CUBA NEWS
The Miami Herald

Ivan's worst may miss Cuba; S. Florida appears spared

Early accounts painted a scene of destruction in the Cayman Islands, blasted by a hurricane that seemed headed to Cuba but often defied predictions.

By Martin Merzer and Nancy San Martin, mmerzer@herald.com. Posted on Mon, Sep. 13, 2004.

Hurricane Ivan brutalized the Cayman Islands on Sunday, reintensified Sunday night to a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds, and threatened to hit western Cuba's coastline today with a 25-foot storm surge.

One of the most powerful storms ever recorded, it crushed homes in the Caymans, covered Havana with black clouds and provoked sheer panic.

''Oh, my God! Oh, my God! The roof is coming off!'' a woman at the Adams Guest House in George Town, on the main island of Grand Cayman, told The Herald by telephone.

Then the line went dead.

Sustained winds of 120 mph blasted the island, numerous buildings lost their roofs, and power was out throughout Grand Cayman.

More than five feet of water flowed through many homes. According to ham radio operators, people were standing on their roofs to avoid floodwaters.

Most communications networks were severed and no casualty reports from the Caymans were available. Around the Caribbean, 65 deaths have been blamed on the hurricane so far.

Forecasters said Ivan did not pose a significant threat to South Florida, but it kept defying predictions. As a result, watches and warnings were posted from Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula through all of Cuba and all the way to the Seven Mile Bridge in the Lower Keys.

The Keys remained under an evacuation order, though officials said it probably would be lifted this morning.

PANHANDLE AT RISK

Ivan still was expected to strike the Florida Panhandle later this week, possibly as a major Category 4 hurricane with 130-mph winds.

State officials urged residents of the Panhandle and Big Bend areas to prepare for evacuation.

In Cuba, some hope surfaced that the nation would avoid Ivan's worst effects. The 11 p.m. forecast suggested that the storm's eye wall might just clip the main island's western tip, and Havana seemed unlikely to experience hurricane winds.

But intense rain and 60-mph gusts swept western Cuba on Sunday night, extremely nasty weather will prevail across most of the country today, and until Ivan passed completely, many people cowered in fear.

''I would say the atmosphere is one of terror, anguish,'' a man told The Herald by telephone as he and his family prepared to evacuate their house in the center of Havana and flee to an inland suburb.

In the village of Guanajay, west of Havana, about 500 people sought refuge in the José de Luis Caballero High School, a 12-room, one-story building without windows. Some of them have been homeless since Hurricane Charley ripped through the area last month.

''Charley took half my house,'' said a 40-year-old mother of six, who was staying at a friend's house in the village of Artemisa. "I'm sure this will take the other half.''

On the Isle of Youth, closer to the storm's projected path, residents bemoaned a shortage of wood, nails and other protective supplies. Some also sketched a climate of fearful anticipation.

''What's coming is a phenomenon,'' one woman told The Herald by telephone as the wind began to howl. "I'm horrified.''

Said another Isle of Youth resident: "We are all aware of what happened in Grenada and Jamaica and we know the power of the storm.''

The priority? ''To avoid loss of human life,'' he said.

CAYMANS BATTERED

As it did in Jamaica, the hurricane's core -- and its 155-mph winds -- veered away from Grand Cayman at the last minute, but the three populated Cayman Islands absorbed a terrible beating.

Initial reports from the popular scuba-diving destination and banking center spoke of roofs flying off many houses, crashing into nearby buildings, tearing open the door of a public storm shelter.

The storm's towering waves and torrential rain produced another form of disaster -- flooding. Six-foot floods swamped George Town, the capital. Ambulances were under three feet of water.

''I'm at work and the water is up to my knees,'' Devon Chisolm, a firefighter in George Town, said Sunday morning. "We can't help anyone -- there's too much wind and water.''

About 45,000 people live in the Caymans, a low-lying British territory of three populated islands. Some residents and tourists fled ahead of the storm.

Andrew Golding, an investment banker, fled his Cayman home Friday with his pregnant wife and 2 ½-year-old daughter on one of the last flights out.

