27 million.

But many say it is a waste of tax dollars because the Cuban government jams much of the TV signal.

"They were told 16 years ago that to transmit a TV signal that far, it would be child's play to block it out at the other end. It was child's play, and it's been blocked out," said Wayne Smith, head of the U.S. interests sections in Cuba from 1979 to 1985.

Because of the exiles' involvement, Smith said, those on the communist island believe the station, named for Cuban poet Jose Marti, has an anti-Castro bias. Many find it no more credible than private Miami-based AM stations that reach the island, Smith said.

A 1999 report by the State Department's Office of the Inspector General found that the radio station failed to meet Voice of America broadcasting standards and lacked external oversight.

"It became just another exile radio station, and people in Cuba recognize that when they hear it," Smith said of Radio Marti.

But Pedro Roig, an attorney and Bay of Pigs veteran who took over the U.S. Office of Cuba Broadcasting in 2003, which produces Radio Marti, said in recent years it has revamped broadcasts to focus more on news and ensure programs are more balanced.

"You've got to believe in the mission," Roig said. "The point is to show debate - that democracy is people expressing their ideas without reprisal."

On Saturday, TV Marti expanded its four-hour a night transmission to six days a week, using a new Lockheed Martin G1 aircraft to beat the jamming. The programming adds to weekly broadcasts transmitted since 2004 from an Air Force C-130 plane.

The new plane was unveiled days after an ailing Castro announced he was temporarily transferring power to his brother Raul.

Although anti-Castro messages remain the main dish for the stations, Roig said diverse viewpoints are encouraged.

"We have people who discuss the pros and cons of the U.S. embargo of Cuba, abortion, stem cells, so that they know there's not one dogma," he said.

The radio station transmits a mix of news from Cuba, the U.S. and around the world. This week the station has also been airing excerpts from a recently released presidential commission report on Cuba, and urging Cubans not to take to the sea in rafts.

The most popular show, Roig said, is a sitcom called "The Chief's Office," a satire on life behind the scenes in the fictional office of a military leader with an extraordinary resemblance to Fidel Castro.

The Office of Cuba Broadcasting, which oversees both stations, holds focus groups with recent arrivals to find out what they want to see and hear. TV Marti now beams several youth-oriented shows with pop music videos but no overt political themes.

The broadcasts can be significant as long as they encourage change without sounding as if they encourage "meddling in Cuban affairs," said Tomas Bilbao, executive director of the Cuban Study Group, a nonpartisan organization of business and community leaders.

"To the extent those messages are transmitted, it's a great thing," he said.

An independent survey by Intermedia Group pegged Radio Marti's listenership at roughly 1 million, though station officials acknowledge it is difficult to get accurate information.

"It's difficult to know," said Alberto Mascaro, chief of staff of the broadcasting office. "It's not like in a place like Cuba you can take a public poll."

US isolated in press for democratic change in Cuba

Antonio Rodríguez, August 9, 2006.

WASHINGTON (AFP) - The United States remains all but alone in its call for the international community to press for a democratic transition in Cuba following last week's provisional transfer of power from hospitalized President Fidel Castro to his brother Raul.

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on Friday came out to urge "democratic nations" to press for a transition in Cuba that would lead swiftly to multiparty elections, after communist Castro ceded his power, if temporarily, for the first time in almost 48 years.

The US call struck Ian Vasquez, an analyst at the Cato Institute here, as strange.

"The US policy (of isolating Cuba with sanctions) is one that nobody else agrees with. I really don't know what the US can do to convince other countries to promote democracy beyond publicly saying that democratization will be good," Vasquez said.

The caution that has been shown by European countries, most Latin American countries and Canada contrasts sharply with remarks by US President George W. Bush, who urged Cubans to push for democratic change.

"There is no sign whatsoever that the European Union will press for a democracy in Cuba now, when it is not known exactly what is going to happen, and even if Fidel Castro is going to return to power as before," said Marifeli Perez-Stable, vice president of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.

"For example I don't think that Spain is going to make any demands when it's not even known what the situation on the island is," she said, referring to the socialist government of Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, which pushed for a suspension of EU sanctions on Cuba after coming to power in April 2004.

Spain's Foreign Minister for now has kept his wishes to a "quick-as-possible recovery for Comandante Castro." France and other countries simply said they had taken note of the situation in Cuba.

On a visit to Colombia Wednesday, European parliament speaker Josep Borrell stressed that "the EU is prepared to play a role of moderation and cooperation very different from the one the United States might play."

