CUBA NEWS
The Miami Herald

Havana security keeps U.S. in the dark

By Lesley Clark And Pablo Bachelet, pbachelet@MiamiHerald.com. Posted on Fri, Aug. 04, 2006

WASHINGTON - At a time when Fidel Castro is ill and his brother-successor is mysteriously missing from public view, the Bush administration is admitting that it's in the dark on what's really going on in the island 90 miles from Key West.

''Our insight into the decision-making process of . . . this particular dictatorship isn't that great,'' State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said Thursday, three days after Castro ceded power to his brother following what was described as complicated surgery to stem gastrointestinal bleeding.

''I don't think there are too many people outside that small core group of people who run Cuba who really know what is going on. I don't have an assessment for you on Fidel Castro's health,'' McCormack said.

President Bush issued a statement later saying the U.S. government is ''actively monitoring the situation in Cuba'' following Castro's temporary transfer of his powers to Defense Minister Raúl Castro, who has yet to make a public appearance.

But U.S. officials have confessed ignorance on events in Cuba in private encounters with lawmakers and other Cuba watchers, people in contact with administration officials say.

White House spokesman Tony Snow has attributed the lack of information to Cuba's status as a ''closed society'' -- a government controlled media and a long tradition of secrecy because of fears of U.S. attacks.

Sen. Mel Martinez of Florida, a Cuba native who has met with President Bush and other high-ranking administration officials in recent days, acknowledged Thursday that "sometimes people in Miami know more than what the government knows.''

''I've asked and we don't have any more information than what the Cuban government has released,'' Martinez said.

LIPS SEALED

The Bush administration is not alone in being mystified by events in Havana.

A diplomat with the Organization of American States, who asked for anonymity so as not to affect his country's relations with Havana, said the Cuban government has been ''pretty hermetically sealed'' since Monday. His embassy in Havana had no information on recent events, he said. The United States was ''blind down there,'' he said, because U.S. diplomats are confined to Havana and under heavy vigilance.

Another European diplomat who attended an encounter to discuss Cuba at the State Department said the administration "was as confused as we are.''

DOUBLE AGENTS

Cuba's highly regarded intelligence services also have been effective in denying the island's secrets to Washington. U.S. intelligence officials have acknowledged that nearly 20 U.S. ''spies'' in Cuba later turned out to have been double agents working for Havana.

Nearly 20 Cuban spies have been nabbed in the United States, including Ana Belén Montes, a top Cuba analyst with the Defense Intelligence Agency in Washington who was convicted of spying for Havana and is now serving a 25-year sentence.

When asked about what is happening in Cuba these days, officials repeat what has already been announced in Havana.

''What we hear, it appears that this is a . . . temporary handing off of power as Fidel Castro undergoes surgery,'' said Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez. He and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice co-chaired the multi-agency Commission for Assistance to a Free Cuba, which spent nearly six months drafting a 95-page report on what the United States should do to help bring democracy to Cuba.

''They've said very little. It's not as though it is an open free press whereby things are known on a timely basis,'' Gutierrez, a Cuban American, told The Miami Herald Wednesday.

SUSPICIONS

Asked if the entire event was actually a staged dress rehearsal for a future transition, Gutierrez said, ''I don't know'' but suspected darker motives. "There is plenty of experience . . . to suggest that things are never as they appear and that there is usually a hidden agenda behind just about everything that comes out of Cuba. What that agenda is, I don't know.''

Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R-Miami, a member of the House International Relations Committee, said she wasn't surprised the administration didn't have any solid intelligence on Cuba because most people in Cuba itself don't know much about what happens in the top levels of their government.

''I don't think anyone but maybe two or three people in that regime know what's going on,'' she said. "It's so tightly controlled and people know better than to leak, or they pay for it with their lives.''

'NOT WORTH IT'

She suggested it was too risky for the U.S. government to post agents on the island.

''And it's not been worth it,'' she said. "Because Castro's days are numbered one way or the other.''

Journalists denied entry at Havana airport

Journalists from around the world are rushing to Cuba to report on Fidel Castro's illness and transfer of power. But many are being turned away.

By Nikki Waller, nwaller@MiamiHerald.com. Posted on Fri, Aug. 04, 2006

Since Fidel Castro ceded power to his brother Raúl on Monday night, foreign journalists have been trying to get into Cuba to report on the unprecedented move.

But Cuban airport officials have barred at least 11 reporters from entering the country this week and ordered several others who managed to slip in to leave within 24 hours.

Cuba requires foreign journalists to obtain reporters' visas before arriving and then register with the International Media Center in Havana to obtain accreditation.

Applications for the journalists visas usually take three weeks; for many news organizations in South Florida, including The Miami Herald, those requests often go unanswered.

On Wednesday, five journalists, including a Miami Herald reporter, were stopped at José Martí International Airport outside Havana when they arrived on a COPA airlines flight from Panama hoping to gain entry as tourists.

Airport officials questioned the reporter, along with journalists from The Washington Post, the South Florida Sun-Sentinel and radio stations in Chile and Peru. They all were denied entry and put on outbound flights.

Journalists in Cuba said media outlets with offices in Havana had managed to slip in several extra reporters from abroad, without proper visas, to help out. But when they went to register with the media center they were ordered to leave.

Officials at the media center told journalists that while they understand the foreign media's interest in the story, all journalists must carry the appropriate visas.

The United States and several other countries also officially require foreign journalists to obtain special visas. This requirement is often ignored, however, and foreign journalists are rarely if ever checked for proper visas while reporting in the United States.

