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The Miami
Herald, May 16, 2002.
Poll says exiles shifting from hard-line positions
By Andres Oppenheimer. Aoppenheimer@herald.com
In what pollsters call a steady shift away from hard-line positions, a new
poll shows a virtual tie among Cuban exiles on the issue of whether the Bush
administration should lift restrictions on Americans who want to travel to Cuba.
The poll also found that practically half of those surveyed said they send
money to their families in Cuba, a significant source of income for a country
whose government is often in desperate need of hard currency, particularly
dollars.
Most Cuban-American exiles support a peaceful and gradual transition to
democracy in Cuba, including possible amnesty for Cuban government officials,
according to the poll, which was obtained by The Herald and is being released
today by a group of influential exiles.
The findings are being issued just days before President Bush visits Miami
to announce an expected tightening of the travel and economic embargo. The
adjustment is designed to accommodate the perceived hard-line stance of the
exile community in South Florida, but the poll suggests attitudes are becoming
more, rather than less, flexible.
The poll, conducted by Bendixen and Associates in late April, showed a
continued -- if not very enthusiastic -- support for the U.S. trade embargo on
the island. Exiles are almost evenly divided on whether the trade embargo has
worked, and a majority think it should no longer be the U.S. principal tool to
help bring about democratic changes on the island.
''What surprised me the most is that a solid majority of those interviewed
are willing to give an amnesty to officials of Fidel Castro's government,'' said
Sergio Bendixen, who conducted the poll for the Cuba Study Group, an informal
association of more than a dozen wealthy Cuban exiles. "In the past, that
was a mortal sin in Miami.''
Indeed, in sharp contrast with the majority opinion among Cuban exiles a
decade ago, most seem to have given up on the idea of an anti-Castro rebellion
on the island. Seventy-nine percent of those polled said they prefer a ''gradual
and peaceful'' transition to democracy, while only 16 percent said they would
rather have an ''abrupt and violent'' change of government.
According to the telephone poll of 800 Cuban exiles in Miami-Dade County,
which organizers said has a margin of error of 3 percent, a 56 percent majority
said they would favor an amnesty for Castro government officials who cooperated
with a transition to democracy. Only 29 percent opposed such amnesty.
''The poll shows that Cuban exiles are not an intransigent group, stuck in
the past,'' said Carlos Saladrigas, chairman of Premier American Bank and one of
the Cuba Study Group leaders. "It's a group that is willing to seek new
alternatives that could be the most effective in bringing about democracy in
Cuba.''
A previous poll by the Cuba Study Group was criticized by some hard-line
exile groups, arguing among other things that its organizers had failed to
disclose that it had been conducted more than a year before its release. Such
criticism prompted the group to commission a new survey, organizers said.
Pepe Hernandez, president of the Cuban American National Foundation, the
biggest and until recently one of the most hard-line group of Cuban exiles, said
he is not surprised by the results. The CANF's own internal polls show a similar
trend toward a national reconciliation among Cubans, he said.
''Over the past few years, but especially since the Elián González
episode, there has been a change,'' Hernandez said. "Growing numbers of
exiles no longer look at the situation in Cuba in terms of confrontation, but in
terms of reconciliation, in the sense of looking for a common destiny, and not
one in which there will be winners and losers.''
Hernandez said the change is the result of demographics: Since the 1994
migration accords that allowed more than 20,000 Cubans to emigrate annually to
the United States, about 250,000 Cubans -- including rafters -- have come to
America. Most of them are young people, who have parents, siblings and close
friends on the island, and who don't consider the people left behind as their
enemies, he said.
''In addition, there is a feeling that the Cuban people have suffered too
much already, and that we need to head toward a process of transition,''
Hernandez added.
Ninoska Pérez Castellón, a leading member of the hard-line
Cuban Liberty Council, which recently split from the CANF, was skeptical about
the new poll. She suggested that the questions may have been asked in such a way
as to elicit the responses organizers wanted.
''When they talk about reconciliation, the question that should be asked is
reconciliation with whom,'' Pérez Castellón said. "If we are
talking about reconciliation with a surgeon who applied electroshocks to
political prisoners, I wouldn't support reconciliation.''
The new poll by Bendixen and Associates found that 48 percent of Cuban
exiles are sending money to their relatives in Cuba. According to estimates of
the Inter-American Development Bank and other organizations, such money
transfers pump anywhere from $600 to $950 million a year into the Cuban economy,
and have become one of the island's top income sources.
While a 61 percent majority wants the U.S. government to continue the trade
embargo, 52 percent believe the sanctions should no longer be the focus of U.S.
