CUBA NEWS
The Miami Herald

Summit provides a look at Raúl Castro as Cuba's acting leader

Addressing leaders from developing nations, Raúl Castro has diligently stood in for his iconic sibling at the Nonaligned Movement summit, giving a glimpse of his own leadership style.

By Anita Snow, Associated Press. Posted on Sun, Sep. 17, 2006

HAVANA - Raúl takes center stage.

Acting President Raúl Castro is giving Cubans and the world a preview of how he may lead if his brother Fidel does not return to power: efficiently and with little fanfare.

Addressing leaders from developing nations, Raúl Castro has diligently stood in for his iconic sibling at the Nonaligned Movement summit this weekend.

DILIGENT STAND-IN

Speaking with gravitas but with none of Fidel Castro's passionate gestures, he repeatedly exhorted them to unite against ''imperialist'' U.S. policies.

''With this summit the world has discovered more about who Raúl Castro is,'' Cuban Foreign Minister Felipe Pérez Roque said.

Raúl Castro has been much more visible at the summit, his first real opportunity to appear as a statesman since his 80-year-old brother fell ill in late July.

And while he seemed a bit stiff on Thursday while presiding over the Group of 15 meeting on the summit sidelines, he soon settled into the businesslike operating style he's long been known for as defense minister.

''Of course Raúl must be congratulated'' for successfully managing the gathering of more than 100 nations, Panamanian President Martín Torrijos told The Associated Press Saturday. "The way the event has gone shows that he has been on top of things.''

Raúl Castro, 75, had mostly avoided public statements since Fidel temporarily ceded power after undergoing intestinal surgery. ''He appears in public when he considers it necessary, and no more,'' Pérez Roque said.

Staying home in his pajamas, Fidel Castro has met privately with foreign visitors, including U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan and Presidents Hugo Chávez of Venezuela and Abdelaiziz Bouteflika of Algeria.

LARGER THAN LIFE

In his stead, it's Raúl who has become larger than life this week as his face, bespectacled and with a mustache, was splashed across the huge screens on both sides of the stage in Havana's convention center.

Physically, Raúl compares unfavorably to his older brother.

He's a head shorter and lacks Fidel's Romanesque profile, athletic physique and rebel's beard.

His dull speech-giving style can't compete with Fidel's oratory flourishes.

But he gets the job done.

Raúl's wife believed to be very ill

The woman who often served as Cuba's first lady, the wife of acting leader Raúl Castro, is believed to be seriously ill with colon cancer.

By Frances Robles. frobles@MiamiHerald.com. Posted on Sat, Sep. 16, 2006.

As Raúl Castro rules Havana while his brother Fidel recovers from surgery, Cuba watchers say Raúl's longtime wife, Vilma Espín, is also believed to be seriously ill.

Although there's been no official word out of Cuba, reports of Espín's illness have been making the rounds in South Florida as the woman who often served as the island's first lady misses more and more important events.

Espín has been president of the Cuban Federation of Women for all of its 46 years, and for the first time last month missed its annual anniversary celebration.

The Holguín-based newspaper Ahora recently published a letter Espín wrote for last year's anniversary, suggesting that she was not even well enough to pen a statement this year.

Espín also did not attend the 13th Latin American congress on sexology and sexual education in Brazil, where she was to receive an award. And radio station CMHW in the central city of Santa Clara referred to her last month in the maudlin terms often reserved for the very sick or dead, saying she was the "eternal guide of the newborn motherland.''

Last month, El Nuevo Herald published a story on the spreading word of Espín's ill health, including one report that she may be suffering from colon cancer.

Raúl Castro temporarily assumed his brother's leadership titles July 31 after the 80-year-old Fidel underwent surgery for intestinal bleeding. Fidel is reported to be recuperating, but Espín's reported ailment might be putting added pressures on the 75-year-old Raúl.

''I have heard she is in fact very sick and is on a respirator, but I have no way of confirming that,'' said Marifeli Pérez Stable, a Cuba expert at the InterAmerican Dialogue, a Washington-based organization. "I also heard that she asked to be moved to Santiago, where she is from, to die.

"I get this from someone who has contact with well-placed people. I think it's true because of the source, but no one in Cuba is going to say that on the record.''

''She's certainly in very bad shape,'' independent journalist Oscar Espinosa Chepe said by phone from Havana. ''Everyone knows that she is terminal.'' But experts note that Espín has been reported to be very sick before, and in July rumors swept Miami that she had in fact passed away.

''I know that she was very sick on other occasions,'' said Alina Fernández, Fidel Castro's daughter who now lives in Miami. "Two years ago they said she was very, very, grave, and they were preparing the funeral. I am not sure if she was seen again after that.''

Raúl and Fidel Castro's sister Juanita, a Miami pharmacy owner, said she has heard the same reports about Espín but has not spoken to anyone in Cuba to confirm them.

Espín gained fame in the late 1950s, when she was among the upper-class women who joined the Castro brothers in the Sierra Maestra mountains to fight dictator Fulgencio Batista. She used the nom de guerre ''Deborah'' -- a name she later gave her first daughter.

She and Raúl wed shortly after the revolution's 1959 triumph. Some rumors have them separating some 20 years ago -- in fact some reports claim Raúl Castro has another wife -- but Espín continued in her role as Cuba's first lady. Fidel Castro's own wife, Dalia Sotodelvalle, has never made any official appearances.

''Raúl has always been very protective of Vilma, and used to become angry at Fidel's insistence that she take the role of first lady. He did not like that,'' said Ileana Fuentes, of the Cuban Feminist Network, a Miami-based organization committed to helping women in Cuba become part of civil society. But as she began to weaken and illness began to wear away at her health, Fidel kept insisting.

"That was a source of discord between the two brothers.''

In 1986, Espín became the first woman member of the Cuban Communist Party's Political Buro, developing what Fuentes considers a contradiction between her advocacy for women and membership in the "old boy's club.''

