CUBA NEWS
The Miami Herald

Detainee on hunger strike

A Cuban exile suspected, but never charged, by the United States of being a spy fights a deportation order and continues a hunger strike at Krome detention center, demanding his freedom.

By Alfonso Chardy, achardy@herald.com. Posted on Mon, Apr. 11, 2005.

Juan Emilio Aboy, a Cuban exile detained for almost three years on suspicion of being a Cuban spy operating in South Florida, has been on a hunger strike for the past month -- demanding release from the Krome detention center in West Miami-Dade County.

In a telephone interview last week, Aboy -- who weighed 225 pounds -- said he has lost 35 pounds and become ''weak.'' He said he only drinks water and refuses food.

Aboy said he will not eat again until he is released -- so he can pursue appeals in freedom.

Nina Pruneda, an Immigration and Customs Enforcement spokeswoman in Miami, confirmed that Aboy is on a hunger strike but did not provide details on his condition.

But Aboy said he heard officials were trying to obtain a federal court order to insert a feeding device into his body.

''This is to the end,'' said Aboy, 44, who is fighting a deportation order that cannot be executed because Cuba generally refuses to take back exiles.

Aboy, who said he defected in 1994 during the rafter exodus, has been linked by federal investigators to the so-called Wasp Network of more than a dozen Cuban government operatives rolled up in the late 1990s.

Investigators claimed Aboy served as network courier and was at one time ordered to infiltrate the Miami-Dade-based U.S. Southern Command.

LACK OF EVIDENCE

Aboy has denied the allegations, and federal investigators have not produced specific evidence to back up their claims other than to indicate the information came from Wasp Network members who became government informants.

Aboy was arrested in May 2002. Since evidence that he was a spy was not strong enough for a criminal case, he was never charged. Instead, federal officials took the case to immigration court and put Aboy in deportation proceedings.

The case raises questions about how long an undeportable foreign national can be detained by immigration officials.

Regulations say foreigners with final deportation orders can be detained pending removal arrangements, but that if ''there is no significant likelihood of removal in the reasonably foreseeable future'' -- barring ''special circumstances'' -- he must be released under supervision. Special circumstances refer to national security concerns, terrorism or extreme danger to the community.

Regulations stem from a 2001 U.S. Supreme Court decision that prohibited detention of undeportable foreign nationals beyond six months. Permanent detention, the high court said, raises "serious constitutional questions.''

A Department of Homeland Security official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the agency's position on Aboy's continued detention ''will be made in the courtroom in the coming days.'' The official would not elaborate.

Aboy began his hunger strike after the U.S. 11th Circuit Court of Appeals in Atlanta rejected his appeal of the deportation order in February.

FORCE-FEEDING OPTION

Pruneda did not comment on Aboy's assertion about possible force-feeding, but said: "Should his health reach a critical state, the U.S. Public Health Service has protocols in place to take the necessary steps in the interests of his health.''

''The Department of Homeland Security is coordinating closely with the U.S. Public Health Service, which is regularly monitoring Mr. Aboy's health,'' Pruneda said. "I remind you that it is Mr. Aboy's choice not to eat.''

Allegations in immigration court were that Aboy failed to register with the U.S. attorney general as someone trained in espionage, engaged in ''activity relating to espionage, sabotage, or prohibited exports,'' and that he committed fraud in his residence application when he failed to reveal former links to the Cuban Communist Party and an intent to spy.

Aboy has denied the allegations, both in the telephone interview last week and in a lengthy face-to-face interview at Krome about a month after his arrest.

Aboy said his attorney presented evidence in immigration court that he never concealed his security training with the Cuban armed forces before arriving in the United States.

Aboy, a Soviet-trained military diver, said he disclosed his military background to U.S. officials when he was interviewed in Guantánamo, where he was taken after U.S. authorities in 1994 began moving rafters stopped at sea to the U.S. naval base in Cuba.

Aboy's wife, Alina, faxed a copy of the biographical questionnaire she said her husband filled out at Guantánamo to The Herald.

In the line where he is asked to describe his occupation, he wrote ''military officer.'' Below, where he is asked to describe his specialty, he wrote ''marinero diver,'' followed by ''Soviet Union'' after the line asking if he had done foreign duty.