Also turned back were six journalists who tried to enter Tuesday on a Cubana airlines plane from Mexico. The group included Miami WPLG-ABC 10 reporter Glenna Milberg and a photographer and reporter from The Palm Beach Post, all seeking tourist visas.

''There was a significant number of journalists on that plane,'' said Palm Beach Post Managing Editor Bill Rose. "A number of those were sent home.''

The group was detained overnight in the baggage claim area at the airport, where some journalists stretched out on rows of seats to sleep. Over the 15 hours spent in the airport, Milberg said she made friends with airport workers and customs agents, even sharing her copy of Tuesday's Miami Herald.

''It was like Tom Hanks in The Terminal,'' she said, referring to the movie in which a man, trapped for months in an airport terminal, befriends the staff.

On Wednesday, the six journalists were permitted to roam the terminal until their flight left.

Milberg and her cameraman filmed the scene in the terminal and filed a report that aired on WPLG- ABC 10 Wednesday night.

The Spanish-language news agency EFE, which maintains a bureau in Havana, is waiting to obtain more journalist visas so its Havana staff can take a rest and prepare for whatever comes next, said Miami bureau chief Emilio Sánchez.

''Nobody knows what is going to happen in the next days or weeks,'' he said. He added that EFE has no plans to send journalists to Cuba as tourists, even though the wait for reporters' visas could be long.

''It's not easy to deal with the Cuban government. Every time you ask for something, they respond in a different way,'' he said.

Miami Herald staff writer Frances Robles contributed to this report.

Recent Cuban arrivals reticent about crisis back home

Conditioned to living under a controlling regime and fearing for their families, recently arrived Cubans are more cautious with what they say about the change in leadership.

By Oscar Corral, ocorral@MiamiHerald.com. Posted on Fri, Aug. 04, 2006

Fear ingrained in recent arrivals

For young Cuban immigrants recently arrived in Miami from the island, the last three days have been a haze of concern and of hope tempered by a residue of fear they brought with them from the communist island.

Take Yamilet Brisuela-Gómez, 26, a waitress at Tropical Restaurant in Hialeah who came from Cuba six months ago. She showed up Wednesday afternoon at the restaurant to collect a paycheck with two friends who arrived from Cuba three weeks ago.

When asked about Fidel's health and how she feels about the man who has led the country for 47 years, she hesitated to say anything. In Cuba, people who talk to journalists and criticize the government risk harassment and imprisonment.

''He hasn't harmed me,'' said Brisuela-Gómez of Castro. "My mother, my father, my whole family is in Cuba, and I don't know what they're thinking. I can't speak well or bad of Cuba, and if I speak bad, then they won't let me in to see my family.''

Yasel García, 28, piped in immediately. He is one of Brisuela-Gómez's friends who arrived three weeks ago.

''I don't wish anybody death,'' García said in Spanish, "But I left because things were not good there. I want Cuba to change a little because my family is there, and I wish them a better life.''

García, who spoke with his family on the island after the announcement that Fidel was ceding power to his brother, Raúl, said that Cuba is totally "tranquil.''

'Every five minutes they interrupt programming to say 'Keep calm. Nothing is happening,' '' he said.

Unlike Cuban exiles who arrived in the 1960s and '70s, the Cubans who have come to Miami recently were born and raised under the Cuban Revolution. They tend to be more apolitical and less zealous than older exiles.

U.S. government statistics show that more Cubans have arrived in the United States since 2000 -- at least 130,000 -- than during the entire Mariel boatlift. Their influx, while low-key, has helped quietly reshape South Florida.

Zuhali Reyes, 26, who arrived with García three weeks ago, explained the culture of fear that permeates Cuban society.

''I think most people want change,'' she said. "But they're scared. Scared of abrupt change. Scared of Raúl, who is more prone to war than Fidel because he heads the military. Over there, people have wanted change for years. . . . Right now, I'm scared for my family.''

Gumersindo Fernández, 39, fled Cuba in a boat bound for Honduras five months ago.

As he wiped his hands with a rag behind the counter at Tropical on Wednesday, he stopped his job and vented for about five minutes.

''I couldn't stand the regime,'' he said. "In Cuba, you have to leave. There is so much repression, unmasked.''

The butcher at the supermarket next door to Tropical came from Cuba four years ago. From what he remembers -- but tries every day to forget -- the government had total control over the people.

''People there can't rise up, they can't do anything because any protests or anything will be repressed,'' he said.

Castro's care uncommonly good

Fidel Castro is thought to be receiving treatment at an exclusive facility while ordinary Cubans struggle to find aspirin and bandages

By John Dorschner And Elaine De Valle. jdorschner@MiamiHerald.com Posted on Fri, Aug. 04, 2006

While Cubans on the street search desperately for black-market aspirin and Pepto-Bismol, Fidel Castro is reportedly being treated in an ultra-exclusive Havana hospital reserved for top officials.

Roberto Ortega, who served for 10 years as chief of medical services for the Cuban armed forces until he defected in 2003, believes Castro is being treated within a special medical compound in the Kohly neighborhood that's an enclave for the highest members of the government.

''It's like a spa with a lot of security,'' Ortega said.

Scholars at the University of Miami's Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Affairs also have sources saying Castro is at an exclusive hospital, but it might be near one of his homes in the Havana suburbs. A less likely possibility is CIMEQ, a Havana facility serving top military officers and foreigners with dollars.

The Cuban government is not saying where Castro is, and no medical personnel are known to be leaking the news -- perhaps discouraged by the Tuesday pronouncement that Castro's health is a matter of ''state security.'' That means anyone who reveals details about Castro's situation is committing high treason, which could be punishable by death.

Still, wherever he's being treated, experts say it's clear that Castro is receiving top treatment while regular people on the island struggle for bare medical necessities.