As the storm turned in their direction, he said, seats on the final flights were instantly snapped up.

''We were lucky,'' said Golding, who is staying at a New Jersey hotel.

Golding spent a fretful Saturday night and Sunday morning, trying but failing to reach friends who stayed.

''They're brave people, the type that would go charging off into the night to help someone,'' Golding said. "But that's not something you want your friends to be doing in a storm like this.''

Ivan remained a storm of historic power and impact, one that already has inflicted death and widespread damage in Grenada and Jamaica.

At one point Saturday night, hurricane hunter crews measured a central barometric pressure of 910 millibars, making Ivan the sixth most intense Atlantic basin hurricane in history. The central pressure of Andrew, which ravaged South Miami-Dade County in 1992, never fell below 922 millibars.

In Cuba, wind damage already was reported in the southeastern province of Santiago de Cuba, where two homes collapsed and at least 10 others were damaged. Thirty-foot waves raked the beaches of two hotels, the Bucanero and the Costa Morena.

Havana Radio told the nation's 11.2 million residents to "put into practice the solidarity that characterizes our nation.''

Forecasters warned Cubans to expect a huge storm surge -- a wall of water up to 25 feet high -- if Ivan's core makes landfall on the westernmost province of Pinar del Río.

If that happens, it could trigger a secondary disaster -- one of economics.

Pinar del Río is Cuba's third-largest province, one with a swampy coastline but also some of the best, most productive tobacco fields in the world. It accounts for 80 percent of Cuba's tobacco production, and tobacco exports bring in about $180 million each year.

The Isle of Youth, also endangered by the storm, accounts for $100 million a year in grapefruit exports.

Much of that region is still recovering from Hurricane Charley, which heavily damaged the tobacco industry and knocked out electricity for more than a week.

More than 10,000 homes on the Isle of Youth are considered to be in poor condition because of age or improper construction, according to a Cuban news agency.

''There are no nails or wood, and so people are alarmed their properties will be blown away, that's the main fear,'' one resident told The Herald by phone. "We don't have enough resources.''

HIGH-RISES EVACUATED

Residents of the upper floors of Havana's high-rise buildings were ordered to evacuate. Later, the streets grew quiet as a light drizzle began to fall from dark clouds.

''This city looks deserted,'' one resident told The Herald by phone. "Shops are closed. Everything is closed, and there's no traffic or even people on the streets. It's like a ghost city.''

He said many residents feared that aged or poorly constructed structures would tumble in old Havana -- even if the storm's eye wall passes far to the west, as expected.

''We don't know what's going to happen,'' he said.

To some extent, hurricane forecasters might have felt the same way.

They kept expecting Ivan to shift toward the north, but it kept tending to move a little more toward the west, apparently because a ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida delayed it from making the turn.

In Florida, the tropical storm watch covered the Lower Keys from the Dry Tortugas to the Seven Mile Bridge. That means winds of 39 mph and higher are possible within 36 hours.

Still, with the storm consistently predicted to miss South Florida, the Miami-Dade Emergency Operations Center was deactivated and life returned to something approaching normalcy.

Said Carlos Castillo, the county's director of emergency management: "The only thing I'm doing stormwise today is taking down my storm shutters.''

Herald staff writers Jennifer Babson, Noah Bierman, Cara Buckley, Alfonso Chardy, Andy Diaz, Mary Ellen Klas, Renato Perez, Bob Radziewicz, Charles Rabin and Jane Wooldridge contributed to this report.

Immigrants fill churches, with homelands in mind

With hymns and rosaries, Miami-Dade County residents prayed for loved ones and victims of Hurricane Ivan across the Caribbean.

By Rebecca Dellagloria and Sofia Santana. rdellagloria@herald.com. Posted on Mon, Sep. 13, 2004.

It was noon and the day's Mass was still eight hours away. But the Coconut Grove sanctuary of La Ermita De La Caridad, the Catholic shrine to Cuba's patron saint, was filled with worshipers Sunday.