''She would speak at the United Nations about women's rights,'' Fuentes said. "But back home Cuban women could not exercise those rights.''

Miami Herald translator Renato Pérez and staff writer Luisa Yanez contributed to this report.

U.S.: Allow Cubans to vote on Raúl

The United States wants Cuba to agree to an OAS-supervised referendum about whether the island's residents want to be led by Raúl Castro.

By Pablo Bachelet, pbachelet@MiamiHerald.com. Posted on Fri, Sep. 15, 2006.

WASHINGTON - The Bush administration is proposing that the Organization of American States help arrange a referendum for Cubans to decide if they want to be ruled by Raúl Castro, U.S. officials say.

Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez will outline the idea in a speech today at The Miami Herald's Americas Conference being held at the Biltmore Hotel in Coral Gables.

''Let the Cuban people determine their own destiny in a free and fair referendum, in which the OAS could be involved,'' an aide to Gutierrez said, requesting anonymity in keeping with his department's rules.

Gutierrez, a Cuban American, is expected to cite the example of Chile, which in 1988 held a yes-no referendum on whether Gen. Augusto Pinochet should stay in power. The dictator lost that vote.

Cuba's communist government is considered highly unlikely to accept any such referendum. It has never replied to a request for a referendum on democratic changes pushed by Cuban dissident Oswaldo Payá and backed by thousands of signatures from other Cubans.

The Bush administration has said it would launch a diplomatic offensive to put pressure on the Cuban government after the July 31 announcement that Fidel Castro was temporarily handing his leadership responsibilities to his brother Raúl.

U.S. officials believe the 80-year-old Fidel Castro, who is recovering from intestinal surgery, is either too ill to return to power or will do so only in a diminished form. Havana has never explained exactly what ails the man who ruled Cuba for 47 years.

The aide said Gutierrez will reiterate the U.S. position that the United States "will not do business with another dictator, Raúl.''

Washington's referendum proposal comes just after Costa Rican President Oscar Arias, winner of the 1987 Nobel Peace prize for his mediation in the Central American civil wars, made an impassioned plea at the Americas Conference for Latin America to prod Cuba into adopting democratic reforms.

Arias was addressing a dinner gathering Wednesday night to launch the annual gathering. Long stretches of his remarks were dedicated to Cuba.

He said Latin America had to acknowledge that Cuba really is, ''plain and simple, a dictatorship.'' Cubans "deserve the opportunity to choose a destiny for themselves.''

Arias has been critical of Castro before. In an Aug. 29 opinion column in a Costa Rican newspaper, Arias said Castro was ''cut from the same cloth'' as Saddam Hussein and Yugoslavia's Slobodan Milosevic.

But others in Latin America have been quiet on Cuba since Castro's ailment was announced. The region's nations often adhere to the principle of nonintervention in the affairs of other states.

Brazil's ambassador to the OAS, Osmar Chohfi, told The Miami Herald last month that "nothing has happened so far to warrant an OAS intervention.''

''If there is a transition,'' he added, "it is an internal process to Cuba.''

But other, non-U.S. diplomats have been privately discussing whether the OAS, the hemisphere's premier institution dealing with political matters, should become involved in the Cuba issue. Cuba was suspended from the OAS in 1962.

One option would be to have José Miguel Insulza, secretary general of the OAS, quietly begin contacting Cuban officials.

Another speaker at the Americas Conference, John Kavulich, senior policy advisor for the U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council, said that even after Castro dies, Cuba would not change drastically thanks to the massive economic support it is receiving from leftist Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez.

''Venezuela is absolutely the key,'' Kavulich said. "Financially as long as [Chávez] backs Cuba, Cuba doesn't have to change.''

Miami Herald staff writer Jacqueline Charles contributed to this report.

Cubans wary of quick change

Miami Herald Staff Report. Posted on Thu, Sep. 14, 2006.

Omar Martínez earns $11 a month as a government sailor, putting extra food on his family's table by preparing tamales that his wife sells door-to-door.

But while Martínez wishes he could earn more and have a better life, he says he's not ready for Cuba to abandon the island's communist system and its free education and healthcare to move toward a free-market economy.

''We don't earn a lot here, but the free stuff helps offset the low salaries,'' Martínez said. "We have a peaceful life here. I can walk around at night. The kids can play in the street. In the United States, you earn more, but you have to pay more for everything. It's a more stressful life.''

After decades of government propaganda detailing the evils of capitalism and highlighting the achievements of communism, many Cubans like Martínez seem acutely aware of their system's profound shortcomings, yet remain wary of capitalism.

Under harsh controls that punish open critics of the government and ban a free press and opposition political parties, it is difficult for the island's 11 million people to express their true sentiments. In interviews, most decline to give their surnames.

But with Fidel Castro ailing and the Bush administration offering support for a shift toward democracy and open markets, such concerns about capitalism might help explain why the island has remained calm in the wake of Castro's surrender of power to his brother Raúl, at least temporarily, for the first time in 47 years.

'DESIRE FOR CHANGE'

''A lot of Cubans would like to see change, but they don't necessarily want another revolution,'' said Philip Peters, vice president of the Lexington Institute, a Virginia-based think tank. "There's a lot of desire for change, but at the same time, there's fear that they might lose some of the things they have.''

Topping the list, Cubans said, are free healthcare and education, Castro hallmarks that have given the island some of the best education and health statistics in Latin America -- although both have been eroding since the end of Moscow's subsidies.

Cubans also don't pay taxes, unless they are part of the tiny minority allowed to run such small private businesses as home-based beauty parlors or restaurants known as paladares, which can legally have no more than 12 chairs.

A bartender named Ernesto in central Havana expressed his concern about the prospect of capitalism: "What happens if you get sick and don't have health coverage? You could die.''

'SELF-EMPLOYMENT'

To be sure, Cuba does have some measure of capitalism.

After the near-collapse of the economy following the loss of massive Soviet subsidies in the early 1990s, Cuba began allowing so-called ''self-employment,'' such as the paladares and farmers markets where prices are largely set by supply and demand. Privately produced clothes and paintings are now on sale at an open-air market in Old Havana.