Immigration officials have not disputed that Aboy disclosed the information at Guantánamo. But they maintain that he violated the law by failing to formally register with the attorney general as a foreign national trained in espionage. Aboy has said no one told him he had to register.

Mariel exiles differ on U.S. policy

A poll conducted for The Herald found that Mariel refugees have views that differ from those of Cubans who arrived in South Florida before and after 1980.

By Oscar Corral, ocorral@herald.com. Posted on Mon, Apr. 11, 2005.

Cubans who fled during the Mariel boatlift tend to have more middle-of-the-road views than Cubans who arrived before or after the 1980 exodus on issues such as invading Cuba or traveling to the island, according to a new poll.

About half of Mariel exiles polled feel that U.S. citizens should be allowed to travel to Cuba compared to about 34 percent of exiles who came before 1980 and about 60 percent of those who came after 1980.

The poll -- conducted by Coral Gables-based Bendixen & Associates for The Herald's coverage of the boatlift's 25th anniversary -- also found that about half of all Mariel refugees questioned would support a military invasion to depose Cuban President Fidel Castro compared to 60 percent of exiles who came before 1980 and just 38 percent of those who came after 1980.

''Mariel exiles tend to have an intermediate point of view on most issues that impact Cuba policy,'' Pollster Sergio Bendixen said. "They are likely to be more conservative than those who arrived after 1980 but more progressive than those that came in the 1960s and 1970s.''

However, there are many points of agreement among exiles. While most support the economic embargo of Cuba, most also want to invest in their homeland post-Castro. Few, however, want to move back and many feel they may never see the day when Cuba is free.

Forty-two percent of all exiles feel they ''will probably die before democracy and freedom are restored in Cuba,'' according to the poll.

The polling firm interviewed 200 Mariel refugees as part of a larger poll of 600 Cuban Americans from Miami-Dade and Broward counties between March 21-31. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points for all interviewees; the margin is seven percentage points for the Mariel group and the two other subgroups of pre- and post-Mariel exiles.

Regardless of when they came, very few plan to move back to Cuba when Castro is no longer in power. Only 17 percent said they would return.

However, a much larger percentage of all exiles said they would invest in Cuba after Castro is gone -- a suggestion of Cuban American capital that is poised to flow to the island. Fifty-five percent of exiles said they plan to invest in business or properties in Cuba once Castro goes.

Many are already sending over money. Sixty percent of all Cuban exiles said they send money to family in Cuba, and 51 percent feel that they should be able to send as much money as they like to their relatives.

But in a contradictory revelation, the poll also shows that 68 percent of exiles support the $100 monthly limit on remittances imposed last year by the Bush administration. Even Mariel exiles and those who came after them -- most of whom still have family in Cuba -- heavily support the restrictions.

Economically, Mariel refugees have become part of what Bendixen calls the Cuban ''economic miracle.'' They have practically caught up to older exiles in their levels of success and are in almost every respect a model immigrant class, much like the Cuban exiles who arrived in South Florida in the 1960s.

Even Cuban refugees who arrived in Miami after Mariel, including the balseros who came in the 1990s, have shown a remarkable ability to advance themselves in South Florida in a relatively short time, the poll shows.

'Even though the Mariel exiles were perceived to be a very 'different' group of exiles when they first arrived in South Florida in 1980, now their lifestyle choices and level of acculturation are similar to those of other Cuban exiles,'' said Bendixen.

BLENDING IN

Regardless of when Cuban exiles arrived in Miami, they have blended almost seamlessly into the fabric of Miami society. Of course, those who have been here longer have slightly higher levels of education, income and voter registration. But the more recent arrivals seem to be well on their way to catching up -- even if the perceptions of them by older exiles haven't.

The poll found that the Mariel exiles' average annual income their first year here was $6,607. Today, it's $31,210. For all Cuban exiles in South Florida, the figure is $37,440.

To put it in perspective, the average annual income in Miami-Dade is $31,045 for men with full-time jobs and $24,171 for women. Exiles who came before 1980 average $44,000 a year; those who arrived after 1980 average about $31,360.

NEGATIVE IMAGES

Despite the Mariel's success, about 40 percent of exiles who came to South Florida before 1980 feel that Mariel refugees have hurt the image of Cuban immigrants.

Among all exiles who arrived either before or after the 1980 boatlift, 73 percent have a positive image of Mariel refugees.