José, 54, a retired coach in Havana whose son in Miami sends him medicines, says there's a huge black market for items as basic as Advil and Extra-Strength Tylenol. ''I can't keep them for much longer than a week,'' said José, who didn't want to give his last name.

Hilda Molina, a brain surgeon in Havana, said the black market now includes physician services. ''The doctors in the hospitals are charging patients under the table for better or quicker service,'' she said. She knows people who pay $50 or $60 for X-rays.

Molina, who once headed Cuba's National Center for Neurological Restoration, broke with the regime about 12 years ago after she was denied permission to travel to Argentina to visit her son.

''It's very difficult to get any kind of medicine here,'' Molina said Thursday in a telephone interview from her Havana home. "One tablet of meprobamate, a muscle relaxant, goes for between $1 and $5 in the Cuban convertible currency. That's not for a bottle. That's for one tablet.''

Official statistics indicate that by one measure -- life expectancy -- Cuba is doing quite well: The average Cuban male lives 75.2 years, compared with the American male's 74.5.

But Juan A. Asensio, a trauma surgeon at the University of Miami and a Cuban American who has studied the island's medical system, questions first whether such figures can be trusted. What's more, Cubans may be helped more by the simplicity of their lifestyle than their medical care. "No McDonald's, and Cubans walk everywhere or ride bikes because they can't afford cars.''

Meanwhile, Ortega believes Castro is probably being treated in a medical compound on Calle 49 near the Almendares River -- in the Kohly area reserved for members of the Politburo and other high officials in the government. The compound, in a residential neighborhood, has converted mansions into clinics for dentistry and other needs, and added a large building for high-tech surgery and intensive care.

''It's like a luxury hotel,'' said Ortega. ''It has a cafeteria, a restaurant, a pool, saunas, physical therapy offices.'' Those who work there are either members of the interior ministry or they have been checked and approved by Cuban intelligence.

The other highly exclusive hospital is CIMEQ -- the Center for Investigations of Medical Surgeries -- which has a website intended to lure foreigners. Ortega says a floor at CIMEQ is reserved for the use of Fidel and his brother Raúl, but the Kohly facility is newer and more secure -- and that is the most likely place to treat them.

Andy Gomez, a scholar at UM's Cuban Institute, agrees that it's unlikely that Castro is at a facility that serves foreigners.

Jaime Suchlicki, director of the UM institute, said that, while the Communist-run government in Cuba may boast of free and universal healthcare, it practices medical apartheid.

''There are three tiers of hospitals in Cuba. One is for the average Cuban, which is lousy, has very poor facilities, poor medication and so forth,'' said Suchlicki. "The second one is the one for tourists and medical tourism, where there is very good equipment. The third is for high government officials and they are also very good.''

Ortega said Castro uses the country's medical industry as a ''political instrument,'' sending thousands of doctors out to Venezuela and elsewhere.

Those doctors get seven years of training, but not of the highest quality, Ortega said. In the old days, each medical student might have three or four patients to study in a ward. Now, it's likely to be four students huddled around one patient, Ortega said.

What's more, doctors earn the equivalent of $10 or $20 a month. To survive, many rent out their cars to drivers who chauffeur tourists or take drugs and supplies from hospitals to sell on the black market.

José, the Havana coach, said that when a neighbor in the the Santos Suarez area of Havana went to the hospital after a car accident, family members had to take bedsheets and towels because on the rare days they were provided by Covadonga Hospital, they were ripped and dirty.

They also took aspirin because the hospital staff would not give it to him as often as he wanted -- as well as daily meals, soap, shampoo and toilet paper because the hospital supplied none.

Miami Herald staff writer Betsy Martinez contributed to this report.

Reporter's notebook: Bush pledges support

Posted on Fri, Aug. 04, 2006.

WASHINGTON - President Bush on Thursday issued a blunt call to Cubans to work for democracy on the island, saying the United States would support them in their efforts.

The statement came amid widespread uncertainty over the true state of Fidel Castro's health. The Cuban government says he is recovering from intestinal surgery.

''I encourage all democratic nations to unite in support of the right of the Cuban people to define a democratic future for their country,'' Bush added. "I urge the Cuban people to work for democratic change on the island.''

Bush, reiterating statements made by the administration in the past, also said the United States will "take note of those, in the current Cuban regime, who obstruct your desire for a free Cuba.''

-- PABLO BACHELET

CASTRO'S DAUGHTER

NEW YORK -- (AP) -- With Cuban leader Fidel Castro ailing after 47 years in power, CNN said Thursday it had hired his estranged daughter, Alina Fernández, as a network contributor.

Fernández, who was 3 years old when Castro took power and had sporadic contact with him, left Cuba disguised as a Spanish tourist in 1993. She eventually moved to Miami, where she is a radio host and the author of Castro's Daughter: An Exile's Memoir of Cuba.

''At this critical point in history as a Cuban, it's important for me to draw the world's attention to the situation inside Cuba,'' she said.

$80 MILLION IN AID

WASHINGTON -- A bipartisan group of senators raced Thursday to push through legislation that would provide up to $80 million to help foster democracy in Cuba.

The legislation, sponsored by Sens. Bill Nelson, D.-Fla., and Mel Martinez, R.-Fla., of Florida, and Sen. John Ensign, R-Nev., authorizes the United States to spend the money to promote democracy through assistance to political prisoners and dissidents, workers' rights organizations, independent libraries, journalists, doctors and economists.

''The timing of it I think would send a very powerful signal to those proposing democracy in Cuba,'' Ensign said. "It's showing that this is how strongly we feel in the U.S.''