But the self-employed Cubans must pay heavy and fixed taxes, even during slow business times, and their number has shrunk significantly over the past 10 years.

With low government wages estimated to cover about a third of a family's expenses per month, many Cubans must hustle -- mostly by pilfering from their workplaces or doing off-the-books work -- to make ends meet.

A man named César said he earns $12 a month working in a government-owned food warehouse. Asked how he can survive on such a low wage, he laughed and replied, "Well, we don't lack for food in my household.''

Antonio Jorge, a professor of economics and international relations at Florida International University, said the experiences in Eastern Europe after the fall of the Berlin Wall might provide a guide for what type of economic system Cubans might favor if given a choice.

The elderly and the less-educated in Eastern Europe proved most resistant to change away from communism, Jorge said, while the younger and better-educated were more willing to embrace the new opportunities to prosper.

FITS PROFILE

Ismael, for example, seems to fit that profile. He's 44 and has an electrical engineering degree from the former Soviet Union but can't find a decent job in his field in Cuba. He manages a store for $14 a month.

''I welcome the opportunities you'd have with a capitalist system,'' he told The Miami Herald. "I have the background and training to do well.''

But other Cubans undoubtedly feel like Georgina, a woman in her 50s who lives in Old Havana, the colonial-era heart of the capital. ''I'm afraid I wouldn't cut it and would be left on the street. Here, the state protects you,'' she said.

CONTROLS MEDIA

Cuba's government-controlled media have reinforced those fears, perennially publishing and broadcasting reports about the poverty in the United States and elsewhere.

''The Cuban media highlights dislocations from capitalism in Latin America: the strikes, the layoffs, the economic turmoil,'' Peters said in a telephone interview.

The years of unremitting propaganda might explain why some Cubans seem incapable of comprehending open economies, let alone grasping their problems and appreciating their benefits.

'INCOME INEQUALITY'

On a recent day, a chiropractor named Vicente blasted capitalism, saying, "People go hungry in the United States, and there's great income inequality.''

But he then mentioned that he has a brother in New York who emigrated in 1980 and now owns a trucking company. The brother sends Vicente $100 a month -- making him part of the estimated 30 percent of the island's population that receives cash remittances from relatives and friends abroad.

So how does Vicente square his stated preference for the communist system with his benefiting from the remittances sent by his capitalist brother?

''He doesn't get his money from capitalism,'' Vicente said. "He gets it because he works hard.''

Government propaganda has also exploited the fear that capitalism would allow exiles to recover homes seized by the government and then turned over to other Cubans.

''Cubans are terrified that their homes will be taken away by exiles when they come back,'' said Carmelo Mesa-Lago, a retired economics professor from the University of Pittsburgh. "Housing conditions may be terrible, but this is all they have.''

In that same vein, a visitor might be taken aback at the meager lifestyle visible in Cuba -- the shortage of modern cars and many foodstuffs, the lack of air conditioning despite stifling heat or the kids playing baseball in the streets with a bottle cap and broomstick.

'BASICS IN CUBA'

But many Cubans say they appreciate the simple life of knowing their neighbors and knowing that neighbors sitting on their doorsteps can keep an eye on their children playing in the car-free streets.

''You get the basics in Cuba,'' Paolo Spadoni, a visiting assistant professor at Rollins College in Central Florida, said in a telephone interview.

''Sometimes you tend to value what you have because it's what you can count on,'' Spadoni said.

U.S. firms redraw a Cuba without Castro

By Jacqueline Charles. jcharles@MiamiHerald.com. Posted on Thu, Sep. 14, 2006

While Cuban leader Fidel Castro's recent illness peaked the interest of major U.S. firms, which once had grandiose dreams of investing in a free Cuba, they are not rushing to return to the drawing board of the 1990s, a leading Cuba expert said earlier today.

Speaking at the Miami Herald's annual America's Conference, John Kavulich, senior policy advisor, U.S. Cuba Trade & Economic Council, said even if Castro were to die, life in Cuba would not change drastically thanks to the Cuban government's relationship with Venezuela.

''Venezuela is absolutely the key,'' Kavulich said during discussion moderated by Miami Herald Chief of Correspondents Juan Tamayo, who formerly covered Cuba. "Financially as long as (Chávez) backs Cuba, Cuba doesn't have to change.''

Kavulich said between 1994 and 2002, major U.S. firms created Cuba teams, which reported directly to the CEOs, to explore business opportunities on the island. But after Cuba signed agreements with Venezuela and China, and the Bush administration hardened its policy toward the Castro government, these companies lost interest and began to look elsewhere.

''That permitted the (Cuban) government to return to its roots and reverse economic reforms of the early '90s,'' Kavulich said of Cuba's newfound alliances with Venezuela and China.

However, the scenario could change if Venezuela were to cut Cuba off or if the island were to develop its own energy source, making it much more financially independent.

U.S. creates five groups to monitor Cuba

The Bush administration mobilized five new government groups to track events in Cuba after leader Fidel Castro's ceding of power on July 31.

By Pablo Bachelet, pbachelet@MiamiHerald.com. Posted on Wed, Sep. 13, 2006

* Audio | Interview with Eric Watnik, State Department spokesman on Cuba
* On the Web | Audio briefing by assistant secretary of state Thomas Shannon

WASHINGTON - Convinced that Fidel Castro will never regain the power he once wielded, the Bush administration has created five interagency working groups to monitor Cuba and carry out U.S. policies.

The groups, some of which operate in a war-room-like setting, were quietly set up after the July 31 announcement that the ailing Cuban leader had temporarily ceded power to a collective leadership headed by his brother Raúl, U.S. officials have told The Miami Herald.

Their composition reflects both the administration's Cuban policy priorities as well as the belief that the 80-year-old Castro's status as the island's undisputed leader is finished, regardless of the nature of his still-mysterious ailment.