It's a dose of schizophrenia within South Florida's exile community.

''A small but significant percentage of exiles still harbor opinions about Mariel exiles that seem to originate from the original stereotype,'' Bendixen said.

That's the story of Ricardo Perez, 53, of Hialeah. Perez came to Miami during Mariel in 1980 and fell in love with a woman whose father came from Cuba in 1967.

''He didn't want me to marry his daughter because I had gotten here in Mariel,'' Perez said. "He said I was no good. But slowly they started to realize that I wasn't so bad. A few bad apples that had criminal problems caused the problems for us in Mariel.''

Castro took advantage of the boatlift to send convicts and in some cases the mentally ill to the United States. They constituted a tiny minority of the 125,000 people who fled the island.

Ada Torres, 55, came to Miami with her family in 1970. She said that when Mariel happened, she looked down upon the new arrivals. But things have changed.

''At the beginning, their image hurt the Cubans that were here,'' Torres said. "They were killers, and people with problems who didn't work and stole from others. But afterward, they've done well, and my best friends today came here in Mariel.''

While Mariel exiles are less likely to go to church every week than Cuban immigrants who came before and after them, they are still likely to attend church at least a few times a year.

But in other cultural aspects, Mariel refugees and other Cuban exile groups mirror one another, the poll found. Most root for the U.S. team, not the Cubans, during the Olympic Games. Most cling to Cuban culinary and festival traditions at home.

The biggest legacy of the exile community, Bendixen said, has been its economic success.

''As Cubans, we all came here to work hard, whether we came in Mariel, or another time,'' Perez said. "That's why we've done well. We haven't stopped working from the moment we got here.''

Mariel exiles firmly middle class

While tightly embracing their native language and cultural traditions, Mariel refugees have become -- and gained acceptance as -- productive members of the middle class, earning above-average incomes for South Florida, a Herald poll found.

By Oscar Corral, ocorral@herald.com. Posted on Sun, Apr. 10, 2005.

Twenty five years ago, as thousands of poor Mariel refugees poured into Key West, few would have believed it would take just a generation for them to blend all but seamlessly into the American middle class.

But that's exactly what has happened, according to a poll of Mariel refugees and other Cuban exiles conducted for The Herald as part of its coverage of the 25th anniversary of the Mariel boatlift.

Since more than 125,000 Cubans poured into South Florida during the 1980 boatlift, their collective identity has eluded analyses. This poll is an attempt to understand one of the most misunderstood and stereotyped groups of immigrants in American history.

In almost every regard, Mariel refugees have become part of the Cuban exile ''economic miracle.'' Their incomes are higher than most South Florida residents. They feel accepted by their Cuban peers. And while they are proud of being Cuban, most of them say they will never move back to Cuba, even after Fidel Castro dies.

''They have pretty much joined the American middle class,'' pollster Sergio Bendixen said.

The Coral Gables-based Bendixen & Associates interviewed 200 Mariel refugees as part of a larger poll of 600 Cuban Americans from Miami-Dade and Broward counties between March 21 and 31. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Like almost all Cubans who came from the island before and after them, Mariel refugees came with almost nothing. Eighty-eight percent had less than $100 in their pockets, and they averaged about $7,000 in income their first year here.

Today, Mariel refugees have an average annual income of $32,210 per person. The average annual income for all Cuban exiles is $37,440, while the average individual income in Miami-Dade is $21,947. Men with full-time jobs in Miami average annual incomes of $31,045 and women $24,171.

Lázaro Cuervo, 57, remembers coming to Miami during Mariel poor and desperate. Within a month, he was working two jobs.

''I started working in a garage, in construction, in whatever opportunities I had,'' said Cuervo, a poll participant who has three children. "I've always had two jobs. They say there are not jobs here, but that's only true for people who don't want to work.''

''They have done extremely well economically,'' Bendixen said. "I can't imagine myself arriving in a foreign country with less than $100 in my pocket and without speaking the language. It's pretty remarkable the courage and success in what they've done since.''

Politically, 76 percent of Mariel refugees identified themselves as registered Republicans. A majority said they are much more interested in education than in politics.

Perhaps most shocking about the success of Mariel refugees is that they have attained their middle-class status despite the fact that most of them still barely speak English.

