Will
Obama's Stance on Cuba Hurt?
By Tim Padgett/Miami. TIME,
August 22, 2007.
Conventional political wisdom in the bellwether
state of Florida has always focused on Cuban-Americans,
especially those influential exiles who
take a hard line against any U.S. engagement
with Fidel Castro's Cuba. Cross them, says
the presidential candidate handbook, and
say adios to the Sunshine State's 27 electoral
votes.
So why would Barack Obama - who is scraping
to keep up with Hillary Clinton for the
2008 Democratic presidential nomination
- ignore that seemingly golden rule? Why,
in a Tuesday op-ed piece in the Miami Herald,
would he challenge the Cuban-American elders
and call for dismantling President Bush's
hefty restrictions on Cuban-Americans making
visits and sending money to relatives in
Cuba?
Maybe it's because Obama knows a new conventional
wisdom may well be taking shape in the state
- one that could actually make his declarations
this week an asset when Florida holds its
primary election next January. "A democratic
opening in Cuba is, and should be, the foremost
objective of our policy," Obama wrote
in the Herald. But while making that standard
declaration, he also argued that "Cuban-American
connections to family in Cuba are not only
a basic right in humanitarian terms, but
also our best tool for helping to foster
the beginnings of grass-roots democracy
on the island." As a result, he said,
"I will grant Cuban-Americans unrestricted
rights to visit family and send remittances
to the island."
The restrictions - widely viewed as a thank-you
to the hardline exile bloc that helped Bush
win Florida in 2000 - allow Cuban-Americans
to visit the island for only 14 days every
three years and limit remittances to $1,200
per year. "It's almost as if you have
to decide ahead of time when a relative
is going to die," says Miami immigration
attorney Magda Montiel Davis, a Cuban-American
moderate who says she is now voting for
Obama after reading his Herald article.
Bush and hardline leaders insist the policy
helps keep U.S. dollars out of Castro's
hands. But "it has also made [Cubans
living in Cuba] more dependent on the Castro
regime," Obama argued in the Herald,
"and isolated them from the transformative
message carried there by Cuban-Americans."
In response to Obama's statement, Hillary
Clinton continued her recent attacks on
his perceived foreign policy naivete, insisting
that "until it is clear what type of
policies might come with a new [Cuban] government,
we cannot talk about changes in the U.S.
polices toward Cuba." But by playing
that safe card in Florida, Clinton may have
allowed herself to be "outmaneuvered
by Obama on this one," says one Cuban-American
leader who asked not to be identified, pointing
to a recent Florida International University
poll showing that more than 55% of Cuban-Americans
in Miami favor unrestricted travel to Cuba.
That survey, say academics like Rafael
Lima, a University of Miami communications
professor and the son of an exile once imprisoned
by Castro, reflects the growing number of
younger, more moderate Cuban-American voters
in South Florida - and the waning clout
of the older, more conservative generation.
Unlike their elders, the younger generation
believes that the 45-year-old economic embargo
against Cuba has utterly failed to dislodge
its communist leader. As a result, Obama
could now galvanize those moderates, who
Lima says "have been waiting for a
viable presidential candidate to wave their
banner for once."
Not that Miami's Cuban-American community
has an overwhelming number of registered
Democrats to woo in the first place. The
exiles have traditionally voted Republican
ever since they abandoned President John
F. Kennedy because of his botched direction
of the Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961. But
Miami Democrats like Elena Freyre, a Cuban-American
art gallery owner in Little Havana, say
they've been trying to tell Democratic candidates
to stop parroting the hardline position.
"Obama's people were the first who
ever said to me on the phone, 'Wait, let
me get a pen and write that down,'"
says Freyre. "He's the first to have
the cojones to say Bush's policy is wrong,
and I think it's going to wake up a lot
of moderate Cuban-American voters."
At the same time, Obama's stance could
help him garner a larger share of the state's
non-Cuban Democrats (especially non-Cuban
Latinos), who were repulsed by hardline
exile politics during the Elian Gonzalez
fiasco. And as for the general election,
even many hardline voters have changed their
mind about Bush's travel and remittance
policy.
Obama will get a better idea of how his
position is playing out when he takes the
stage Saturday for a Miami Democratic fundraiser
at the Miami-Dade County Auditorium - located
in the hardline bastion of Little Havana.
He and Clinton will also get a chance to
square off on Cuba policy on Sept. 30 during
a scheduled Democratic presidential debate
at the University of Miami. The responses
at both events should be a good gauge of
whether the rules in Florida are really
ready to be broken.
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