Heads bowed, rosaries pressed against chests, their prayers moved far from the tiny room, across the sea, to Cuba -- and loved ones who faced the wrath of deadly Hurricane Ivan.

''We were asking God to have mercy on the people so that the forces of nature would weaken, would disappear,'' said Father Oscar Castaneda, who led a rosary prayer at the shrine of Our Lady of Charity.

''In the U.S. we can run to Home Depot for supplies. People in Cuba, they cannot run anywhere,'' Castaneda said.

People strolled among the pews. Some carried flowers. Others sat silently and prayed.

''Everything is so devastated there, and if this happens it's going to be a disaster and the people are going to suffer,'' said Armando Cruz, who came from Hialeah to pray for his homeland. "That's why the people are showing up here, gathering together and praying together.''

In North Miami, nearly 200 worshipers, many immigrants from the Caribbean, gathered at Episcopal Church of the Holy Family on Sunday to pray for Ivan's victims and those still in the hurricane's path.

Consular officials from Barbados, Grenada and Jamaica attended the emotional service, which the Rev. Horace Ward began by placing a large stuffed animal on the altar.

''This teddy bear represents the gifts from the people of South Florida to the children of Grenada,'' said Ward, who encouraged the congregation to contribute to relief funds.

Ivan has been blamed for at least 60 deaths in its rampage through the Caribbean.

Images of Ivan's destruction in Grenada, Jamaica and elsewhere were projected onto a large wall behind the altar, and the church's walls were draped with flags of Caribbean nations. Many parishioners turned their heads away, looked down or sighed deeply as the painful images lingered.

''I have many, many friends in Jamaica, but I know they are all OK,'' Ali Robinson said. "I am here to pray for the people who don't know and don't have any answers yet.''

Cubans use tunnels to hide from Ivan's worst

By Nancy San Martin, nsanmartin@herald.com. Posted on Sat, Sep. 11, 2004.

Still reeling from Hurricane Charley's havoc last month, Cuba on Friday girded for Hurricane Ivan by evacuating 40,000 people from flood-prone areas and directing some of them to a network of tunnels dug long ago to resist a U.S. attack.

Long lines formed at markets and gas stations, Havana residents hoarded supplies, and workers trimmed tree branches and cleared street drains as the hurricane that Cuban weather forecasters were calling ''Ivan the Terrible'' approached.

Cuba's totalitarian government has long been highly effective at mass evacuations and other means of protecting life and property from storms. But this time the main motivating factor for those choosing to leave was the storm's 140 mph winds, not the government.

''People are panicking,'' a 70-year-old resident of a Soviet-built apartment complex in Havana's Playa neighborhood told The Herald by telephone. "I've never seen anything like it.''

The woman added that other complex residents planned to stay home despite a ''mandatory'' evacuation order, out of fear of losing their belongings to thieves and a reluctance to move to the tunnels dug under Havana during the 1980s and 1990s in preparation for a possible U.S. attack.

''Me, underground? No way. It's very disagreeable,'' she said. "I couldn't take it.''

Ivan, the worst storm to hit the Caribbean in a decade and already responsible for 37 deaths, was expected to make landfall along Cuba's south-central coast Sunday night, almost a month to the day after Charley hit the island, killing five people and causing an estimated $1 billion in damage.

Ivan was projected to sweep to the northwest, exiting the island between Havana and the Varadero resort to the east.

Expected to be hard hit are the southern cities of Trinidad and Cienfuegos. Founded in 1514, Trinidad is famous for its mud-walled homes, tiled roofs and cobbled streets.

But almost any heavy rain that hits Cuba usually collapses significant numbers of buildings, usually old and ill-maintained, and especially in the colonial sections of Havana.

''There is general anxiety,'' said Elizardo Sánchez, a prominent human rights activist who said he nevertheless planned to ride out the storm in his 60-year-old home -- eight blocks from the ocean. "The Cuban people have a culture of dealing with hurricanes and tropical storms throughout their history.''

Friday's weather over Havana, he added, was "sunny and hot, like a normal summer day.''

