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CUBA
NEWS
The
Miami Herald
Cubans seen as hopeful about future
At a conference in Coral Gables, the top
U.S. diplomat in Havana said Cubans across
the island are looking forward to a change
in leadership.
By Nancy San Martin, nsanmartin@herald.com.
Posted on Wed, Nov. 10, 2004.
Fidel Castro's tumble to the ground last
month and an increasingly difficult economy
have prompted many Cubans to begin contemplating
the island's future, the top American diplomat
in Havana said Tuesday.
''All over the island people are discussing
the future, of what they want it to be,''
James Cason, chief of the U.S. Interests
Section, told a gathering of Cuban Americans
and Cuba-watchers in Coral Gables. "The
lonely voices in the opposition are getting
less lonely by the day.''
For years, most Cubans have been saying
that there's no use considering the island's
future until Castro dies because he wields
absolute power and has steadfastly refused
to adopt any of the significant reforms
that could ease a withering economic crisis.
Electricity blackouts last many hours
each day, prices have been rising, housing
shortages are mounting and underemployment
is rampant, with college graduates working
as gardeners and bellhops, other Cuba experts
said at the conference.
But now ''Cubans are increasingly losing
patience with Castro,'' Cason said. "In
the weeks since Castro's well-publicized
fall, more and more regime supporters are
now saying it is time for Castro to step
down.''
On a telephone hookup from Havana, leading
dissident Vladimiro Roca said he had heard
Cuban officials speak of a ''high level
of social intranquility'' but did not go
into details.
Cason's presentation was part of a day-long
conference that examined the lessons on
post-Communist transitions in the former
Eastern Europe and challenges that lay ahead
for Cuba once Castro is no longer in power.
The conference coincided with the 15th anniversary
of the fall of the Berlin Wall and was sponsored
by the University of Miami's Institute for
Cuban and Cuban-American Studies and the
Embassy of the Czech Republic.
Most participants appeared to agree that
there is little chance of an anti-Castro
revolt while he's still in power, sticking
to post-Castro scenarios. But they sketched
out a wide range of possibilities on what
could happen after Castro's demise.
In a separate telephone call from Havana,
prominent dissident Martha Beatriz Roque
told the crowd of about 200 that transition
in Cuba ''is very close.'' She said the
lingering economic crisis is ''irreversible''
under the current system.
''From inside and outside, we have to work
hard -- all of us who want to see a free
Cuba,'' said Roque, 59, an economist jailed
during a crackdown last year against 75
dissidents accused of working with U.S.
diplomats to undermine Cuba's socialist
system and sentenced to long prison terms.
She was released in July due to ill health.
Several of the conference's speakers also
urged Cuban exiles to set the stage for
a peaceful change once Castro is no longer
in power.
''The Cubans need a new message . . . a
message needed from exiles, to prepare for
tolerance,'' said Otto Reich, a Cuban American
who held top offices in the State Department
and the White House under President Bush.
Experts also cautioned that Cuba's military
will continue to play a powerful role in
virtually any of the scenarios, and that
a post-Castro transitional government may
not fully embrace democratic principles
or a free market economic model.
''The Cuban population, like the Czech
population, has been educated in a state
of fear and mistrust,'' said Vendulka Kubalkova,
a UM professor of international studies.
"They were not raised to handle, very
well, the individualism that is necessary
for a successful democracy.''
''It's important to be prepared once the
self-imposed Cuban wall crumbles,'' she
said. "It will open a very, very difficult
period for which I think no recipe exists.''
Cason also warned against high expectations
following Castro's passing.
''All Cubans, no matter how they feel about
the regime, are playing a waiting game these
days, some with anxiety, some with gleeful
anticipation,'' he said. "We must not
assume, however, that when Castro dies,
Cuba will transform itself into a democracy
the following day.
''Most Cubans on the island today have
known nothing but communism -- 70 percent
were born after the revolution,'' Cason
added. "Simply plunking down a genuine
electoral system won't be sufficient in
the future. It will take at least a generation
to acquire the habits of democracy on the
island.''
Herald chief of correspondents Juan O.
Tamayo contributed to this report.
Chinese president's visit will concentrate
on trade
Posted on Wed, Nov. 10,
2004.
Question: China's president, Hu Jintao,
is making his first visit to the region
this week, meeting with leaders in Argentina,
Brazil, Chile and Cuba. What is the economic
and political importance of President Hu's
visit? What possible stumbling blocks are
on the horizon for Sino-Latin American relations?
Answer from Cynthia Watson, a professor
at the National War College (her views are
not those of the National War College or
any U.S. government agency): [Hu's] consultations
in Chile will focus on possible trade enhancement
through a free trade agreement between Santiago
and Beijing; China is already a large consumer
of Chilean copper. In Argentina, Hu appears
likely to discuss greater ties in the energy
sector.
The Cuba portion of the visit will cover
biotechnology projects, sports and the possibility
of greater tourism in Cuba. Chinese citizens
are increasingly able to travel as their
sources of disposable income grow.
Most importantly, following on President
Lula da Silva's visit to Beijing in May,
Brazil would like to see soybeans and natural
resources go to China while increasing its
market access there. Bilateral trade between
these states has grown dramatically recently.
The increasing number of visits -- by civilian
and military leadership -- to South America
appear likely to continue without causing
panic in Washington if they remain low-level
and Washington is distracted by events elsewhere.
Answer from Kenneth Maxwell, senior fellow,
David Rockefeller Center for Latin American
Studies at Harvard University: What more
paradoxical story can there be than the
growing role of China within Latin America
today? While the United States runs up huge
trade deficits with China that serve to
engorge the coffers of the last great communist
regime on Earth, Washington has reduced
its policy attention in the Western Hemisphere
to the narrow, increasingly atavistic and
mutually reinforcing preoccupations of a
decrepit old communist dictator in Havana
and Cuban-American politicos in Miami. Together
they perpetuate a post-Cold War mini-Cold
War across the Florida Straits and make
this the sum total of U.S. interest in the
Americas. But this obsessive focus is so
narrow and blinkered that it does not even
extend to Cuba's neighbor to the east, the
floundering republic of Haiti. With Washington
struggling to sustain troop levels in Iraq,
the United States in its own ''backyard''
has devolved peacekeeping to the soldiers
of Brazil (Washington's competitor for leadership
in South America and a country which is
currently greatly benefiting from increased
Chinese trade), and, even more remarkably,
to (guess who?) Chinese policemen! As to
what is going on in South America, the U.S.
Treasury by all accounts has put the region
out to pasture.
Answer from Geoffrey Milton, formerly head
of Arab Banking Corp. in New York City:
I cannot recall such a high-level visit
from the Chinese government to these four
countries at the same time. Cuba is presumably
just a gesture to its communist ally in
the region, but economically the other three
[Chile, Brazil and Argentina] are very significant.
Answer from Claudio Loser, senior fellow
at the Inter-American Dialogue: China has
been a major client of Latin America for
years, even at the height of the Cultural
Revolution. Now, China has become the second
largest client of Argentina, Brazil and
Chile. However, one should not overestimate
the willingness or ability of China to invest
in the region.
Portions of Inter-American Dialogue's Latin
America Advisor run each Wednesday and Saturday.
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