-- LESLEY CLARK

FLOTILLAS READY

From a small podium in Miami's Versailles Restaurant, Ramón Saúl Sánchez made a big announcement: Flotillas are ready to go to Cuba.

Sánchez is the leader of the Democracy Movement, a group that has led flotillas from Miami in an attempt to reach Cuba for more than a decade.

Sánchez believes that under international law, Cuban exiles have the right to return to the island. What's more, he says he'll return, with or without the permission of President Bush.

The planes and vessels could be ready to go in as little as three days, he said.

''We understand that the United States has to protect its borders,'' Sanchez said. "But we do have a legal right and a moral duty to go to our country, and to give humanitarian aid.''

KATHLEEN McGRORY

Fidel's disappearance has Havana on edge

Miami Herald Staff Report. Posted on Thu, Aug. 03, 2006

HAVANA - In the colonial-era heart of the Cuban capital, tourists milled about Wednesday snapping photos of a weathered Cuban woman puffing a cigar, while banners proclaiming, ''Viva Fidel! 80 More Years,'' hung from an occasional window.

But whether Fidel Castro will indeed make it to his 80th birthday on Aug. 13 remained far more uncertain in this city than the banners predicted.

Across the decaying neighborhoods and districts where most Havana residents live and work, life chugged on as usual, seemingly unaffected by Castro's stunning announcement Monday that he was temporarily ceding power to his brother Raúl because of a health crisis.

Manuel, a 68-year-old former mechanic who declined to give his last name, picked through a seller's blanket full of washers laid out on the ground and then reached into his pocket for a bottle of rum.

''Fidel, Raúl, it's all the same,'' he said, taking a swig. "Nothing's ever going to change.''

But many others said they felt tension -- an undercurrent strengthened when authorities ordered stepped-up patrols by neighborhood watch groups, and then announced Wednesday the suspension of the annual carnival, the city's oldest and most popular fiesta, planned for this weekend.

''There's a real calm out there, the kind of calm when you know something is about to happen but you don't know what it is -- a tranquillity everyone knows is false,'' said Miriam Leiva, a member of the dissident group Ladies in White.

But calm does not always mean support for the system.

Jorge, a car parker in Old Havana who yearns to leave for the United States, said he has stayed up for the past two nights watching footage of Miami's cheering exile crowds on CNN en Español.

''Nothing has changed,'' he said wearily, "but [the celebrations] looked good to me.''

''They're not [celebrating] here . . . but they want to be,'' said Fernando, a worker at a nearby tourist restaurant who also declined to give his last name.

'TERMINALLY ILL'

A spokesman for the U.S. diplomatic mission here said that while he would not comment on Castro's health, there's a consensus emerging on the streets that the Cuban leader is ''terminally ill'' and will not return to power.

In an e-mail to The Miami Herald, U.S. Interests Section spokesman Drew Blakeney also said there had been a ''modest'' increase in security throughout Havana since Castro's announcement, and that additional police, civil-defense and military units have been called up.

WATCH GROUPS MEET

Local Committees for the Defense of the Revolution, the pro-government neighborhood watch groups known as CDRs, and many workplaces are holding ''reaffirmation meetings'' to implore the Cuban people to keep faith in the regime, Blakeney wrote.

The CDR's national coordinator urged members to intensify their patrols, Radio Reloj reported, and the pro-government Rapid Action Brigades, used in the past to handle domestic disturbances, were placed on standby.

State-run Cuban television continued showing Tuesday night's message purportedly from Castro saying that his health was ''stable'' and that he was in good spirits. It also showed workers rallying in provinces across the island and broadcast a message from the so-called Cuban Five, convicted of spying-related charges in Miami and now serving U.S. prison sentences.

''The Five wish you well, Comandante,'' the message said.

Government-run newspapers followed the same theme.

''Fidel, Get Well,'' read the front-page headline in the Communist Party's Granma daily. ''The Revolution Will Continue While Fidel Recovers,'' proclaimed Juventud Rebelde, the Communist Youth's newspaper.

In the central region of Santa Clara, dissident Luis Ramón Hernández said by telephone that about 60 people, mostly neighborhood CDR members, had gathered in front of his house at 8 p.m. Tuesday and shouted pro-Castro slogans.

''Like they were giving me a warning, a message that I can't do anything because they will take measures immediately,'' he said, adding that his house also is being watched by what he believes to be state security agents.

NO EXODUS

U.S. Coast Guard Cmdr. Jeff Carter said Wednesday in Washington that U.S. intelligence agencies have seen no indication of a mass movement of Cubans to or from the United States since Castro stepped down.

Blakeney, the U.S. Interests Section spokesman, said the Cuban government "continues to absurdly insist that the United States poses an imminent danger to the Cuban people.''

To counter anti-American messages, Blakeney said the mission is broadcasting announcements from an electronic ticker on its building on Havana's Malecón seaside avenue, along with ''other means at our disposal'' to communicate with the Cuban people.

This article was reported by a Miami Herald staff writer in Havana as well as Elaine de Valle, Frances Robles and Nikki Waller in Miami. Herald translator Renato Pérez also contributed. This story was compiled by staff writer Gail Epstein in Miami.

Many are asking: Where's Raúl Castro?

Fidel Castro's brother is still out of sight, and it remains to be seen if he can step from his brother's shadow to lead Cuba.

By Frances Robles. Posted on Thu, Aug. 03, 2006

Two days after Cuban leader Fidel Castro handed the reins of power to his brother Raúl, the newly named acting president has yet to appear in public.

While experts speculate that the defense minister-turned-president is busy in high-level meetings mobilizing the armed forces -- or even planning his brother's funeral -- the question remained: Where is Raúl?