Only 30 percent of Mariel exiles said they speak English well or very well. Seventy percent said they either don't speak English or don't speak it well. Eighty-six percent say they get their news from Spanish-language media. Their top choice on Spanish-language radio: Radio Mambi, WAQI-AM (710). And 6 percent of poll respondents elected to be interviewed in English.

Bendixen's study found that, like other Cuban exiles, Mariel refugees take pride in their Cuban heritage. They keep alive such cultural traditions as playing dominoes, attending quinceañera parties and organizing Ferias de Los Municipios, local fairs that reunite people from different towns in Cuba.

Like other Cuban immigrants, the toughest time for Mariel refugees was their first year here: Many confronted discrimination, even from older, more established Cuban exiles. They faced stereotypes of being criminals -- stereotypes fed in part by Castro's inclusion of a minority of criminals into the boats departing Mariel -- while others couldn't find work, according to the poll.

Today, the stereotypes and discrimination are almost nonexistent. Ninety-two percent of Mariel exiles feel accepted here, and 80 percent of all Cuban exiles feel that the Mariel refugees are productive members of society.

Perhaps surprisingly, almost one out of four Mariel refugees polled feel that the Al Pacino movie Scarface, about a Mariel refugee who becomes a Miami drug kingpin, is symbolic of what the Cubans who arrived during Mariel are all about.

Daisy Roque, 51, of Hialeah, believes she has lived the typical Mariel experience. She worked a slew of low-wage jobs from the moment she arrived, including as a lunch server at a school cafeteria and a bullet-maker in a factory. She has raised three children, including two daughters who were given lavish quinceañeras at a banquet hall.

If and when Castro dies, she doesn't plan to go back to Cuba. She believes the life she has made for herself in Miami is priceless.

''They didn't give us as many benefits or advantages when we first got here,'' she said. "We had to work from the first minute we got here. And we did OK, and I'm grateful for this country.''

For more Mariel poll results and analysis, see Monday's Herald.

See the survey results (.pdf file)

Full coverage | 25 years after Mariel

People, not politics, at the core in Mariel piece

A young Miami filmmaker who tackled the chaos and ultimate triumph of Mariel refugees in his first documentary says he learned a few things by avoiding politics and focusing on people.

By Oscar Corral, ocorral@herald.com. Posted on Sun, Apr. 10, 2005.

To make his first-ever documentary -- on the Mariel boatlift -- a young Lisandro Perez Rey knocked on doors two years ago and tracked people from Havana to Miami to a prison in rural Florida. His budget was nil. But his curiousity was boundless.

Colleagues praised it.

''I think he went into it with a clear head and no particular prejudice, and what came out was a really good film,'' said fellow Miami filmmaker Joe Cardona, who was so impressed with Perez's work that he hired Perez to edit one of his own documentaries.

''It's insightful, and it paints a fairly accurate picture of what it was, looking back. It's probably the best post-Mariel documentary I've ever seen,'' Cardona said.

Now theaters around the United States are releasing Perez's film, Mas Alla del Mar (Beyond the Sea), to mark the boatlift's 25th anniversary. In Miami, WPBT-PBS 2 will broadcast it at 9:30 p.m. April 15. Alejandro Rios, director of the Cuban Cinema Series for Miami Dade College, plans to screen it at Little Havana's Tower Theater on May 27.

For Perez, now 30, doing the film was educational and frustrating.

''I am too young to really remember Mariel,'' said Perez. "But as I started researching it and talking to people, it was really a critical event in the history of Cuba and U.S. migration. It was a turning point for Miami. After Mariel, you start to see a lot more of the anti-immigrant sentiments. But you also started to see the rise of Miami's modern cosmopolitan flavor.''

TELLING THE STORY

For Perez, a second-generation Cuban American from Miami, figuring out how to document the tumultuous event -- its multitude of dramas and repercussions -- was not easy.

In the end, he chose to profile the journeys and follies of the assimilation of a few of the most colorful, eccentric, talkative and downright zany characters he could find.

From a transsexual actress who purrs on command to an avid santera who serves cups of rum at the feet of her statues, Perez gave them their fair say.

He only skims the surface of the political divide between Cuba and the United States, interviewing a Mariel refugee serving time in a Florida prison for a double homicide and his mother back in Havana. The interviews highlight the heartbreak of separation that still pervades the boatlift.