Thomas Shannon, U.S. assistant secretary of state for the Western Hemisphere, said last month that Castro ''does not appear'' to be in a position to return to day-to-day management.

Eric Watnik, a State Department spokesman on Cuban issues, went further, telling The Miami Herald that Castro ''will never come back to the position that he previously enjoyed.'' He declined to detail any evidence the U.S. government has for such a belief.

U.S. officials say three of the newly created groups are headed by the State Department: diplomatic actions; strategic communications and democratic promotion. Another that coordinated humanitarian aid to Cuba is run by the Commerce Department, and a fifth, on migration issues, is run jointly by the National Security Council and the Department of Homeland Security.

Many members of the groups work out of the same State Department office in what one person familiar with the operation described as a "control room.''

The State Department is reluctant to give details of the new interagency groups, saying the focus should be on the democratic transition the groups are trying to achieve in Cuba rather than on the U.S. government process.

But the overall idea is to exchange views with other governments and create a common external front as Cuba begins its post-Castro transition, said U.S. officials who asked for anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the issues.

Officials portrayed the working groups as logical outcomes of the Commission on Assistance to a Free Cuba, an interagency Cabinet-level effort that has been convened twice to draft policy recommendations. The second commission report, co-chaired by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez, was issued in July, just weeks before Castro underwent surgery for intestinal bleeding caused by a still undisclosed ailment.

It recommended more aid to Castro opponents, a diplomatic campaign to offset Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez's alleged efforts to prolong communism in Cuba, and stricter enforcement of existing sanctions. It also recommended more coordination between government agencies.

The establishment of the new interagency working groups came around the same time as the intelligence community was also bolstering its monitoring of Cuba. Last month, U.S. Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte appointed CIA veteran Patrick Maher as acting mission manager for Cuba and Venezuela. Officials say the post had been planned before the announcement of Castro's illness.

HIGH-LEVEL POST

The position is considered ''very high level,'' according to Brian Latell, a retired CIA analyst on Cuba and author of a recent book on Fidel and Raúl Castro, After Fidel.

Such mission managers usually oversee a staff of between four and six people that culls intelligence information on the target countries. Though the post is essentially one of coordination, the manager is also expected to ''be an activist'' to stimulate better information gathering from the different branches of the intelligence services, Latell said.

The creation of the post also underlined the national security importance of Cuba and Venezuela. Only Iran and North Korea -- both perceived as nuclear threats -- currently have similar U.S. mission managers overseeing them. Three other managers oversee counterterrorism, counterintelligence and counterproliferation.

The Bush administration's policy on Cuba has been straightforward: pressure Havana to adopt democratic reforms through a combination of economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation.

But when specific options are discussed, Cuba has often turned out to be divisive.

The Department of Defense, for instance, has balked at acting too aggressively for fear of igniting a crisis in the U.S. back yard at a time when U.S. forces already are stretched thin by the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Mauricio Claver-Carone, who heads the U.S.-Cuba Democracy Political Action Committee in Washington, which lobbies Congress for tougher sanctions on the island, says democratic change in Cuba should ''supersede perceived instability'' concerns.

He said that the State Department and the White House are committed to ''democracy above all options,'' while Homeland Security and the Pentagon are "ambivalent to drastic change in Cuba.''

MARTI BROADCASTS

Another example is an effort to ease the restriction requiring the U.S. airplanes that broadcast Radio and TV Martí to Cuba to remain within U.S. territorial airspace -- a measure that limits its ability to get around Cuban jamming.

Some Cuban-American activists have long advocated allowing the aircraft to wander into international airspace despite concerns about violating international broadcasting regulations. But the Cuban government considers all Martí broadcasts provocations that violate international law.

Miami Republican Rep. Lincoln Díaz-Balart told The Miami Herald in an interview earlier this year that the aircraft "should be able to fly from wherever it has to fly so that the signal can't be jammed.''

THE FIVE GROUPS

The Bush administration has created five interagency working groups to manage U.S. policies toward Cuba:

o Diplomatic actions: Aims to build international support for U.S. policies.

o Humanitarian aid: Intended for Cuba if and when it is requested by a transition government in Havana.

o Migration: Headed jointly by the National Security Council and the Department of Homeland Security.

o Strategic communications: Seeks to ensure that Cubans understand U.S. positions.

o Democratic promotion: The centerpiece of U.S. policy on Cuba.

Exile group plans protest off Cuba's coast

Cuban exile group promises to stage a 'maritime demonstration' off Cuba's coast during the summit of Unaligned Movement taking place this week in Havana.

By Luisa Yanez. lyanez@MiamiHerald.com. Posted on Wed, Sep. 13, 2006.

A Miami exile leader on Tuesday announced plans for a symbolic demonstration in the waters off Cuba this weekend.

The reason: to have the group's call for democracy on the island heard by foreign leaders representing as many as 116 nations that comprise the Nonaligned Movement, which is holding a weeklong summit in Havana.

''We are asking for free elections in Cuba, not a succession of power from brother to brother as if Cuba were a dynasty,'' said Rámon Saúl Sánchez, head of the Democracy Movement, referring to Fidel Castro temporarily handing over power to his brother, Raúl.

The summit in Cuba is being held two months after it was announced that President Fidel Castro, 80, had undergone emergency surgery for an undisclosed intestinal ailment and had provisionally handed over power to his younger brother, Defense Minister Raúl Castro.

ATTRACTING ATTENTION

The group is staging its ''maritime demonstration'' to attract the attention of leaders from mostly developing nations attending this week's 14th annual summit of the Nonaligned Movement, which ends Saturday night. Among the countries represented are Venezuela, Iran, Bolivia, Yugoslavia and Malaysia.

At a morning press conference in Miami, Sánchez said the group's yacht, the 39-foot Democracia, will leave from Key West's Municipal Marina after midnight Friday and head toward the 12-mile limit of what Cuba considers its territorial waters.