''Raúl should make a speech, let us know he's around,'' said Eugenio, who makes a living driving a taxi in Havana and declined to provide his last name.

A man widely considered to be the world's longest-serving minister of defense now finds himself catapulted into one of the most powerful jobs in the hemisphere. But it remains to be seen whether Raúl Castro -- a killer in the 1950s, super-efficient organizer of a powerful army and considered by some to be a potential economic reformer -- can step from his brother's shadow to lead Cuba.

Raúl Castro's lack of visibility underscores the vast differences between the brothers, who have been at each other's sides in government for 47 years, but with considerable differences in style.

Where Fidel loves the limelight, Raúl appears to abhor it. Where Fidel is a one-man show who relies largely on his own instincts, Raúl is a consummate team player who solicits opinions.

Surrounded by trusted loyalists, Raúl Castro runs the armed forces, one of Cuba's most successful institutions. He was at the helm when the military was fat at more than 150,000 members with Soviet money and equipment -- and presided when it needed to be slimmed down to about 50,000 and converted into a haven for commercial entrepreneurs.

PUBLICITY SHY

Experts say the publicity-shy younger brother offers a sound management style backed by the allegiance of his troops.

'' Raúl is human. Fidel is not,'' said Roberto Ortega, a former colonel who headed medical services for the armed forces and who now lives in Miami. "But don't misunderstand me: Raúl has been doing Fidel's dirty work for years.''

Fidel Castro announced Monday night that a heavy travel schedule triggered intestinal bleeding and required ''complicated'' surgery, so after 47 years running Cuba he was temporarily turning authority over to his brother.

Their sister Juanita Castro, who owns a pharmacy in Miami, said she learned via a telephone call she made Wednesday morning to an unidentified person on the island that her brother was out of intensive care.

''That's all they would tell me,'' she said.

Assembly President Ricardo Alarcón, interviewed Wednesday by Democracy Now!, a New York City-based independent TV program, said he spoke to Fidel Castro Monday and again Tuesday about world affairs.

''I must say that he's perfectly conscious,'' Alarcón said. "He's in very good spirits, as always.''

In another interview, with National Public Radio Alarcón declined to say what illness Castro was suffering from but he acknowledged that "it is a serious matter.''

Experts say Raúl could be taking the back stage because Fidel is still alive, alert and calling the shots. If Fidel is expected to recover, Cuba watchers say, then it would be important for the Cuban government to project the notion that they have one president: Fidel.

Raúl is probably busy mobilizing forces to be on alert but will raise suspicions if he does not appear publicly soon, experts said.

''I knew he would not be on the Round Table [Cuban government TV show] Tuesday night -- that's just not his style,'' dissident journalist Miriam Leiva said by phone from Havana. "But now it's been 48 hours and he hasn't shown his face. That's strange.''

And so while Raúl is considered far less doctrinaire than Fidel on economic issues and likely to consider some reforms along the lines of China's system, no drastic moves are expected soon.

''As long as Fidel is alive, there won't be any change of any sort,'' said Richard Gott, author of the book, Cuba: A New History. 'It would be impossible for him to change things and then have Fidel come back and say, 'What on Earth have you been doing in my absence?' ''

Despite living in his brother's shadow for more than 50 years, Raúl has had ''an extraordinary career,'' Gott said.

The Castro brothers were raised in the eastern village of Birán and both attended Belén Jesuit school in Havana. The school later moved to Miami. They took up arms together at the start of the revolution in 1953 and were both jailed.

Armando Lago, an economist compiling a list of every person killed in the name of the Cuban revolution, says that as a governor of Oriente province, Raúl Castro was personally responsible for 550 executions in 1959 alone. About 100 of them took place without a trial, Lago said.

''He's ruthless. He loves blood,'' Lago said. "He personally gave coup de grace shots. Fidel has never done that. But he reorganized the military, made them all rich, and the military is the only thing that works in Cuba.

"I think it's a disaster. I don't think this guy can lead Cuba anywhere with his record of executions.''

Former CIA analyst Brian Latell, author of After Fidel: The Inside Story of Castro's Regime and Cuba's Next Leader, said Raúl has management qualities Fidel lacks. He's a great backroom dealer and is more inclusive in his decision making, Latell said.

But the 75-year-old is known to have a drinking problem.

''He certainly has had a record of terrible, terrible brutality and cruelty, but I don't think he's a sociopath,'' Latell said. "Raúl shares. Fidel doesn't share.''

LACK OF APPEAL

But virtually all experts agreed that Raúl's largest failing is that he doesn't have his brother's personal appeal.

''He can mobilize the army but he doesn't have the charisma to mobilize the people,'' said Berta Mexidor, founder of Cuba's independent library system who now lives in Mississippi. "He is a strong man, a military man, but he is also an old man.''

Fidel Castro has stressed the importance of tapping into a new generation of younger leaders. A new Communist Party executive committee named last month included several younger, longtime loyalists.

When Castro doled responsibilities to his trusted inner circle Monday night, he included Foreign Minister Felipe Pérez Roque, 41, and 54-year-old Vice President Carlos Lage -- but left out Alarcón, who is 69.

Raúl ''doesn't have the intelligence of Fidel, or the charisma. He rings false,'' said former rebel leader Huber Matos, who arrived here in 1979 after 20 years in prison. "If you sit down with him, it doesn't take long to realize this is a guy trying to be something he's not. It will be difficult for Raúl to run Cuba. Very difficult.''

Miami Herald staff writer Luisa Yanez and translator Renato Pérez contributed to this report.