THE CUBAN ANGLE

Rios said that what makes Perez's documentary on Mariel stand out from others is that he was able to travel to Cuba and interview people on the island. Mas Alla del Mar is one of the few U.S. documentaries about Mariel that explores the Cuban side of the story.

''There are some frustrating testimonies of people in Cuba who lost families,'' Rios said. "All these dramas have ugly facets, and he was able to capture them. It's very sincere. He leaves it open to interpretation.''

Mas Alla del Mar was named ''best Florida film'' at the 2003 Ft. Lauderdale Film Festival and ''best documentary feature'' at the 2003 Made in Miami Film Festival. It is also showing in New York, Boston and Philadelphia.

Perez graduated from Florida International University with a degree in anthropology and is the son of well known FIU professor Lisandro Perez. He paid homage to his father in Mas Alla del Mar by interviewing him extensively in the film as an expert on Cuban migration.

His father, who is on sabbatical from FIU to research a book on the Cuban exile experience, said that what drove his son to do a film on the boatlift was the richness of the human stories that came out of it.

''So often, a lot of these documentaries done about Cuba are meant to put forth a political position,'' the elder Perez said. "But he doesn't have the political baggage that my older generation has in respect to Cuba, where everything is evaluated through a political prism.''

THE NEXT PROJECT

Perez's second documentary, La Fabri-k, follows a group of prorevolution rappers around modern Cuba and has a bit more of a political edge. The film, released in December at the Havana Film Festival, follows the rappers from Havana's poor neighborhoods of Regla and Alamar to the Apollo Theater in New York. He said he had lots of disagreements with the rappers on political issues, but they respected each other.

Perez laments that he probably wouldn't have been able to make either film under the Bush administration's restrictions on travel to Cuba.

''There is a great divide between the Cubans in Miami and the Cubans in Cuba,'' Perez said. "Projects like these are on the front lines of that.''

MEMORIES OF POPE
Cuba trip touched Miami exiles

By Fabiola Santiago. fsantiago@herald.com. Posted on Sat, Apr. 09, 2005.

After 38 years of exile, David Cabarrocas broke an oath many Cubans took when they left Cuba -- never to return to a homeland ruled by Fidel Castro.

But faith in the impact Pope John Paul II's historic visit would have on the island moved the Coconut Grove architect to return in 1998. Inspired by the pope's message and guided by his words -- "No tengan miedo'' (Don't be afraid) -- Cabarrocas has since remained committed to helping Cuba's Catholic Church, using his skills and resources to help rebuild decaying churches.

''As a Cuban, I will be forever grateful to the pope for visiting Cuba against all odds, for returning to Cubans the faith they had lost,'' Cabarrocas said. "Old, tired and sick as he was, he undertook this difficult trip.''

Few international figures have had the impact that Pope John Paul II has had on the Cuban-American community.

''I was extremely touched by his presence in Cuba. If it wouldn't have been for his visit, I would have not decided to go back,'' said human rights activist Mariví Prado, who visited after 40 years of exile. "With his presence, it was a spiritual journey with no other meaning.

''I followed him [from Havana] to other provinces and the message that stayed with my people is one of hope, even though we see a lot of darkness surrounding us on the Cuban issue now,'' she added. "He left his message of looking to the future and being brave. That message will become even more forceful as we lose this man because the moral support of such a major world figure rings true with people.''

Despite the regime's resistance to change, the renewed crackdowns and the jailing of dissidents, the value of the pope's visit to Cuba endures, Cabarrocas agrees.

'His message 'No tengan miedo' was heard,'' he said. 'Despite the government's crackdown, Cuba is living times of change, and the pope's visit had a lot to it. People are saying, 'We are not afraid.' People have lost their fear and the pope gave them that. He told them to be the protagonists of their own destiny.''

One of the factors that made the pope a credible figure with Cuban Americans who have suffered the hardships of exile was his touching forgiveness of the man who shot him, Cabarrocas said.

''He served as an example to all,'' Cabarrocas said. ''It was a beautiful gesture,'' and one that some Cubans are emulating.

Cabarrocas embraced an old friend who had been a sympathizer with Castro's regime when the man visited Miami. He told Cabarrocas that the pope's visit had made him see "the lies with which we have lived.''