"The only abnormal thing is that people are scurrying like ants, looking for supplies, food and stuff.''

SUPPLIES DEPLETED

Several Havana residents told The Herald that many stores had already run out of many goods, particularly candles and batteries, and that buses were packed with people who were running to make last-minute purchases.

One woman said the government had ordered neighborhood grocery stores to sell all their produce and issue current and future rations of the subsidized food items, so that none of it spoils.

But lines were reported to be even longer at stores that sell goods for U.S. dollars, where there is typically a greater supply and variety of food items and other goods.

One woman said she picked up $100 Friday morning, wired by her son in Miami.

But she had bought only food and water and nothing else by Friday afternoon. ''I haven't been able to find candles or batteries,'' she said.

''For three days they have been telling us that this is for real, telling us to prepare ourselves for the worst storm Cuba has ever seen,'' another woman added.

She said civil-defense officials were moving all residents of high-rises to shelters. ''Even the iron TV towers are coming down,'' she said, referring to huge towers used by state-run television.

The reservations office for the Spanish-owned Melia hotel chain, which manages 20 hotels in Cuba, said that all its hotels in Havana and Varadero were already being emptied of guests. Only essential employees were being asked to stay, she said.

She added that guests removed from Havana and Varadero were being relocated further east, "where the risks are minor.''

In Miami, one warehouse had already been packed with more than 225 boxes of food, medicine, clothing and children's school supplies, ready to be shipped as soon as Cuba gives the OK, said Eddie Levy, president of Jewish Solidarity. The humanitarian group has sent donations to Cuban Jews since 1993 and stepped up its efforts after Hurricane Charley, Levy said.

But other Cuban exiles said that they will not even try to help because they have no trust in the government of President Fidel Castro.

Said Servilio Pérez, head of the Cuban Patriotic Political Counsel, "The hurricane in Cuba is Fidel Castro, and he has lasted 45 years.''

There was no advance word of U.S. economic aid to Cuba because of Ivan. Washington offered -- and Cuba rejected -- $50,000 in aid after Charley. Even if it comes, the newspaper Granma on Friday quoted Castro as saying he won't accept it.

REJECTING U.S. HELP

''Let them save themselves the hypocrisy of offering aid to Cuba,'' he said. ''The only thing we can allow is a total end to the blockade and the economic aggression of our country!'' Castro often refers to the United States' economic embargo as a blockade.

Sánchez, the dissident, said Castro's defiance had not gone down well among some of his Cuban acquaintances.

''Many people are indignant because they know that the government here does not have the ability to prevent damage that might occur,'' he said.

Herald staff writers Elaine De Valle, Gail Epstein Nieves and Oscar Corral contributed to this report.

Eleven dead in Jamaica; Ivan stronger; Caymans, Cuba next

By Jacqueline Charles and Martin Merzer, mmerzer@herald.com. Posted on Sat, Sep. 11, 2004.

KINGSTON, Jamaica - Sketchy initial reports suggested widespread, but possibly not catastrophic, damage in Jamaica this evening as Hurricane Ivan headed toward the Cayman Islands, Cuba and Florida -- and gained even more strength.

Authorities reported at least 11 hurricane-related deaths in Jamaica. At last count, Ivan claimed 56 lives through the Caribbean, including 34 in Grenada.

''Totally gone,'' Joy Powell said of her home and possessions in the seafront Caribbean Terrace community just outside the Jamaican capital of Kingston. All she was able to salvage was a red and beige shower curtain and a brown towel, both folded across her arm.

''Everything completely gone,'' she said. "I never thought anything like this would happen.''

As bad as it was, it could have been far worse.

Ivan's eye wall and the ferocious 155-mph winds around it miraculously took an unexpected hard left just as they neared Jamaica's southern coast. Then, the core mercifully ran parallel to the shore until the storm cleared the island.

And then, ominously, it regained its top-line Category 5 status, growing its winds to 165 mph.