The Democracia, which would arrive at its destination by around 10 a.m. Saturday, will ferry electoral ballots, fly a white flag, display giant posters of Cuba's political prisoners and drop white roses on the water. Mirrors will be flashed toward the island. About 20 people will be on board.

Sánchez said each leader attending the summit will receive a document containing the group's demands for Cuba's future on behalf of both Miami's exile community and Cuba's dissident movement. He would not elaborate on how the documents would be delivered.

Among the demands: free elections, the release of all political prisoners, government legalization of the opposition movement and the reunification of families, which includes allowing all Cubans to visit their homeland.

Sánchez said he hopes the U.S. government will not try to stop the ''one-boat flotilla'' Saturday.

Small, private vessels are required to obtain permits from the U.S. Coast Guard if they intend to leave Florida headed for Cuban waters, according to a 1996 presidential proclamation. Violators face incarceration, fines or the confiscation of vessels. ''We hope President Bush does not try to stop the activities we are announcing here today,'' Sánchez said. "It is our duty to encourage elements of change inside Cuba.''

Sánchez, who staged his first flotilla in 1995, said this time they are taking only one vessel to discourage the Cuban government from committing ''a barbaric act'' against the group by claiming vessels from the United States were approaching the coastline.

''One boat, flying a white flag, is not very offensive,'' he said. Also, in the event the State Department asks the Coast Guard to stop the group, only the Democracia would be seized.

COAST GUARD NOTIFIED

Sánchez said he has notified local Coast Guard officials of the group's plan.

''We can't speculate of what was said at a press conference,'' said Coast Guard Petty Officer Jennifer Johnson. "All we can say it that we encourage anyone taking a long trip to file a float plan and carry proper emergency and safety equipment.''

It's still unclear whether Fidel Castro will host a dinner for all the foreign leaders on Friday. If he does, it will mark his first public appearance since his surgery was announced July 31.

Cubans relive journey to freedom

Two Cubans who made headlines by trying to defect in Africa are back in South Florida, working and living the Miami dream

By Elaine De Valle, edevalle@MiamiHerald.com. Posted on Wed, Sep. 13, 2006.

The Highlands at Kendall is about 8,000 miles from the capital of Zimbabwe.

The two-story, suburban house with the shimmering pool, granite kitchen and new sports car in the driveway may as well be on another planet.

And though it has been six years since the two Cubans who live there were dragged from their beds by Zimbabwean soldiers and jailed for 32 days, Noris Peña and Leonel Córdova still relive the nights on a cold floor in a dark prison cell in Africa.

As they build their own version of the American Dream in a West Kendall community of comfortable cookie-cutter homes, the dentist and the doctor -- who recently got a job with Baptist Hospital's urgent care center network -- still sometimes fear they will wake up back in the living nightmare in Harare.

''Everything has happened so fast and we've been so busy,'' Peña said. "We were telling our friends the whole story the other day, because many of them have not heard the whole story, and it seemed like yesterday.''

Their story starts in May 2000, when the two members of one of Cuba's famed medical missions -- he's a physician, she's a dentist -- requested political asylum from the United Nations in Zimbabwe.

The next day, in an interview in an African newspaper, they denounced Fidel Castro in a story picked up by international wires.

''I didn't just want to jump the border like so many people do,'' Córdova said. "I wanted to expose Cuba's medical missions for what they were. It was a lie. We didn't go to give medical help to the people. It was an election time [in Zimbabwe], and Fidel sent us there to help his friend.''

Days later, and hours before a U.N. asylum interview, they were abducted at 4:17 a.m. at machine-gun point in their pajamas and taken by military jeep to an immigration office.

Eight hours later, they were taken to Harare International Airport -- where they were met by the Cuban ambassador, the Cuban consul and the chief of the Cuban medical mission -- and flown to Johannesburg, South Africa, to get on a Paris-bound jet with a Havana connection.

In the plane's bathroom, Córdova wrote a desperate note and slipped it to a flight attendant. ''Kidnappeds'' it said in big, black letters. "Please, we are very concerned about our lives.''

He also threatened to kill someone on board after a South African guard told him it was the only way to get off the flight, he said.

It worked: When they changed planes, the pilot of the Paris-bound jet refused to board the pair.

They were taken back to Harare and imprisoned -- but nobody knew it for about two weeks. U.N. officials, who had said the two Cubans were protected refugees, tried to negotiate access, but Zimbabwean officials claimed no knowledge of their whereabouts.

'TORTURE' IN PRISON

''It was psychological torture,'' Peña says of the month they spent being shuffled between two prisons.

''Every five minutes they would come and ask questions,'' Córdova said, "try to pressure us to go to Cuba. They wanted me to sign something that said we had left the prison and went to cross the border on our own. Sure. Like I'm going to do that.

'I knew we would 'disappear' if we did,'' he said, making quotation marks in the air.

For 32 days, Peña and Córdova weren't allowed to bathe or brush their teeth. They had only the clothes on their backs.

''After a while, the guards would take pity on us and help us. One gave us a pair of socks,'' she said.

Eventually, through international pressure, they were released to Sweden. One month later, they were in Miami, where Córdova had friends and Peña had family.

They were given the key to the city and testified at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearings that fall. They wasted no time getting their lives back on track with English classes and jobs in their fields.

When the twosome were invited to the University of Miami by U.S. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen -- the Miami Republican who led the effort to have them allowed into the United States -- they met Andrés Gómez, then dean of international studies. He offered them temporary student housing and meals while they took UM's three-month intensive English course.

''Everything else they did on their own. I saw them, and these people studied seven days a week. They were adamant,'' said Gómez, now a scholar at UM's Institute of Cuban Studies.

Mercy Hospital offered Córdova a symbolic, one-hour-a-day position that turned into more and more hours in the emergency room.

A friend of Peña's got her a job in Atlanta as a dental assistant, and the two were on their way to semi-anonymous lives as regular working exiles.

They made headlines again about a year later when Córdova's wife -- who, along with their two children, was granted a U.S. visa but denied exit by the Cuban government -- was killed in Havana in a motorcycle accident.