Cuba policy, and should be replaced by new measures. In addition, 46 percent of
the exiles polled support lifting restrictions on American tourists to visit
Cuba, while 47 percent are against changing the current rules -- a technical tie
given the poll's margin of error.
And while the majority supports keeping the U.S. trade embargo, 65 percent
want the U.S. government to continue allowing exiles to send money to their
relatives in Cuba, and 53 percent would want it to lift restrictions on the
amount of money that can be sent.
In addition to Saladrigas, the Cuba Study Group includes among others former
U.S. ambassador to Belgium and chairman of PLC Investments Paul L. Cejas, Coca
Cola Puerto Rico Bottlers and Eagles Brands Chairman Carlos de la Cruz, and
Flo-Sun Inc. Chairman Alfonso Fanjul.
Herald intern Larissa Ruiz Campo contributed to this report.
U.S. rejects Carter's plea to end embargo on Cuba
By Tim Johnson. tjohnson@krwashington.com
WASHINGTON - The White House on Wednesday labeled Fidel Castro as ''one of
the last great tyrants on earth'' and flatly rejected demands to end an embargo
of Cuba, dismissing a high-profile appeal by former President Jimmy Carter and a
clamor from a bipartisan group on Capitol Hill.
''The president believes that the trade embargo is a vital part of America's
foreign policy,'' White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said. "Trade with
Cuba does not benefit the people of Cuba. . . . It's used to prop up a
repressive regime.''
The Bush administration will do nothing to help the 75-year-old Castro
''keep himself in power,'' Fleischer said.
DUELING
The White House and Capitol Hill are dueling over the direction of U.S.
policy toward Cuba, and the struggle has grown more intense in recent days.
Last week, a senior Bush administration official accused Cuba of maintaining
a ''limited offensive'' biological weapons capability. This week, Carter arrived
in Havana for the highest profile U.S. visit in decades, and immediately
appealed for an easing of tensions.
Next Monday, before traveling to South Florida, President Bush will give a
major policy address on Cuba that is likely to spell out measures to toughen
pressure on the Castro regime.
Bush is expected to issue a ringing call for democracy, freedom and human
rights on the island, which has been ruled as a one-party Marxist state since
1959.
''There are very clear nonnegotiable items that have been United States
policy for years -- free speech, release of prisoners, free media. What the
president will talk about is how we get to those principles,'' said a senior
administration official, who insisted on anonymity.
Fleischer said any relaxation of the 4-decade-old trade embargo would give
the Castro "government more resources to repress its people.''
In an unprecedented speech in Havana on Tuesday night that was broadcast
live in Cuba, Carter urged Washington to ''repeal the embargo'' and permit
unrestricted travel to the island, which is largely off-limits to U.S. citizens.
He urged Cuba to permit civil and political freedoms and respect human rights.
Fleischer said the White House reaction to the Carter speech was "twofold.''
''The president thinks that President Carter talking on human rights is
important and helpful,'' he said. "Two . . . the president disagrees when
it comes to the importance of the trade embargo.''
While differences over Cuba policy between a sitting Republican president
and an out-of-office Democratic president might seem predictable, a renewed call
by a bipartisan group on Capitol Hill for an easing of the U.S. embargo
underscored that the issue long ago moved away from clean partisan lines.
The bipartisan group of 40 legislators, many of them from heartland states
where farmers are eager to export grain and foodstuffs to Cuba, released a
nine-point plan for easing trade restrictions to Cuba.
''Simply put, the U.S.'s Cuba policy has failed,'' said Arizona Republican
Rep. Jeff Flake, a leader of the bloc. "After more than forty years,
Castro's grip on the island is as tight as ever. The Cuban people still can't
openly disagree with their government, they still can't hold free and fair
elections, and they still can't enjoy the benefits of capitalism.''
One member of the bloc, Rep. Tim Roemer, an Indiana Democrat who sits on the
House Intelligence Committee, dismissed the charge by a State Department
official last week that Cuba maintains a program in biological weaponry.
GROUP'S PROPOSALS
In their proposals, the 40-member Cuba Working Group called for the lifting
of all travel restrictions to Cuba and normalization of trade in agricultural
and medical products to the island, the lifting of caps on remittances that
exiles may send to relatives in Cuba, and reform of the Radio and TV Martí
stations that the U.S. government uses to beam news to the island.
''TV Martí is a television station without an audience,'' said Rep.
William Delahunt, a Massachusetts Democrat, who added that no Cuban has ever
seen its programming.
One legislator in the 40-member bloc, which comprises an equal number of
Republicans and Democrats, said Capitol Hill and the White House are on a
collision course over Cuba.
''We expect that the president will take a hard line on this on Monday,''
said Rep. Sam Farr, a California Democrat. "You've seen the mood of
Congress. The mood of Congress is to move in a different direction.''