Cabarrocas introduced his friend to other exiles and shared the message of reconciliation.

''This was a result of the love the pope planted in all of us,'' Cabarrocas said. "Thanks to him we can embrace each other and try to build a new Cuba.''

That's exactly what Elena Freyre has been doing since she broke with her family's never-travel-to-Castro's-Cuba stance and joined a pilgrimage led by the late New York Cardinal John O'Connor during the pope's visit.

''He changed my life and the way I view things. The person you talked to before she went to Cuba and the person who returned are two different people,'' Freyre says.

Since that first trip to Cuba, the Kendall housewife and mother has become a public activist on behalf of increasing contacts between Cubans in exile and on the island as a way to foster democratic change on the island.

''I think he's irreplaceable,'' Freyre said of the pope. "But maybe God got tired of lending him to us and wanted him back.''

Other Cuban Americans have more mixed feelings when it comes to the pope, Cuba and exiles.

Lawyer Rafael Peñalver has long been an admirer of Pope John Paul II, so much so he stood in line for three hours to see him in Washington, D.C., during Jimmy Carter's presidency, and even went to Rome to greet the millennium by receiving the pope's blessing at St. Peter's Square.

''I'm a Cuban exile coming from a homeland torn by family separation by a Communist regime and I will always remember him for being the major player in eradicating communism from Eastern Europe,'' Peñalver said. "He has our full respect and admiration.''

But Peñalver also has some disappointing memories.

He feels the pope, whom he saw again on his visit to Miami, did not embrace and acknowledge the Cuban exile and "his Cuban church in exile.''

''When he spoke at FIU, he was surrounded by a sea of Cuban flags and he never acknowledged the presence of exiles,'' Peñalver said. He also failed to visit La Ermita, the beloved shrine to Our Lady of Charity, Cuba's patron saint, although he was next door at Vizcaya. Instead, the pope had the virgin's statue brought to him for private prayer at the archbishop's house.

''It was all done for the purpose of not alienating further the Castro regime for fears he would take even harsher measures against the church in Cuba,'' Peñalver said. "But it's something in the exile community that hurts.''

The most hurtful image of the pope, Peñalver said, came during the pope's trip to Cuba.

''I consider him to be one of the most loving figures of the 20th century, a man who stood for principle and had a great part in the collapse of communism. He challenged communism on ideological grounds, not on material grounds and he prevailed,'' Peñalver said. "But in Cuba's case, one of the most painful images that stands out in my mind is of the pope smiling and embracing the bloody hands of Fidel Castro, a man who represents everything opposite of the pope. I don't think that gesture was prudent nor necessary. On the other hand, I admire the pope tremendously for going to Cuba and giving people a message of hope.''

Being friendly to Castro ''was the price he had to pay to bring evangelization to the Cuban people,'' Peñalver said. "The seed he planted will germinate and have great impact in the future of Cuba. He delivered a message of principle: The state exists to serve human beings, not so that human begins serve the state. The phrase 'No tengan miedo' will resonate beyond the life of Fidel Castro. He empowered the Cuban people. He said you are children of God, not of an ideology.''

After Castro, don't expect any sudden changes in economic policy

Posted on Sat, Apr. 09, 2005

Question: What economic path will Cuba take after Fidel Castro?

Answer from William Rogers, a senior partner at Arnold & Porter and former U.S. assistant secretary of state for inter-American affairs: Cuba's macropolicy, both short term and long term after Castro, will be decided in Havana, not in the United States. But whatever course the Cubans choose, it is unlikely that they will scrap his eccentric brand of socialism wholesale and overnight, wildly inefficient though it has been. One should not assume that Cuba will suddenly decide to jettison its own in favor of the experience of some other nation. Certainly, the Cuban people will be better off when Cuba opens up its economy and rejoins the international financial system. But it is impossible at this juncture to predict how it will do so, or whether quickly or in deliberate stages. It is doubly difficult to predict how the administration of the day in Washington will react, or to say when and how it will dismantle its own misguided economic policies toward the island. One might hope that post-Castro Cuba will shift, prudently but deliberately, to a growth-oriented, outward-looking system, but the process is likely to be less than tidy. And we must accept that it cannot be managed by outsiders.

