Cuba without Castro: seeds
of change finally sprouting
With Fidel Castro currently,
and perhaps permanently, not controlling
events in Cuba, how should the United States
react?
By John Hughes. The
Christian Science Monitor, August 9,
2006.
If there is one thing on which many Cuba-watchers
seem to agree, it is that we will not see
a seamless succession to Mr. Castro's brother,
Raúl. With or without Raúl,
a transition will take place, the shape
of which will involve changes not yet clear.
As one Cuban-American with good sources
within Cuba puts it: "When you break
an egg, you can make fried egg or scrambled
egg, but you cannot re-create the egg."
What the US would like to see is a dramatic
shift away from dictatorial rule, with Cuba
emerging as a democracy with a robust free-market
economy. Though Iraq and Lebanon dominate
the Bush administration's foreign policy
agenda, President Bush, Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice, and White House spokesman
Tony Snow have all taken time to stress
this in public statements. Concern about
Cuba's future has been heightened in Washington
since left-leaning Venezuelan leader Hugo
Chávez succeeded Russia as Cuba's
patron and savior, finding common political
cause with Fidel, and propping up Cuba's
ailing economy with subsidized Venezuelan
oil.
How can the US encourage reform and democracy
in Cuba? First, by encouraging a free information
flow to a country whose citizens have long
been subjected by its government to censorship
and propaganda.
I understand that TV-Marti and Radio Marti,
the US government-sponsored broadcasting
entities that beam news to Cuba much as
Radio Free Europe did to the captive nations
of Eastern Europe during the cold war, will
soon be operating on an extended basis from
EC-130E/J Commando Solo aircraft maintained
by the US Air Force. This airborne delivery
will hopefully overcome Cuban jamming, which
has prevented many Cubans from watching
and listening to these broadcast reports.
By this and other means, the US can support
the dissidents in Cuba and underline the
atrocious human rights records of the Castro
regime.
The US government has for some time been
working on plans to not only encourage the
freedom movement in Cuba today, but to support
a democratic transition tomorrow. The Commission
for Assistance to a Free Cuba made initial
recommendations in 2004 and, under the chairmanship
of Dr. Rice, updated them last month. Though
some of the report's findings are classified,
others in the public domain include recommendations
for support to Cuba in the aftermath of
transition. If needed and requested, the
US would provide humanitarian aid. It would
help Cubans get to free and fair elections
and with reorganizing their economy.
State department planners are wisely counting
on the international community's involvement
in hastening elections and accelerating
Cuba's reintegration into the world's economy.
This would lend credibility to the process.
It should not be seen as a narrow, American
go-it-alone effort. The commission says
Cubans living abroad could provide "much-needed
resources in the form of information, research,
and know-how, as well as remittances, loans,
and investment capital." The commission
tiptoes around the tricky question of restoring
confiscated property to Cubans in exile.
This, it says, must be settled by a new
elected government "enjoying widespread
legitimacy with the Cuban people."
One imponderable in the process of transition
would be the attitude of the Cuban Army.
Cubans close to the officer corps say it
is politically stratified by rank. The generals
are revolutionary comrades of Castro, dedicated
to retaining their authority and perquisites.
The colonels and lieutenant colonels, usually
trained by the Soviets, see themselves as
military professionals, possibly dutiful
to civilian direction. The captains and
lieutenants resent the perks of their superiors,
are suspicious of communism and politics,
and are more aware of the people's discontent.
Military officers at all levels are said
to be concerned about limited resources
and obsolete equipment.
From his sickbed, Castro is purported to
have declared his confidence that the Cuban
revolution he created will live on. While
he wielded repressive power for 47 years,
his charisma fueled the revolution at home
and dazzled fellow dictators around the
world. Now comes the time of reckoning.
John Hughes, a former editor of the
Monitor, is editor and chief operating officer
of the Deseret Morning News
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