Still, the shift in course raised the prospect of a reprieve for South Florida, but not the state as a whole, and -- to a lesser extent -- Havana, but not Cuba as a whole. Western Cuba and Florida's upper Gulf Coast remained on the vicious storm's hit list.

As the storm relinquished its grip on Jamaica, sporadic looting erupted in Kingston and gunfire flared between police and suspected looters in one section of the populous capital.

Second-hand reports spoke of substantial roof and structural damage to homes in the hills above the city. Street lights and wind-flattened billboards lay on sidewalks.

A huge storm surge topped by 20-foot waves washed out many seafront homes. Portions of the sea wall collapsed, helpless against the furious ocean. Streets were flooded chin-high, boulders tossed into streets like pebbles.

Twelve inches of rain turned roads into treacherous rivers and began flooding many areas.

New Kingston resident Lisa Campbell said some office buildings in the city's business district lost windows and there was some flooding in her building on Worthington Avenue.

''The wind was unspeakable,'' she said. "It was howling, water came in through the windows, just below the front door of the apartment. I got goose bumps.''

Still, she said: "I think we fared a whole lot better than we thought we would have.''

Roofs flew away with the wind and heavy damage was reported in other areas in and around Kingston.

''My neighbor's roof blew off last night and she had to go underneath her bed, and it was in pure water,'' said Irene Cameron, 43, of Kingston. "This was the worst one we have ever seen.''

O'Neil Hamilton, a spokesman for the Jamaican Embassy in Washington, reported significant damage to homes in the Red Hills, Cherry Gardens, Norbrook and Stony Hill areas near Jamaica.

Heavy flooding was reported in the Harbour View area, on the road from Norman Manley International Airport.

Structural damage also was reported in Montego Bay, though some hotel managers said their properties fared reasonably well.

''We're still in a hurricane here now,'' Brian Roper, operations manager for Sandals' Resorts in Jamaica, told The Herald at 9:30 a.m. from his home in Montego Bay. "There are lots of downed trees . . . I see power lines still standing.

"This just stays and it's pounding and pounding. I can see from my room the seas have become very angry.''

Both Kingston and Montego Bay were relatively distant from Ivan's core. Fewer reports were available from other parts of the island, including those much closer to the storm's worst winds.

Nadine Newsome, a spokeswoman for Jamaica's disaster and emergency preparedness office, said officials won't know the extent of until much later today, after winds diminish throughout the island.

Still, throughout the island, uprooted trees splintered like toothpicks. Roads became treacherous rivers and windows shattered into deadly shards of glass. Shelters lost roofs and had to evacuate residents in the middle of the night.

Some homeowners sought shelter in their closets and bathrooms after their roofs ripped away. Throughout the country, there were reports of widespread flooding, and fallen mango trees and utility poles littering roadways, making them impassable.

In New Kingston, where both the Hilton and Pegasus hotels moved residents into the bottom floors, window panels blew away with the wind.

At the Hilton, guests slept on lawn chairs and mattresses inside a ballroom, while others played dominoes throughout the night. Buckets had to be set out throughout the second floor ballroom area, to collect water from a leaky roof.

As word of Ivan's passing began to spread, residents emerged from their homes, gathering on street corners and along major roads to assess the damage.

A once dry river bank now overflowed, emptying rust-colored water into the sea. Even the sea had changed color, now sporting a tri-color scheme of rust, blue and green.

In one section of Kingstown, bullets flew and 13 police officers knelt behind cars and aimed their weapons in two directions.

Ivan's shift to the west was not entirely a surprise, said Ed Rappaport, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade County.

Often, hurricanes -- as if they were living organisms -- try to avoid terrain that would interfere with their circulation. In this case, Jamaica's hills may have been such an obstacle, he said, so the hurricane followed a path that would have kept it fed by warm waters.

Then, amazingly, after sparing the island, Ivan's core returned to its previous course toward Cuba and Florida.

The news was not good for Cuba. Ivan still was expected to bring its fury to Cuba's Isle of Youth on Sunday and the main island early Monday, possibly as a top-range Category 5 storm, passing a little west of Havana.