Answer from Stephen Johnson, Latin America policy analyst at the Heritage Foundation: There are a lot of 'ifs' about a post-Fidel Cuba because Cuba runs on the commanding strength of Fidel Castro's personality. One question is whether brother Raúl Castro would be Fidel's successor. Another is if he would attempt to soften the regime so the United States would lift sanctions and do business. Raúl reportedly admires China's market reforms, although his brother has dismissed them. Another 'if' might be whether aid from Venezuela and other donors could eventually boost Cuba's national income toward a break-even point, eliminating the need for market reforms. Fate or politics could get in the way. Raúl might die first, making succession less certain. Cuban citizens might rebel against new leaders, which would bring the economy to a halt, provoking chaos. In the best of scenarios, in which a national dialogue emerges and helps dissidents and military leaders to negotiate competitive elections, Cuba would require massive injections of aid.

Answer from Beatrice Rangel, president of AMLA Consulting: Cuba post-Castro will certainly be capitalist, as Castro's power structures are self-centered and thus will most certainly fail to succeed him. On the other hand, Cubans are educated and reasonably well fed; thus the country represents a far more attractive market than many Latin American nations. With a well-educated and disciplined work force and the creativity of the Cuban soul, we shall witness the Cuban miracle once Castro exits the political scene. I do not see how the U.S. would block the entry of Cuba into the World Bank and the IMF.

Portions of Inter-American Dialogue's Latin America Advisor run each Wednesday and Saturday.

Groups warned to obey travel limits

The U.S. government warned religious organizations not to abuse their travel privileges to Cuba -- a move meant to enforce tightened restrictions on the island.

By Oscar Corral, pcorral@herald.com. Posted on Fri, Apr. 08, 2005.

The U.S. government is cracking down on certain religious organizations that promote licensed travel to Cuba, restricting the number of visitors they can send to ensure that limits on U.S. citizen travel to -- and spending in -- Cuba are enforced.

The Office of Foreign Assets Control sent letters to dozens of organizations that have U.S.-issued religious licenses for travel to Cuba, warning them not to abuse their privileges and announcing investigations into alleged wrongdoing, according to a copy of the letter obtained by The Herald.

The regulators also imposed a limit on the number of people who can travel to Cuba under the auspices of these religious groups: 25 every three months. There were no limits previously.

Regulators acted after reports that some groups that practice Santeria and other religious organizations were allowing people who didn't officially belong to those groups or were not practitioners to visit Cuba under their U.S.-issued religious licenses.

The Herald detailed cases in which some Santeria organizations in Miami with religious licenses were taking thousands of people to Cuba as a way to get around Bush administration travel restrictions.

The numbers of such visitors have boomed since July, when the Bush administration reduced the number of times Cubans can visit their families on the island from once a year to once every three years.

Its purpose was to reduce cash remittances to the island and increase financial pressures on Fidel Castro's government.

PROBE UNDER WAY

''The United States Government has become aware that some organizations may be abusing their licenses by allowing individuals not affiliated with the organizations to travel under the authority of their licenses,'' said the letter signed by OFAC Director Robert Werner.

"OFAC is currently investigating reports of abuse of religious licenses and will take appropriate action against groups and individuals that have engaged in transactions outside the scope of a license.''

The 25-person-per-quarter limit doesn't apply to what the government calls ''established churches,'' such as the Roman Catholic Church. These organizations get licenses that don't limit the number of travelers to Cuba.

In his letter, Werner warned:

o Groups that hold religious licenses are prohibited from advertising Cuba trips on television, radio or the Internet;

o People or groups traveling under the licenses must be ''involved in religious activities'' with the organizations, apart from their travel to Cuba.

''Individuals who associate with your organization primarily for the purpose of traveling to Cuba are not authorized to travel under your license,'' Werner said.

'SCANDALOUS' CASE

U.S. Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart, R-Miami, calling the abuse of religious travel ''scandalous,'' pressured regulators to clamp down after The Herald's report in February.

''The administration is not going to permit the flouting of the law,'' Diaz-Balart said. "I think this is going to end the abuse in so-called religious travel.''

The Office of Foreign Assets Control, part of the Treasury Department, has given about 200 churches and organizations religious licenses to travel to Cuba.