His young children -- daughter Giselle and stepson Yusniel -- arrived in Miami two weeks later in September 2001. Peña left Atlanta for Miami to help Córdova.

That December, the two -- who had until then denied rumors of romance -- wed.

''There was always attraction and many things in common,'' said Córdova, who admits he was drawn to Peña in Africa once he realized they had the same dreams and distaste for the Cuban regime.

"But I always told her that my intention was to bring my family here. I never meant to leave my wife.''

Soon after, Córdova took his U.S. medical licensing exams -- and passed.

He did his residency in pediatrics at New York's Lincoln Medical Center. Their schedules were hectic. They never went to the top of the Empire State Building. They never visited the Statue of Liberty.

But they always planned to return to Miami. Córdova kept his 786 area code cellphone all three years in New York.

''This is where our friends were, where we had our climate, our arroz con frijoles and maduros,'' he said.

"This is my home now.''

Córdova has a new job he loves at one of Baptist Hospital's urgent care centers. Peña -- who took Córdova's name -- is still trying to get her dentist's license. She has passed the board exams, but needs to go to school for a couple of years and has applied at Nova Southeastern University.

PARENTS ARRIVE

It will be easier for her to attend classes now that her parents -- who have had U.S. visas for six years -- finally arrived in June and can care for the children after school.

Yusniel, now 17, is a sophomore at Felix Varela High School and works part time at an auto parts store. Giselle, 10, is in the fourth grade.

The couple and Giselle became U.S. citizens in April. Yusniel must wait until he is 18. The family could not get authorization from his birth father in Cuba.

Córdova says his dreams are coming true, though one still eludes him: to return one day to a free Cuba.

''I want to work and invest and help with the development of the healthcare system,'' Córdova said, adding that with recent news of Fidel Castro's poor health, that day is coming sooner rather than later.

''I calculate that in two years I will be in Cuba,'' Córdova said.

"But that won't be the end of the story.''

Raúl Castro may have to lighten up

Experts said Raúl Castro may be forced to open up Cuba's economy if he hopes to stay in power.

Miami Herald Staff Report. Posted on Wed, Sep. 13, 2006

HAVANA - For an engineer named Ismael, Cuban leader Fidel Castro is ''charismatic and super-intelligent.'' But he doesn't feel the same way about Fidel's brother and designated successor, Raúl Castro.

''He's too hard-line,'' said Ismael, in the kind of comment about Raúl made repeatedly by Cubans approached on the streets of Havana. "He's surrounded by hard-liners. I met him once. He seemed very serious.''

Raúl's lack of affection among Cubans, after 47 years of playing the tough cop for his older brother, may well hamper his ability to govern and could force him to open up the communist-ruled island's economy after Fidel dies, said several analysts who have followed his career.

''Raúl has to establish a new basis of legitimacy,'' Frank Mora, a professor of national security strategy at the U.S. National War College in Washington said by telephone. "He can't govern like Fidel. Fidel has a unique, personal and charismatic style that no one else can match.

"Raúl doesn't have those skills. But he knows that he needs to meet the expectations of pent-up demand. People will not make political demands if they have economic progress.''

The 80-year-old Fidel Castro ceded power to his brother, five years younger and Cuba's defense minister for four decades, on July 31 after undergoing emergency surgery for internal bleeding from a still unexplained ailment.

Raúl Castro's public appearances and statements since then have been few, although he is expected to take center stage for the first time ever by filling in for his brother at the Non-Aligned Summit of 116 nations that began Monday in Havana.

Until now, Raúl Castro has been content to operate in his brother's shadow. He earned a reputation as a hard-liner in the early days of the revolution by overseeing the execution of soldiers and followers of the deposed dictator, Fulgencio Batista. Fidel Castro, in an oft-quoted 1959 comment, said his brother was more radical than he was.

FAITHFUL FOLLOWER

Indeed, during the first 30 years of the Cuban Revolution, Raúl Castro seemed to be a faithful follower of Soviet dogma and occasionally warned his brother publicly against taking a softer economic or political line.

All of that might explain why Cubans recently interviewed on the streets of Havana consistently said they held negative views of Raúl.

''People don't like him. They think he's too warlike,'' a school custodian named Mario said as he stood in the doorway of the colonial-era Old Havana neighborhood. "I'm afraid that the Bush administration will say something that will provoke him.''

''Raúl wants to show that he's in charge. But he doesn't have Fidel's charisma,'' said a man who gave his name only as Alberto.

''Raúl is crazy. He's crazier than Fidel,'' said 20-year-old Reinier, who served two years in the military.

Raúl Castro actually has become more flexible in recent years, although public opinion of him remains unchanged, said Brian Latell, a retired CIA Cuba specialist and author of the recently published book, After Fidel.

'ADVOCATE OF REFORM'

Since 1990, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, ''he's been an advocate of reform,'' said Latell. "He's the only top-level Cuban official who has had success in implementing change, within the military.''

Latell added that it was Raúl who pushed Fidel, after Cuba's loss of massive Soviet subsidies, to allow the opening of markets where farmers can sell some of their products at prices set by supply and demand, and other small enterprises like privately run restaurants.

Fidel Castro retrenched on some of those changes in recent years, but Raúl meanwhile has put many of his military officers to work managing a slew of government agencies, most of them in the tourism sector, as if they were private enterprises.

''Public perception has not caught up with the changing reality of Raúl,'' Latell said.

Eugenio Yañez, who taught economics to high-level Cuban government officials before defecting in 1993, said the low public esteem of Raúl matters little, given Cuba's highly effective and harsh domestic security system.

Yañez said he does not expect Raúl to make populist gestures aimed at boosting his public approval, as a politician facing elections in a democracy might do.

''To be popular, Raúl doesn't need to take populist actions,'' Yañez said in a telephone interview. "He needs to provide more food, transportation and housing. Because he is not as popular as Fidel, he cannot ask for trust and support in exchange for nothing.