The Senate's majority leader, Tom Daschle, concurred that many in Congress
want a new approach that would allow trade with Cuba.
''We can democratize Cuba with greater trade and greater outreach, and
that's what I think an overwhelming, bipartisan majority of the senators have
said,'' Daschle remarked.
Following a devastating hurricane last November, Cuba began making limited
purchases of grains and foodstuffs from U.S. companies, paying cash under a U.S.
law enacted in the year 2000 that permits cash purchases of grains and food
products.
The sales have amounted to around $73 million, and another $25 million or so
of purchases are expected in the next couple of months.
White House correspondent Ron Hutcheson of The Herald's Washington Bureau
contributed to this report.
Carter gives Cubans' rights a TV plug
From Herald Staff and Wire Reports
HAVANA - Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter's exposure of a grass-roots
petition drive was mentioned for the first time in Cuba's state-run media
Wednesday as stunned Cubans learned more about a campaign for more civil
liberties in their communist country.
When Carter spoke Tuesday night, live and uncensored on government TV and
radio, it was the first time Cubans had ever heard anyone question their
political system in such a bold and public manner.
Carter praised a political reform effort, known as Project Varela, by saying
it would provide "freedom to change laws peacefully by a direct vote.''
''Oh! My mother!'' said a 62-year-old retiree who gave her name only as
Magaly. "I didn't think Carter would be so daring!''
In a meeting Wednesday with Ricardo Alarcón, president of Cuba's
National Assembly, Carter again was expected to push the Cuban government to
allow the proposed referendum seeking a number of democratic reforms run its
legal, constitutional course.
Information on the content of the meeting was not released Wednesday.
Organizers of the Varela Project delivered 11,020 signatures last week in
hopes of getting the National Assembly to act on the citizens' request when it
convenes this summer. The referendum is based on five points: freedom of
expression and association; amnesty for political prisoners; free enterprise;
electoral reform; and elections within one year, if the referendum is approved
by voters.
The government has labeled the effort a ''foreign'' product ''imported''
from the United States.
During his 20-minute speech Tuesday night, Carter also criticized U.S.
policy toward Cuba and called for an end to the 41-year-old economic embargo.
The appeals came a day after Carter contradicted a U.S. official's assertion
that Cuba is involved in the development of technology that could be used for
biological warfare.
Carter's public assertions -- about the embargo and the bioweapons charge --
seem to have hardened the Bush administration's resolve to tighten U.S. policy
toward Cuba even further.
''The president believes that the trade embargo is a vital part of U.S.
policy . . . because trade with Cuba doesn't benefit the people of Cuba,'' White
House press secretary Ari Fleischer said Wednesday. "It's used to prop up
an oppressive regime.''
Russia, meanwhile, praised President Fidel Castro for allowing Carter to
visit and expressed hope that Carter's visit would lead to an end of the
embargo. ''We share [Carter's] opinion that it is time to normalize these
relations and cancel the American embargo,'' the Foreign Ministry said
Wednesday.
For many Cubans on the island, Carter's speech -- delivered at the
University of Havana with Castro watching just a few steps away -- provided the
first opportunity to hear about the Varela Project, a 3-year-old
signature-gathering campaign named after a 19th century Catholic priest and
Cuban independence activist.
Though many were not sure what to make of the project, it was clear they had
paid attention to what the former president had to say.
''I am really impressed by Carter,'' said hot-dog vendor René Hernández,
59. "I think he is a man of really solid principles.''
''I liked what [Carter] said,'' said Floraida Arnau, 40-year-old cellphone
saleswoman at the bustling Carlos III shopping center in central Havana. ''Maybe
he'll have a bit of luck'' for bringing about change.
With the Varela Project now in the public domain, Cuban media acknowledged
its existence.
Minutes after Carter's speech, the official news agency Prensa Latina for
the first time mentioned the initiative by name, noting, "Cuban officials
have described the project as a product engineered from outside the country,
which is seeking a referendum on reforming the Constitution in effect since
1976.''
On Wednesday, Granma, the Communist Party's officials newspaper, again
mentioned the Varela Project, noting briefly: "Law school Dean José
Luis Toledo responded [to Carter, in a question-and-answer session] that it has
its origin in people in the United States who are trying to subvert domestic
order in Cuba.''
''And he asked [Carter] if the U.S. Constitution would allow a tiny group of
its citizens, prodded on by a foreign power, to try to change the basic founding
principles of the nation,'' Granma stated.
Carter today is expected to meet with several groups to discuss human rights
and civil liberties in Cuba. The meeting will take place at a private residence
in Havana and will include independent journalists and librarians, labor leaders
and more than 15 dissidents. | 