Some exiles fearful of deportation

Some exiled Cubans convicted of crimes are afraid that a turnover in Cuba may trigger orders for their deportation.

By Alfonso Chardy, achardy@MiamiHerald.com. Posted on Thu, Aug. 03, 2006

When Miami Cuban exile David Sebastian heard Fidel Castro ceded power, joy and fear gripped him. He was happy for the future of his country, but alarmed about his own future.

''I was very concerned for myself,'' Sebastian, 40, told The Miami Herald. 'My [17-year-old] daughter took me aside and said, 'Daddy, what does this mean to you?' and then she started crying.''

Sebastian, convicted in the 1990s on charges of selling stolen marine equipment, is among the more than 29,000 Cuban exiles who may have no choice but to return to Cuba if there's a leadership change and democracy reigns on the island.

The vast majority are criminal convicts who under laws approved by Congress in 1996 are subject to deportation.

Removals have been put on hold because Cuba refuses to take back those exiles, and the United States has not pushed the issue in years.

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement provided statistics Wednesday showing there are 29,079 Cuban nationals with final deportation orders, most under supervised release and some in custody.

U.S. officials and some immigration experts believe it's premature to speculate about deportations.

''Even if change came to Cuba, we don't know if the policy about not taking back people with final orders will change,'' said Miami immigration attorney Ira Kurzban, considered an authority on national immigration law.

Linda Osberg-Braun, another South Florida immigration attorney whose clients include prominent Cuban nationals with final deportation orders, said she doubted removals would occur anytime soon.

''I don't think Raúl will change the dictatorship of Cuba, and Cuba will continue to be an oppressive dictatorship,'' Osberg-Braun said. "Therefore, I do not believe relations will change or that we will develop a repatriation agreement with Cuba.''

There's nothing in immigration law spelling out what conditions must exist in Cuba to begin deportations. A clue to a possible trigger is contained in 1996 laws requiring mandatory deportations of foreign nationals convicted of aggravated felonies.

A fact sheet on the website of U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services -- www.us cis.gov -- says a provision included in the 1996 law calls for the "conditional repeal of the Cuban Adjustment Act upon the establishment of democracy in Cuba.''

The Cuban Adjustment Act is a 1966 law that allows Cubans to apply for permanent residence one year after arriving in the country.

Though democracy is still far from reality in Cuba, that doesn't mean exiles with final removal orders aren't worried.

'The minute I heard, I thought, 'What's going to happen to me now?,' '' said Sebastian, a paralegal in a Coral Gables immigration attorney's office. "The same thought likely crossed the minds of thousands of other Cuban exiles in the same situation.''

Sebastian says his criminal conviction should be irrelevant because it happened after he became a citizen, thus shielding him from deportation. But immigration authorities insist he is not a citizen because he missed two naturalization ceremonies, and the courts have agreed -- though the reason he didn't show up was because notifications went to the wrong address. The U.S. Supreme Court declined to hear the case in April.

Luis Enrique Daniel Rodríguez, a former Cuban state security official suspected of persecuting Cuban dissidents, also has a final deportation order. Rodríguez was put on supervised release last year. He could not be reached for comment but his attorney, Leonardo Viota Sesin, said Wednesday that his client "likely is concerned.''

A significant number of exiles with final deportation orders -- 10,386 -- arrived during the 1980 Mariel boatlift.

Hundreds of Mariel convicts were in custody awaiting removal, but the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against indefinite detention. The majority of those convicts -- more than 700 -- were released last year.

Another category of Mariel detainees is on a dwindling list of 2,700-plus that the Cuban government agreed to take back in negotiations with the Reagan administration in the 1980s. More than 1,700 have been deported, but about 1,000 remain on the list.

ICE statistics show that 18,693 non-Mariel Cubans have final deportation orders -- with 235 in custody.

Among prominent Cuban exiles who could be deported is Jorge de Cárdenas -- once a powerful lobbyist and political strategist convicted in the 1990s in connection with a Miami corruption scandal.

Reached at his office Wednesday, de Cárdenas indicated he was not too concerned. His nephew, Jorge Felipe de Cárdenas Agostini, also faces deportation.

Immigration agents detained him in 2004 on suspicion of supervising a team of torturers who targeted anti-Castro dissidents while working for the Cuban Ministry of the Interior.

De Cárdenas Agostini's attorney, Osberg-Braun, denied the allegations and said her client was persecuted by the Castro regime.

Friends said it was because of his association with Lt. Col. Antonio de la Guardia, executed after drug-trafficking trials in Havana. De la Guardia and Gen. Arnaldo Ochoa were executed in 1989. Some Cuban affairs experts believe the executions amounted to a purge of officers who threatened Castro's rule.

De Cárdenas Agostini testified during the deportation trial against his uncle. It was then that he allegedly made statements that immigration officials later used to trigger a deportation order in his case. De Cárdenas Agostini was released last year, also under supervised conditions.

Notebook: Cuba turns four journalists away

Posted on Thu, Aug. 03, 2006.

Cuba turned back at least four foreign journalists who tried to enter the island Wednesday to cover Fidel Castro's health crisis and has been denying or not replying to other foreign media's requests for reporter visas.

The four -- three from U.S. media and a South American -- were on a commercial flight from Panama to Cuba but were turned back at the Havana airport and were forced to take the return flight to Panama, one of the journalists said.

Cuba also has been denying or not replying to foreign media requests for journalists to cover the story of Castro's surrender of power, officially temporary, after he underwent surgery for gastrointestinal bleeding.

RESERVISTS CALLED UP

The Texas-based Stratfor, a private strategic analysis company with good contacts in the U.S. intelligence community, reported Wednesday that the Cuban military has begun to call up reservists.