"He would make changes not because he believes in liberty or democracy, but because he needs to improve the lives of people to avoid a social explosion. Without changes, his power could be in jeopardy.''

Castro says worst is behind him, but he still faces a 'prolonged' recovery

By Frances Robles. frobles@MiamiHerald.com. Posted on Tue, Sep. 05, 2006

* Text of 'Message from Fidel to the people of Cuba,' published Sept. 5 in the Cuban daily Granma
* Video | Chavez: 'Castro's most critical moments behind'

Cuban leader Fidel Castro says the worst of his health crisis is behind him, although he lost 41 pounds in the 34 days since he fell ill and still faces a ''prolonged'' recovery.

''It can be affirmed that the most critical moment has been left behind,'' Castro said in a statement published in today's issue of the Cuban Communist Party's Granma newspaper. "Today, I recover at a satisfactory pace.''

Castro temporarily ceded power to his brother Raúl on July 31, saying he had surgery for an unspecified intestinal illness that caused sustained bleeding. The state of his health has been reserved as a state secret, fueling rumors that he suffers from a variety of diseases, including cancer.

In his statement, he asked for the Cuban people not to blame anyone for the secrecy that he asked government leaders to observe.

The statement was accompanied by a series of photos showing a slimmer pajama-clad Castro reading and writing. Castro appears in the shots wearing two different sets of pajamas, one dark blue, another light. Only one shows a full-length image, showing him wearing slippers and reading in a rocking chair.

In one photo, Castro holds up what appears to be a proof of the book One Hundred Hours With Fidel written by Ignacio Ramonet. Castro promises the book will be published soon. However, the book was launched in April in Spain, and came under criticism when some of the words from alleged interviews turned out to have been taken verbatim from Castro speeches.

Castro also says he recently had his last surgical stitch removed, and expects to be receiving visitors soon. Cuba is hosting the Non Aligned Movement summit next week.

''At this moment, I am not in any hurry, and no one should hurry,'' he wrote. "The country marches on well and moves ahead.''

Castro's health not top topic at U.S. base

U.S. military men and women at Guantánamo worry more about the Middle East than Cuba even after the recent transition from Fidel to Raúl Castro.

By Noah Bierman, nbierman@MiamiHerald.com. Posted on Tue, Sep. 05, 2006

GUANTANAMO BAY NAVAL BASE, Cuba -- Try ordering a mojito at the ''Cuban Club'' here and the waitress offers a curious stare.

This U.S. base sits on Cuban soil, but far from the island's mind-set.

When Fidel Castro handed power to his brother Raúl on July 31, there was far more commotion in Miami than here. ''From our perspective, it was business as usual throughout the whole thing,'' said Navy Capt. Mark Leary, base commander.

The sharp political rhetoric between Washington and Havana, including allegations of Cuban government harassment of the U.S. Interests Section in the Cuban capital, does not resonate at Guantánamo. Leary holds a monthly meeting with his Cuban counterpart -- an orderly ritual that has gone on for about a decade as a way of ensuring that the 17.4-mile fenced border remains calm.

At the most recent meeting with Cuban Navy Capt. Pedro Román Cisneros last month, ''there was nothing brought up about Castro's health or anything like that,'' Leary said.

''I thought if it was going to be brought up, it was going to be brought up by the Cubans,'' Leary said.

It wasn't. Instead, the military men followed their typical ''very pragmatic, very practical'' dialogue about issues like construction projects near the fence.

A few weeks earlier, the two nations' militaries held their annual joint mass-casualty fire drill. Helicopters from Cuba put out fires on the American side, and U.S. doctors simulated medical responses on the Cuban side of the northeast gate, which separates the U.S. base from the rest of Cuba.

The U.S. Navy's post-Castro immigration-control plan was not altered by the news about the power changeover either, Leary said.

''We had actually been reviewing it,'' he said. "It's continually reviewed.''

U.S. soldiers were scheduling an organized run along the border, one of the rare instances when they give the communist portion of the island much consideration.

The northeast gate doesn't offer much distinction -- a few guard towers, an empty office, flags and lots of unkempt greenery. The base keeps its garbage at a nearby dump, so a flock of turkey vultures is never far. The only note of provocation is a sign on the Cuban guardhouse, in large black letters in Spanish: "Republic of Cuba, free territory of America.''

Indeed, Cuba seems a lot farther from here than the Middle East.

''I think it's in the back of people's minds,'' said Lacy Hicks, a Petty Officer 1st Class in the Navy who has been writing for The Wire, a community newspaper for soldiers. "Does it affect our mission? I don't think so.''

Television sets in military mess halls hum cable news, alternating American crime stories with updates from Lebanon. Copies of the newspaper Stars and Stripes carry headlines about the troops in Iraq, where many soldiers have friends deployed or have been fighting themselves.

When Fidel Castro ceded power, one army captain on the base said he took bets on the chances that the strongman was dead. Ordinary U.S. soldiers considered the prospect of an open Cuba as mainly a place to go party, said Jim Morales, a security consultant based at Guantánamo.

''They're here, isolated on the base, with nowhere to go,'' Morales said.

Of course, that hasn't always been the case. The United States has operated the base since 1903, when a lease was signed. Now, many of the 7,500 military and civilian workers are doing jobs related to the detention of about 450 men captured by U.S. troops in Afghanistan, Pakistan and elsewhere.

In the mid-1990s, the mission was different. The base held thousands of Cuban migrants interdicted at sea by the Coast Guard.

Now, at least 50 Cuban refugees are held at the migrant operations center, on the ''slow'' side of the island. Some work as bag boys at the military commissary, but they cannot move around, socialize freely or buy alcohol. Leary said he is trying to increase their entertainment options.

''It's pretty restrictive,'' he said.

"Message from Fidel to the people of Cuba"

Posted on Tue, Sep. 05, 2006.

Text of "Message from Fidel to the people of Cuba," published Sept. 5 in the Cuban daily Granma, translated by The Miami Herald

Dear compatriots:

In recent days, some film images and several photographs were published, which I know much pleased our people.

