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Keep
U.S. embargo on Cuba
Carlos Alberto Montaner. Posted
on Thu, Oct. 02, 2003 in The
Miami Herald.
Mikhail Gorbachev is coming to Miami. He was
invited by academic groups and institutions eager
to end the U.S. trade embargo imposed on the Cuban
dictatorship.
Among the hosts and sponsors, there are Republican
and Democratic politicians and exporters who have
no horizons other than increasing their sales.
There are people closely related to U.S. circles
of power, including its intelligence corps and
those directly controlled by the Cuban government's
police apparatus. There are pro-Castro and anti-Castro
people.
There are ''strategists'' certain that fluid
relations between Washington and Havana will accelerate
the end of communism. There are others convinced
that those links now will help consolidate the
regime at its worst economic moment and tomorrow
will guarantee the survival of communism after
Castro's death -- objectives that they see as
commendable and consonant with the interests of
the government they admire or secretly serve.
No better person than Gorbachev exists to preside
over an event at which each group hopes for different
and sometimes contradictory results. After all,
Gorbachev is the quintessence of paradox: He rose
to power to save communism and ended up burying
it. The KGB placed him at the helm so that he
could restore the Soviet Union's glory, and he
wound up causing its dissolution.
Now he comes to Miami to advocate a cause dear
to Fidel Castro. But Castro's objectives are only
two: an end to travel restrictions, so he can
count on a couple of million tourists every year;
and access to soft credits, so he can buy U.S.
goods.
Will these groups achieve a change in Washington's
policy? Realistically, that will be difficult.
The arguments in favor of lifting the embargo
are not as weighty as those that counsel retaining
it.
Why alleviate the Cuban government's economic
situation when history has shown that every time
Castro strengthens his power, he invests those
resources to retract the few morsels of economic
freedom granted to the people during the periods
of deep crisis?
Thanks to crisis, the armed forces were reduced
in half. Thanks to crisis, the regime was forced
to allow farmers markets and dollar remittances
from abroad. Thanks to crisis, Castro had to accept
certain labor activities involving self-employment
and the creation of family-run restaurants and
hostels. But, as is now evident, as the government
managed to overcome its worst moments, it began
to regress into the most orthodox Stalinism.
The conclusion is obvious: The Cuban people's
way of life improves as its government worsens.
And vice versa.
Considerations about the future also weigh a
lot on White House policymakers. Castro, age 77,
and the dictatorship, age 44, are in their final
stages. Inside Cuba, especially within the power
structure, the atmosphere is that of a regime's
end.
Everyone knows that Cuba's absurd political model,
a copy of the 1970s Soviet madhouse, will not
survive long after the caudillo is dead, but the
nomenklatura hopes to transfer authority and prolong
its permanence in power. To achieve that succession
without any trauma, however, it will have to reach
an accord with the United States and Europe and
normalize its economic and political relations
with the First World.
That's the card that the United States is saving.
Once Castro is dead, the Cuban ruling class is
overwhelmed by the huge power vacuum and all economic
activity suddenly stops as everyone waits to see
what will happen, only then will the offer be
made to lift the embargo and grant generous aid
in exchange for democracy and freedoms for the
Cuban people.
Pedro Roig, a lawyer, historian and director
of Radio and TV Martí, has said, "If
the United States sacrifices its most valuable
trump card right now, how will it stimulate the
transition to democracy in Cuba once the time
to negotiate actually arrives?''
He's right. The United States and Latin America
must not be content with allowing a communist
dictatorship to remain in Cuba, even if Castro's
heirs promise to be homely jailers. If U.S. diplomacy
learned anything in the 20th century, it was that
the only guarantee for a peaceful neighborhood
devoted to the people's well-being through the
exercise of commerce exists when countries practice
democracy and respect for human rights.
The Somozas spawned Sandinism. Batista spawned
Fidel Castro. The key is to induce the establishment
of democracy in Cuba. For that it is necessary
to keep intact the capacity to negotiate.
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