''Cuba's military committees, which serve the same function as U.S. draft boards, began mobilizing registered young men Aug. 1 after the announcement of Fidel Castro's transfer of power to his brother Raúl,'' Stratfor said in one of its daily reports. "Registration is mandatory and lasts until the age of 45.''

LIVE TV FROM HAVANA

Miami's WSBS-Mega TV, Channel 22, Tuesday broadcast a live three-hour special from Havana, Cuba Without Castro, anchored by María Elvira Salazar, host of the channel's Polos Opuestos TV show.

The program included analysis from Angel Tomás González, correspondent for the Spanish daily El Mundo, and exiled activists and analysts such as former political prisoner María Elena Cruz-Varela and anti-Castro activist Frank Calzon.

AN EYE ON WEATHER

KEY WEST -- U.S. Coast Guard spokesman Mike Bell said Wednesday there was some extra activity occurring at the station there, but caused by Tropical Storm Chris and not by the situation in Cuba.

''As with everybody in the Keys, we're preparing for Chris -- making sure everything is buttoned down,'' Bell said.

On Cuba, Bell said: "It's the same as we reported [Tuesday]. We're just keeping an eye on the situation. We haven't really changed our planning or deployed units or personnel.''

-- CAMMY CLARK

NEW POLICY INITIATIVES

Miami's three Cuban-American congressional representatives said Wednesday that the Bush administration is poised to roll out new policy initiatives to try to speed up a democratic transition in Cuba at a time when Raúl Castro is temporarily in power.

The White House will announce the policy initiatives over the next few days, said U.S. Rep. Lincoln Díaz-Balart. He declined to provide details.

''There are going to be a series of announcements,'' Díaz-Balart said. "We are not going to make them today.''

One possible change is that the United States may move to deny any type of entry into this country to people who commit violence or harassment against dissidents and pro-democracy activists on the island. On Tuesday, congressional representatives announced that the U.S. government is keeping a list of names of people who violate human rights on the island.

OSCAR CORRAL

Increasing Cuba broadcasts a top U.S. priority

The Bush administration is accelerating post-Castro planning and looking for ways to broadcast information into Cuba.

By Oscar Corral And Pablo Bachelet. Posted on Thu, Aug. 03, 2006.

WASHINGTON - Lacking hard facts about what is happening in Cuba after Fidel Castro ceded power, the Bush administration has accelerated its planning for a Cuban transition and is exploring new ways to broadcast information to the island.

''We don't know what the exact situation is with respect to Castro's health and the political situation,'' a senior government official said. "But the mandate from the president is for us to stay focused on helping the Cuban people transition to democracy. That's where the wheels of government . . . are in motion.''

Even before Monday's announcement, the Bush administration had established a Cuba Transition Policy Coordinating Committee (PCC), co-chaired by Caleb McCarry, the State Department's Cuba transition coordinator, and Daniel Fisk, the National Security Council's Western Hemisphere director.

''There is an interagency process focused on Cuba transition that is underway and that has been in existence before Monday,'' said the official, who requested anonymity because of government rules. "We've clearly picked up the pace.''

MORE RADIO MARTI

Officials are also looking at ways to get Radio and TV Martí broadcasts into Cuba quickly but were cautious on committing to using a Department of Defense aircraft because of logistical reasons.

The additional broadcasting hours was one of the key requests by a group of Cuban-American lawmakers who met Wednesday morning with National Security Council and State Department officials at the White House to discuss Cuba.

At the moment, a U.S. military C-130 aircraft beams the stations' programs to Cuba for only four hours on Saturday evenings.

'We want to put the emphasis on 'let's get the message there the best way,' not say 'it has got to be this mechanism or that one,' '' the official said.

The Commission for Assistance to a Free Cuba recommended using third-country broadcasts to Cuba, which is surrounded by nations whose signals can be picked up on the island.

In a letter to Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, Sen. Mel Martinez, a Florida Republican, urged the administration to make an aircraft available on an interim basis. ''In light of recent developments on the island, the importance of communicating directly with the people of Cuba is critical,'' the senator said.

The Department of Defense has not yet said whether it would make the craft available.

Radio and TV Martí are expected to get their own aircraft, but those broadcasts won't start until the end of August, at the earliest, according to people familiar with the stations' operations.

Miami Republican Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen said she was confident the White House understood the urgency of the additional airborne broadcasting hours, given the volatile political situation in Cuba.

WARNING TO MILITARY

She told The Miami Herald after the White House meeting that the broadcasts should send a message of ''hope to the Cuban people'' and a message to the Cuban armed forces "not to shoot their [civilian] brothers and sisters.''

Miami Republican Reps. Lincoln and Mario Díaz-Balart also attended the meeting. On the Senate side, Florida Sens. Martinez and Bill Nelson, a Democrat, were joined by New Jersey Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez.

Cuba, arguing that Radio and TV Martí broadcasts are illegal, regularly tries to jam the stations' broadcasts. Jamming an airborne signal is more difficult and more expensive, experts say.

Roger Noriega, the former assistant secretary of state for the Western Hemisphere, said many months ago the State Department had begun drawing up a ''ticktock on what we do, hour one, day one, and week one'' from the moment Fidel Castro retired from power.

''One of the key things that we identified as a challenge is to communicate with the security forces about their accountability for any violence,'' he said.

Miami Herald staff writer Lesley Clark contributed to this report.

Exiles' generation gap closes in Miami

In Miami, young Cuban Americans have filled street parties, craving for a Castro-free Cuba -- just as their grandparents hoped they would.

By Susan Anasagasti, Posted on Thu, Aug. 03, 2006.