More than 170,000 Cubans were ordered evacuated Friday and panic buying flared as the entire island fell under a hurricane watch. ''There's no way out,'' Jose Rubiera, Cuba's chief forecaster, told the Spanish news agency EFE. "Ivan will cross over Cuba.

''We must prepare for a hurricane that could be worse than Michelle,'' he said, referring to the storm that crossed and devastated the island in November 2001.

Another 5,000 residents of Santa Cruz del Sur, a city on the southern coast of Camaguey province, were ordered to evacuate this morning to the city of Camaguey in the center of the province, the Cuban daily Granma reported.

In eastern Santiago de Cuba, more than 7,500 people have been evacuated to safe ground and more will be removed on Saturday, Granma reported.

Herald staff writers Don Bohning, David Ovalle, Nicole White and Jane Wooldridge contributed to this report.

Cuba, Keys brace for worst

By Jacqueline Charles and Martin Merzer, mmerzer@herald.com. Posted on Sat, Sep. 11, 2004.

KINGSTON, Jamaica - Twenty-three-foot waves crashed ashore in Jamaica, a wave of panic buying swept Havana and the Florida Keys depopulated itself Friday -- the residents of three diverse nations simultaneously terrified by a fierce Hurricane Ivan.

And the storm grew even more ferocious as it approached landfall overnight in Jamaica. With its core just 35 miles from shore, the winds mushroomed to 155 mph -- on the brink of top-line Category 5 intensity.

Forecasters said the storm still posed significant danger to Florida, likely to pass over or close to the Keys early next week before reaching the mainland, possibly along the upper Gulf Coast. South Florida's weather could begin deteriorating Sunday.

The storm's death toll so far -- 37, and virtually certain to rise.

Even before the arrival in Jamaica of Ivan's catastrophic eye wall, overflowing rivers washed away homes, waist-high water flooded neighborhoods, and boulders, tree branches and other debris blocked the main road to the airport.

Power blackouts cascaded through the entire island. Ocean waves rolled through many seaside streets. The Hilton in New Kingston barricaded guests behind doors covered with plywood.

''This is going to be bad, bad, bad,'' said Roxanne Dyht of Helshire Beach.

Said her friend, Karen Nelson: ``I am afraid.''

The island received only one break -- Ivan's core was expected to spare densely populated Kingston, but torment did not and Prime Minister P.J. Patterson issued one last plea before everyone huddled wherever they could find shelter: ``Residents leaving near coastal areas must evacuate, before it is too late.''

Many resisted, saying they feared looters nearly as much as Ivan.

PANIC IN HAVANA

In Cuba, long lines formed at supermarkets and gas stations as residents searched for essential provisions. Ivan's wind and rain were expected there this morning, its core drilling the island's west-central coast Sunday night and possibly right through Havana.

''There is panic,'' one resident of Havana told The Herald on Friday. ``People are buying whatever food where they can find it.''

In the Keys, vacation hideaways and fishing villages were transformed into ghost towns and boarded-up bunkers. Even the generally steadfast denizens of the islands demonstrated their respect for Hurricane Ivan -- many got out of the way.

Thousands of residents and tourists streamed off the 120-mile chain in what officials called a remarkably comprehensive and thus far smooth evacuation.

The banner headline in Friday's Key West Citizen: ``OUTTA HERE''

''I don't think it's going to get to Texas,'' said Woody Woodward, 76, a longtime resident of Key Largo. That's where he and his wife were headed -- Texas.

Forecasts consistently predicted that Ivan's destructive core could pass very close to -- possibly right through -- Key West around midday Monday and making landfall on the mainland later Monday or Tuesday, possibly along the Gulf Coast.

Even if Ivan's core heads in that direction, outlying wind and rain will arrive in Miami-Dade and Broward counties by Sunday, forecasters said, with tropical-storm force winds likely to follow by midday Monday.

With South Florida possibly sitting on the strong, right side of the core, heavy rain and tornadoes could impact the area, they said.

At this point, that was theory.