Vasquez said that really, "it's not clear to me how much effort" Washington is "putting into trying to convince European countries to do something that they (the EU) are not likely to do anyway."

The State Department has not wished to discuss any contacts on this front.

"I don't think we discuss what we talk about with other countries," a State Department official said privately after refusing to say which capitals Rice might have contacted on democracy in Cuba.

In February, Rice called on the international community for a united front in Latin America to limit the influence of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, a Castro ally, whom she has painted as a danger for the region.

Her top diplomat for Latin America, Tom Shannon, traveled on that effort to Spain, Brussels, Paris and Rome.

Peter DeShazo, at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that "as a policy the United States has kept Cuba on the agenda with many other countries in Europe and Canada," to try to "encourage them to support policies that would help promote democracy, respect for human rights and transition to democracy in Cuba."

But despite such contacts Washington has yet to rally a unified front.

Perez-Stable did not rule out the possibility that the United States, the European Union and some Latin American countries might reach an agreement -- as long as it is in response to developments in Cuba which are not forced from outside.

Perhaps the lone regional voice informally in synch with US efforts is Costa Rican President Oscar Arias, a Nobel peace laureate.

Arias cancelled a meeting he was supposed to hold Monday in Bogota with Cuban Vice President Carlos Lage, because Lage was purported to have tried to restrict the agenda of the conversation.

Focus on post-Castro Cuba raises tricky question of compensation

Randy Nieves-Ruiz. August 9, 2006.

MIAMI (AFP) - Speculation about Cuba's political outlook without ailing President Fidel Castro at the helm has raised the tricky question of compensation for nationalized US property, which Washington may well end up bankrolling.

The list of claimants ranges from such business giants as Coca-Cola and Texaco to aging Cuban exiles whose properties were seized after the 1959 revolution that brought Castro to power.

The claims handled by the US government, together with interest, amount to eight billion dollars, according to Matias Travieso, a Washington lawyer who represents several companies involved in the dispute. Billions more are sought by Cuban-Americans who were not US citizens at the time of the expropriations.

When Castro refused to pay for the property his government grabbed, the US government retaliated by imposing an economic embargo on the Caribbean island in 1962.

In an ironic twist, the US taxpayer could one day end up financing the compensations, should communist-run Cuba head to the democratic transition Washington hopes will eventually take place.

"There would be a package of (US) aid that would have several components, and the Cuban government could use these funds for the compensation," said Travieso, who authored a study on the subject.

Nicolas Gutierrez, a Miami lawyer who represents 150 claimants, agreed.

"It is likely the US government will lend the new Cuban government the money with which the new Cuban government will pay for the certified list of claims," he said.

Lawyers dealing with the claims say they have seen renewed interest in the issue now that Castro has ceded the power he held for almost 48 years to his brother and designated successor Raul, 75.

Cuban officials insist Fidel Castro, who turns 80 on Sunday, will be back at the helm as soon as he recovers from surgery for intestinal bleeding, but a number of analysts are convinced his days in power are over.

US experts do not expect the younger Castro to bring about any significant changes, but have started discussing the island's post-Raul political future, saying he has a number of enemies, a weak liver and a drinking problem.

Gutierrez said that it could be a while before a Cuban government addresses the claims, but that he had told his clients to prepare for that day.

US President George W. Bush himself spoke of the issue on Monday, saying he hoped "Cuba has the possibility of transforming itself from a tyrannical situation to a different type of society."

He stressed that Cubans on the island should be given a chance to decide the future of their country before Cuban-Americans "take an interest in that country and redress the issues of property confiscation."

The influential Cuban-American National Foundation insisted exiles would not await political change on the island to get involved

But spokeswoman Camila Ruiz conceded it would be premature to take up the question of property claims at this stage, "particularly since the regime utilizes this issue to scare Cubans into thinking the exile wants to go back, retake their property, and kick people out of their homes."

Some US companies have decided they would forgo their claims in favor of a chance to set up shop again in Cuba once Washington lifts its trade embargo, experts say.

"Many multinational companies I have talked to say they will not seek compensation from the Cuban government, because they are much more interested in opportunities," said Jorge Pinon, a former Amoco executive and now a researcher at the Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Affairs.

Cuban officials criticize U.S. ruling

By Anita Snow, Associated Press, August 11, 2006.

HAVANA - Communist officials said Thursday a U.S. appellate court decision denying a new trial for five Cuban agents was proof of Washington's "hate and vengeance" toward Cuba, and they implied it was tied to Fidel Castro's illness and absence from power.