Move over Pitbull, make room for Willy Chirino.

In the midst of the celebrations in Little Havana and Westchester, young people whose grandparents taught them about communist Cuba are the ones taking to the streets, chanting, "Cuba Sí, Castro No.''

And instead of rapping along with Pitbull, a 23-year-old Cuban American, the crowd swayed to the beat of Chirino's freedom-drenched salsa lyrics.

The original wave of Cubans, who came to Miami in the early 1960s -- many too frail now to dance themselves -- observed the partying from the sidelines this week. One of them was the Rev. Martin N. Añorga, 79, who fled the island in 1962. When Añorga first got word that Fidel Castro had handed power to his younger brother, Raúl, he headed to Little Havana.

It took him an hour to drive 10 blocks on Calle Ocho, and he never got out of his car. ''I'm too old for that already,'' he said.

Still, one thing caught his attention: Watching the younger generation of Cuban extraction -- many of whom have never been to the island -- sing along to salsa songs written about Cubans living a life in exile, particularly Chirino's Nuestro Dia Ya Viene Llegando, "Our day is coming.''

''This is the fruit of our labor,'' Añorga said in Spanish. "We haven't worked for nothing, talking to them every day, every hour, about Cuba.''

T2000 Productions set up shop on Bird Road and Southwest 87th Avenue, near La Carreta restaurant, during the spontaneous outpouring. The crowd grew silent before bursting into Chirino's song.

This week, those lyrics had special meaning.

Julio Fernandez, 29, of Coral Gables, said he felt a sense of responsibility to go to Versailles restaurant in Little Havana -- the heart of everything Cuban. Not only were the hundreds of honking horns marking the possible end of Fidel Castro's regime. Fernandez noted that those on the street were celebrating for those who couldn't -- for those who died unable to return to a free Cuba.

''I went because I had to. I went because I'm free and because I could,'' Fernandez said. "My grandfather would have given anything to have seen this -- the light at the end of the tunnel.''

Gamblers' odds don't favor Fidel

Bettors are placing their wagers on the fate of Fidel Castro -- and right now the odds are against him.

By Joseph Tartakoff. Posted on Thu, Aug. 03, 2006

When he took power almost five decades ago, Fidel Castro shut down Cuba's bustling gambling business. On Wednesday, gambling companies had their revenge.

Across the Internet, people are trying to cash in on the fate of the ailing Cuban leader, who handed control to his brother this week. They're placing bets on which day he'll die -- or which month -- and whether he'll make another appearance.

So far, the odds are coming in squarely against Castro lasting too much longer, and many of the people making the bets are from Miami.

''Many of us were amazed at Castro's staying power, but he's no Stonehenge,'' said BetCRIS.com CEO Mickey Richardson. "Every reign has an endpoint and it appears that Castro's is fast approaching.''

Starting at 2 p.m. Wednesday, BetCRIS was accepting wagers on whether or not Castro would make a live appearance before Aug. 13, his birthday. Written messages and voice broadcasts do not count, the site made clear.

Within five hours, 98 wagers had come in, more than 60 percent from Florida. The majority put their money on Castro not appearing in public again.

Another website, BetUS.com, boasts an entire section on Castro. Last fall the site started allowing members to gamble on which day of the week Castro would die. Over the past week it's seen more than 100 bets, with no particular day standing out.

On Wednesday, the site added the option of betting on the month Castro would die and on whether he would hold power Jan. 1 next year.

BetUS.com spokesman Matthew Ross said traffic to the Castro page has surged, with a few thousand extra page views. The source of most of the interest? Miami.

The odds suggest Castro will die sooner rather than later. Those who bet $100 that Castro will die this month will reap $350 if he does. Those who bet $100 that he will die in December will take in $600 if they're right.

MORAL STANCE

BetUS.com has no qualms with making money off Castro's illness.

''Fidel Castro is within bounds,'' Ross said. ''It was just sort of the same vein as Osama Bin Laden.'' And yes, they have allowed customers to bet on Bin Laden.

Also starting Wednesday, Bodog.com invited bets on whether Castro would reassume control by Oct. 31. The bookie -- who sets the odds depending on risk -- wasn't too optimistic.

But the company's CEO, Calvin Ayre, wrote in an e-mail that ''slightly more'' of the several hundred bets recorded so far were in favor of a Castro comeback.

When people bet with their own funds, how they're betting is relevant, according to John Delaney, the CEO of Trade Exchange Network in Ireland. The company runs both Intrade.com and Tradesports.com and plans to let members bet on permanent regime change in Cuba.

''If somebody stops you in the street . . . and asks for your opinion . . . there is a fair chance you might say what you would like to happen,'' he said. "The difference in real money trading is that what will happen comes to the forefront of your mind because that generates you a profit.''

MINI STOCK MARKETS

Unlike the other online gambling companies, Delaney's sites allow clients to set the odds themselves by buying and selling contracts. The sites essentially work like mini stock markets.

The Pentagon proposed a similar concept in 2003, when it laid out the benefits of a program for investors to bet on the probability of terrorist acts. The proposal didn't last long in a storm of protest by Congress.

The sites gambling on Castro's future are based mostly in Costa Rica. Within the United States there are restrictions on what types of bets can be made and where.

''Nevada is the only state in the United States that sports betting or wagering is allowed,'' said Frank Streshley at the Nevada Gaming Control Board. "Anything outside is prohibited.''

It won't happen at Seminole Hard Rock Hotel and Casino Hollywood.

''We would never do anything like that here,'' said Gina Araya, a spokeswoman. "It's owned by the Seminole tribe and they wouldn't want to get involved in something so political.''

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