Jamaica and, before it, Grenada already were fact -- and Ivan was taking its toll.

Ivan was expected to devastate Jamaica, a nation of 2.7 million people living in an area about the size of Connecticut.

In addition to the wind, forecasters predicted at least six to 10 inches of rain and life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Strong winds swiftly damaged banana and sugar cane crops in the hillside community of St. Ann's.

In Montego Bay, waistline-high water made a road impassable. In St. Elizabeth's Parish, only the top of a house's roof was visible after the rust-colored river overflowed its bank. In St. Thomas' Parish, two houses simply washed away.

''We have battened down and are trying to keep inside,'' said Karlene Nelson of St. Elizabeth Parish on the south side of the island.

TINY NATION BATTERED

Ivan's rampage across tiny Grenada earlier this week left at least 17 dead and the island nation of fewer than 100,000 people in ruin. Deaths also were reported in Venezuela, Barbados, Tobago and the Dominican Republic.

The storm damaged 90 percent of Grenada's homes, destroyed crops and ruined tourist resorts.

More than 100 soldiers from five Caribbean nations were dispatched to restore order amid widespread looting and sporadic violence. Instability and the new absence of warehouses led authorities to temporarily suspend relief shipments.

Several people who flew into Miami from Grenada told WFOR-CBS4 that the looting was chaotic.

''It's the most beautiful, idyllic place you could ever imagine and for it to just disintegrate into that kind of situation was just awful,'' said Dr. Gerald Angoff.

The State Department decided to use charter flights today to begin evacuating U.S. citizens from the island, a U.S. diplomat said late Friday.

Most U.S. citizens are medical students at the St. George's University, with an enrollment of 2,600.

Back in Florida, many thousands were still trying to recover from Hurricanes Charley and Frances, more than 650,000 customers remained without power and now Ivan was predicted to hit the state early next week.

So many people around the state, the nation and the world were tracking Ivan that the National Hurricane Center's website -- www.nhc.noaa.gov -- registered 7,500 hits per second.

Water managers warned that Ivan could trigger the widespread flooding that they've managed to limit despite back-to-back tropical deluges, with problems possibly spreading into suburbs that have remained dry thanks to a network of pumps running at full-bore.

''We don't have much capacity in the system right now. It's full,'' said Jo Ann Hyres, a spokeswoman for the South Florida Water Management District, which runs flood-control canals, gates and pumps in 16 counties.

With the storm slowing down a bit, officials in Miami-Dade and Broward remained in monitoring mode, saying they could wait until today or Sunday to take action, if necessary.

The outlook could be dimmer for Key West. Long-term forecasts, subject to large margins of error at this point, suggested that it and the rest of the Keys could absorb a beating.

''There's no way the Keys are going to escape some sort of impact,'' said Max Mayfield, the hurricane center's director.

He warned Floridians not to fixate on one area of possible landfall, as with Charley, when many thought the storm would hit the Tampa Bay area. It ended up making landfall about 40 miles away near Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda.

THOUSANDS FLEE

Police in the Keys reported heavy but steady traffic. At least 83,000 people were in the islands when this latest hurricane crisis began.

As always, some people decided to remain behind, even though they had some idea about what might be coming their way.

If the storm comes that way, that could be a mistake, officials said.

''Hospital workers are leaving, paramedics, law enforcement, everyone is hunkering down,'' said Irene Toner, Monroe County's emergency operations director. ``If you get hurt, don't call 911, because no one is going to be there.''

Most people seemed to get the message.

A few stragglers remained at the Silver Shores Adult Living Community, a 280-unit mobile home park on the Atlantic side of Key Largo, but they didn't expect to stay there long.

''You don't stay in aluminum cans,'' Pete McGladen said. ``It's simple physics.''

Herald staff writers Jennifer Babson, Pablo Bachelet, Wanda J. DeMarzo, Elaine De Valle, Margaria Fichtner, Steve Harrison, Curtis Morgan, David Ovalle, Matthew I. Pinzur, Charles Rabin, Nancy San Martin and Nicole White contributed to this report.

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