By some estimates, religious travel makes up from 85 to 95 percent of all nonaffiliated travel to Cuba, said Pedro Gonzalez-Munne, owner of Cuba Promotions, an agency that promotes travel to Cuba. Munne defined affiliated travel as people who go with business, sports or educational visas.

IMPACT ON FAMILIES

Munne said that before July, about 250,000 people traveled to Cuba legally from the United States every year. That number has dropped by a third since July.

Munne decried regulators' action as harmful to families.

''This is the last bridge left for people to go see their families,'' he said of religious licenses. "This will increase traffic through third countries.''

Munne also said that the July restriction left people little choice but to find loopholes -- such as using religious licenses -- to see family in Cuba.

Jose Montoya, head of the Sacerdocio Lucumi Shango Eyeife in Miami, said that between 1996 and July 2004, he took about 60 people to Cuba under his religious travel license. Since July, he has taken about 2,500, he said.

''The possibility exists that they are violating the religious rights of people, and going against the Constitution of the United States,'' Montoya said in an interview Thursday.

Montoya said he will be more judicious in choosing travelers.

''I don't think I'm going to give it [the license] to everyone,'' he said. "I was not giving it to everyone before, but I'm going to be more strict now.''

GROUP SUSPENDED

Both Montoya and Gonzalez-Munne say that OFAC has suspended the license of another, Doral-based Santero group, Santa Yemaya Ministries, pending an investigation by OFAC.

OFAC declined to comment, and The Herald could not immediately confirm their account.

Montoya said his own research shows that many of the people traveling to Cuba under religious licenses were going through Santa Yemaya.

Bolton wanted CIA analyst removed over Cuba critique

Disagreement over Cuba's biological warfare capabilities and allegations that inappropriate pressure was applied to intelligence officers could jeopardize confirmation of President Bush's nominee for ambassador to the U.N.

By Jonathan S. Landay and Nancy San Martin, nsanmartin@herald.com. Posted on Fri, Apr. 08, 2005.

WASHINGTON - Congressional investigators are probing a new allegation that President Bush's choice for U.N. ambassador once visited CIA headquarters to demand the removal of a top intelligence analyst who disagreed with him on Cuba's biological warfare capabilities.

Current and former senior U.S. intelligence officials denounced the alleged visit by Under Secretary of State John Bolton. They said it risked undermining the objectivity of intelligence judgments.

The impartiality of U.S. intelligence judgments remains a highly charged issue because of assertions by some lawmakers that analysts were pressured to produce assessments on Iraq that supported Bush's case for war but turned out to be wrong. Several inquiries have rejected those claims of political pressure.

In preparation for Bolton's confirmation hearing on Monday, Republican and Democratic congressional investigators are looking into charges that he tried to penalize the analyst for disputing comments about Cuba's biological warfare capability in a 2002 speech by Bolton.

Bolton alleged Havana had a limited ''offensive biological warfare research and development effort'' -- an allegation Cuba has consistently denied.

The analyst, who was the Latin America expert on the National Intelligence Council, cannot be identified because he is now in an undercover position. The council produces long-range strategic forecasts and assessments of the most critical national security issues for the president and top policymakers.

The inquiry into Bolton's actions was confirmed by U.S. officials who requested anonymity because of the matter's sensitivity.

A telephone call to Bolton's office for comment went unanswered.

One congressional official sympathetic to Bolton said, "As we've looked at it, we haven't found anything that violates the norms of behavior when it comes to these kinds of things.''

A former senior diplomat in an interview with The Herald said that he tried to get the analyst removed from his position and discussed the matter with Bolton but did not know if Bolton also tried to take action against the analyst.

Otto Reich, former assistant secretary of state for Western hemisphere affairs, said he went to CIA headquarters in 2002 to hand deliver a letter calling for the replacement of the senior analyst.

''The letter was a last resort,'' he said.

''The [analyst's] information was bad, not just on Cuba, but on Latin America, too,'' said Reich. "He was wrong on Haiti, Colombia and Venezuela.''

The congressional investigators were told that Reich and Bolton demanded that the national intelligence officer be removed from his position during separate visits they made to CIA headquarters in 2002, the U.S. officials said.

But, they said, the then-acting chairman of the NIC, Stuart Cohen, and top CIA officials rebuffed Bolton and Reich, and the analyst was promoted.

PRINTER FRIENDLY