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Chávez could act
to deepen his 'revolution'
Andres Oppenheimer, aoppenheimer@herald.com.
Posted on Tue, Aug. 17, 2004 in The
Miami Herald.
CARACAS - When firebrand leftist President
Hugo Chávez said he would stay in
power until 2021, he may not have been joking:
People who know him well say he will interpret
his proclaimed victory in Sunday's referendum
as a mandate to deepen his ''revolution''
and install an elected dictatorship.
But before I say why I'm not so sure that
he will succeed, let's state for the record
that this was one of the most surprising
elections I've seen in recent times. By
Sunday night, there were unofficial exit
polls by respected independent groups such
as Súmate, which gave the opposition
an 18 percentage-point lead. Then, at 3
a.m. Chávez proclaimed victory by
a 16-point margin.
On Monday, while a shocked opposition was
claiming electronic fraud, the Carter Center
and the Organization of American States
corroborated the Chávez victory.
Barring evidence of fraud in coming days,
the Carter Center and the OAS will enjoy
the benefit of the doubt: In the past, they
have been pretty good about confronting
would-be dictators in Peru, Haiti and Panama.
If Chávez won, it was thanks to
a combination of massive intimidation, unabashed
use of state resources for propaganda, and
the use of $1.6 billion from the country's
oil income for cash subsidies to the poor.
Chávez handed out $160 a month in
cash to hundreds of thousands of people
who for the first time received something
concrete from their government.
PERSPECTIVES
While it's true that Chávez's fiery
rhetoric has scared away investors, triggered
capital flight, forced the closing of nearly
7,000 companies and has left Venezuela with
two million more poor people than when Chávez
took office five years ago, it is also true
that none of this matters to millions of
people who never have had formal jobs and
have no expectations of ever getting any.
To them, the cash in hand may have been
more meaningful than opposition promises
that economic growth would bring about jobs
for everyone.
In addition, intimidation was visible everywhere.
The Chávez government in recent months
fired thousands of government workers who
had signed a 3.4-million signature petition
to hold Sunday's referendum. And it installed
12,000 fingerprinting machines in voting
places for Sunday's vote, allegedly to keep
people from voting twice, but at the same
time spreading fears that people's vote
would not be secret.
BIG PRESENCE
On Thursday, while touring the downtown
Caracas area of El Centro, I saw the whole
place covered with pro-Chávez signs
but not one single one from the opposition.
''Every time the opposition tries to put
up a sign, the chavistas beat them violently,''
the opposition mayor of Caracas, Alfredo
Peña, told me. "My own office
has been attacked 26 times by armed chavistas
on the government payroll.''
People who know Chávez well say
that he will behave like an altar boy for
a few days and will radicalize his revolution
shortly afterward.
Chávez already controls Congress,
the Supreme Court, the electoral tribunal,
the central bank, the armed forces and the
PDVSA oil monopoly. Pro-Chávez legislators
in Congress have already proposed bills
to curtail press freedoms and to dismantle
the Caracas police and other local police
forces run by opposition mayors. In addition,
Chávez has promised to strengthen
his Bolivarian Circles, his Cuban-modeled
neighborhood watch committees.
Still, it won't be easy for Chávez
to install a Cuban-style dictatorship. He
has 45 percent of the population passionately
against him. And he may not want to risk
international rejection by closing down
opposition media, which are the last line
of defense against his near-absolute powers.
In the end, whether Chávez turns
into a full-blown dictator may depend on
oil prices. World oil prices have soared
from $9 a barrel when Chávez took
office five years ago to a near record $45
a barrel today, which has allowed Chávez
to reverse a dramatic fall in the polls
last year.
But, unless the current oil bonanza lasts
a long time, there is no way Chávez
will be able to maintain his generosity.
Venezuela has become poorer under his rule,
and now there are millions more people demanding
instant gratification. Chávez won't
have it easy.
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