The men were convicted in 2001 of serving as unregistered agents of a foreign government. The 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in Atlanta on Wednesday rejected the argument that pervasive community prejudice against the Cuban government and publicity prevented them from receiving a fair trial.

The Communist Party daily Granma said the decision coincided with recent events in Cuba, where Castro temporarily ceded power to his brother, Raul, on July 31 after announcing he had undergone intestinal surgery.

Fidel Castro, who has ruled Cuba for 47 years and turns 80 on Sunday, has not been seen in public since the announcement. Neither has his brother.

"All of this occurs in an unusual way and at a time when Miami is calling for an end to a sovereign nation, calling for terrorism with the greatest insolence, urging bloodbaths, proclaiming to the news media in a loud voice their calls for political assassination and genocide," Granma said.

Gerardo Hernandez, Rene Gonzalez, Ramon Labanino, Fernando Gonzalez and Antonio Guerrero have acknowledged being Cuban agents, but maintain they were spying not on the United States but on exile groups they say were planning terrorist actions against their government.

Three of the men received life sentences; one was sentenced to 19 years in prison and the other 15 years.

A three-judge panel of the 11th Circuit threw out all the convictions a year ago, ruling that pretrial publicity combined with pervasive anti-Castro feeling in Miami didn't allow for a fair trial. The government asked the full appeals court to reconsider.

But the full appellate court Wednesday affirmed the earlier U.S. District Court decision in the case.

Among the options for the so-called "Cuban Five" is a possible appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court, said Leonard Weinglass, an attorney for one of men.

The tirade Thursday was the latest in ongoing accusations by Havana that Washington is trying to take advantage of Castro's current absence to destabilize Cuba.

The U.S. government this week scaled up transmissions by its TV Marti, which features anti-Castro programming. TV Marti's stated objective is to break Cuba's "information blockade" with its own current affairs shows by offering alternatives to state television programming, the only kind Cubans receive if they don't have TV satellite dishes.

Granma on Wednesday said a proliferation of illegal TV satellite dishes are capturing subversive propaganda that erodes Cuban morals and patriotic values as Washington increases transmissions of its own TV channel.

US speeds up plans for post-Castro Cuba

Antonio Rodríguez, August 8, 2006.

WASHINGTON (AFP) - The United States said it had stepped up planning for a Cuba without President Fidel Castro, steering a careful political course as intrigue deepened over the communist icon's fate.

"There are drafts and people are trying to think about what is going to happen should there be a change in the political situation in Cuba," said White House spokesman Tony Snow.

"If there is a change, a dramatic change in the political situation in Cuba, there may be adjustments in US policy," Snow told reporters in Crawford, Texas, near President George W. Bush's ranch.

After four-and-a-half decades hoping for the demise of Castro, who turns 80 on Sunday, the United States at first reacted cautiously to his surprise transfer of power to brother Raul, after surgery, announced on July 31.

Washington promised to stand by political activists who want to spark political change on the island, but called on Cubans to stay at home, worried that political tumult could spark mass migration to the coast of Florida.

The State Department has simultaneously warned that the transfer to authority to Raul Castro, 75, must not become permanent, saying that would just mean one dictator swapped for another.

"The Cuban people need to decide the future of their country," Bush said on Monday, in remarks seen as partly directed at the fiercely political Cuban exile community in the United States.

While it wants Cuba to track toward democracy, Washington, beset with a bevy of foreign policy crises, could do without a hard political landing on the island and a resultant humanitarian crisis.

"A wave of refugees towards Florida would not be good politics," Ian Vasquez, of the Cato Institute in Washington told AFP.

"Nobody wants destabilisation in Cuba, especially president Bush because he's get already too many things on his agenda on foreign policy."

The scale of any mass exodus could be immense -- in the last immigration crisis in 1994, a staggering 35,000 people crossed the Straits of Florida from Cuba, 90 miles (150 kilometres) off the US coast.

On that occasion, Cuban authorities did nothing to stem the flow of people leaving the country; analysts fear an even worse situation could arise if order breaks down in a post-Castro Cuba.

In recent days, the White House has been assessing how to prevent any such tsunami of refugees, the New York Times reported Tuesday.

Washington is likely to stick with its quota of 22,000 visas given to Cubans every year -- and will give priority to those who already have family members living in exile in Washington, the paper said.

Such a move is designed to strictly control the flow of legal immigrants, to ensure numbers remain manageable.

On the political front, the United States is readying financial aid to help unshackle the Cuban economy after decades of communist control, and will be ready to help bankroll any move toward democracy.

"The United States ... is planning to provide substantial support to help them rebuild their shattered economy," Caleb McCarry, Bush's Cuba transition coordinator, said on Fox News.

Washington would also "help provide specific support for getting to free and fair elections and also to provide specific support, as I said, to help them address the long humanitarian needs," he added.

Snow stressed that so far, there had been no change of longstanding Cuba policy, which stressed opposition to Castro, support for democracy on the island, and includes a trade embargo.

"I daresay if there were changes in Cuba and we had not thought ahead, the question would be, 'why didn't you think about changes that were taking place,'" he said.

Bush, operating in a potentially dicey congressional election year for his Republican Party must walk a fine line, as Cuban exiles form a crucial voting block in Florida -- the state that sent him to the White House after a disputed election in 2000.

His administration is aware Cuban exiles may press hard to tip the balance in Cuba and could spark political instability there -- especially as many want redress for assets seized by the communist government.

Once Cubans form a government, "then Cuban-Americans can take an interest in that country and redress the issues of property confiscation," Bush said in Texas on Monday.

The United States has called on its allies to help press for a democratic transition in Cuba.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on Sunday however denied Washington was trying to stoke a crisis in Cuba.

Mixed messages blur outlook for Cuba's ailing Castro

Isabel Sanchez

HAVANA, 8 (AFP) - A chorus of mixed messages was swelling as to whether and when Fidel Castro might return to power, just over a week after he shocked Cuba by ceding his authority temporarily for the first time in almost 48 years.

Vice President Carlos Lage was quoted in the Communist Party newspaper Granma as telling leaders on a visit to Bogota that Castro, whose 80th birthday is Sunday, was recuperating favorably after surgery and had appointed temporary replacements "until he is back on the job."

Asked when that might be, Lage said Monday: "In weeks, as he himself says."

But Roberto Fernandez Retamar, a member of Cuba's Council of State, estimated that it would take "several months" before Castro resumes his presidential functions.

Though the government position officially is that no transition has taken place and that Fidel Castro will be back, Fernandez Retamar was the first authority to allow that Cuba, much to US chagrin, has already pulled off a succession.

The United States "expected that it was not possible to go through a peaceful succession in Cuba; well, in fact, a peaceful succession has taken place in Cuba, and Raul (Castro) will address the people when he deems it appropriate," Fernandez Retamar said.

The Miami daily El Nuevo Herald reported from Havana, citing sources close to state health services, that Fidel Castro had undergone a successful colostomy but that his recovery could take a year if he does not have infectious complications.

Many Cuba experts in the United States believe that regardless of Castro's health, a succession has already occurred, with some even predicting that Raul Castro's reign would not last long.

Jaime Suchlicki, director of the Institute of Cuban and Cuban-American Studies in Miami, said that "succession has taken place" in Cuba, adding that if Castro were to return at all, "it will be in a ceremonial cap."

Speculation over the Havana regime has risen because neither of the two Castro brothers has appeared in public since the handover announcement.

In Crawford, Texas, US President George W. Bush admitted Monday that he, too, was in the dark about the condition of the Cuban leader. But he added that Cuba had the chance to become "a different type of society," insisting that "the people on the island of Cuba ought to decide" how that change occurs.

But anti-Castro groups in Miami disagreed with Bush's call for them to stand aside for the moment, saying that the Cuban exile community had a crucial role to play.

"Cuban-Americans have an interest in every aspect of transition in Cuba and what all of that involves, including how these claims will be handled in a post-Castro era," said Camila Ruiz of the Cuban-American National Foundation.

But she admitted it would be premature to address questions about billions of dollars in expropriated Cuban property at this stage, "particularly since the regime utilizes this issue to scare Cubans into thinking the exiles want to go back, retake their property and kick people out of their homes."

Analysts speaking Monday at a roundtable in Miami said the question is now how long Raul Castro would be able to perform the job he inherited.

"He drinks too much when he is under stress, and he's now likely to drink even more," said Brian Latell, who wrote a book called "After Fidel: The Inside Story of Castro's Regime and Cuba's Next Leader."

"We may see a succession that lasts a very short time," said Suchlicki, adding: "We have to look at the post-Raul era."

He described Raul Castro as "a Stalinist," who is "as brutal or more brutal than Fidel Castro."

"He is no reformist," said Suchlicki, stressing that Raul Castro was unlikely to introduce any significant economic or political changes, at least for the next year.

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