Some opined, with reason, that I looked a little thin, as the only unfavorable element. I am very glad that they perceived it. This allows me to send you several more recent photos and, at the same time, to inform you that in a few days I lost 41 pounds. I add that very recently [the doctors] removed the last surgical stitch, after 34 days of convalescence.

Not on a single day, even on the most difficult ones since July 26, did I fail to make an effort to rectify the adverse political consequences of such unexpected health problem. The result is that, to my relief, I moved forward on several important issues. I can tell you that the book "One Hundred Hours With Fidel," by [Ignacio] Ramonet -- in which, during the days I was ill, I reviewed in detail every answer I gave -- is practically finished and will be published soon, as I promised you. That did not keep me from strictly performing my duties as a disciplined patient.

It can be affirmed that the most critical moment has been left behind. Today, I recover at a satisfactory pace. In the next several days, I shall be welcoming distinguished visitors; that does not mean that each activity will be immediately accompanied by film or photographic images, although the news of each event will always be presented. We all must understand that it is not convenient to systematically present information or offer images about the state of my health. We all must also understand, with realism, that the duration of a complete recovery, whether we want it or not, will be prolonged.

At this moment, I am not in any hurry, and no one should hurry. The country marches on well and moves ahead.

Today began the School Year, with more students and perspectives than in any other moment for our country. What a marvelous event!

One detail remains: to ask each of the honest compatriots who together constitute the immense majority of our people not to blame anyone for the discretion that, for the sake of the security of our Homeland and our Revolution, I asked everyone to observe. Infinite thanks!

/signed/ Fidel Castro Ruz

Hispanic jurors called key to Castro foes' fate

The high-stakes weapons case against two anti-Castro activists will likely boil down to who sits on the federal jury in the Fort Lauderdale trial set for next week.

By Jay Weaver. jweaver@MiamiHerald.com. Posted on Mon, Sep. 04, 2006

When two anti-Castro activists were arrested on weapons charges in Miami, federal prosecutors filed the indictment in Fort Lauderdale -- seen as an ''insult'' by the pair's supporters.

The legal team for Santiago Alvarez and Osvaldo Mitat tried in vain to move the case back to Miami, arguing it was the only way the Cuban exiles could get a fair jury trial.

As the Sept. 12 trial approaches, their attorneys have come up with a new tactic: Allow Miami-Dade residents to sit alongside Broward residents in the jury pool so that some Cuban Americans might be selected.

It's legal, but it may be a long shot.

And it points to the sensitive issue of choosing jurors in the bordering counties for federal trials in which race or ethnicity can make the difference between a verdict of guilt or innocence.

A longtime jury consultant said the stakes over who sits on the 12-person jury couldn't be higher. Both Miami men, 64, face up to 20 years in prison if convicted -- though there's an outside chance they might cut plea deals at the last minute for far lesser sentences.

''The question is, are these guys terrorists or heroes? In Miami-Dade, they're going to be viewed as heroes,'' said Amy Singer, a South Florida psychologist who heads Trial Consultants, Inc.

DIFFERENT VIEWS

''In Miami-Dade, the defendants have a good chance of being found not guilty,'' she said. "In Fort Lauderdale, the jury might actually listen to the facts of the case. There are a lot of Hispanics in Fort Lauderdale, but it's still heavily Anglo. There's more of an anti-bilingual, anti-Hispanic flavor in Fort Lauderdale.''

Prosecutors flatly oppose the defense proposal, saying it's an attempt to get around the judge's earlier decision to deny moving the case to Miami. Their plan ''is not constitutionally sound, fundamentally fair, or consistent with the Southern District's random jury selection plan,'' prosecutors Jacqueline Arango and Randy Hummel wrote in court papers.

Now, the divisive issue must be answered by presiding U.S. District Judge James Cohn.

Normally, federal jurors are selected from the immediate area where a crime was charged, but a judge can make an exception in a large regional district such as South Florida to protect a defendant's right to a fair trial by a jury of his peers.

It's so rare, however, that lawyers for Alvarez and Mitat cited a case in Tennessee to make their point.

Their attorneys argue that the strikingly different demographics between Miami-Dade and Broward counties should compel Cohn to allow a two-county jury.

Citing 2004 Census Bureau numbers, about one out of three prospective jurors are likely to be Cuban American in Miami-Dade. The number rises to one out of 25 in Broward, according to an analysis by Florida International University professor Kevin Hill.

In court papers, the defendants' lawyers Kendall Coffey and Ben Kuehne wrote: "With Broward's noticeable absence of a sizable Cuban-American population, drawing from a jury [pool] that includes Miami-Dade jurors will promote a fair trial and ensure the jury is appropriately reflective of the community.''

Last December, Alvarez and Mitat pleaded not guilty to weapons charges -- including illegal possession of machine guns, rifles and silencers with obliterated serial numbers -- in a Miami federal court.

Chanting ''¡Libertad!'' on the Miami courthouse steps, dozens of the men's supporters denounced their prosecution in Fort Lauderdale, where a grand jury indicted them on charges of storing illegal firearms in a Broward apartment complex that belonged to Alvarez, a wealthy developer.

U.S. government agents first learned about Alvarez in May 2005 when he helped Cuban exile militant Luis Posada Carriles emerge from hiding before his arrest for entering the country illegally. Posada is still in federal custody in Texas.

The charges filed against Alvarez and Mitat are unrelated to Posada's past anti-Castro activities, but prosecutors plan to introduce trial evidence showing Alvarez and Mitat "have been involved in planning and staging insurgent paramilitary operations against Cuba.''

Their supporters argue that the two men should be tried in Miami federal court. They say U.S. agents arrested the men in Miami and seized almost all of the nine firearms cited in the indictment in Miami-Dade. A government informant identified as Gilberto Abascal allegedly transported the weapons from the Broward apartment complex to Mitat in Miami. The supporters claim Abascal is a spy for the Castro government and the FBI.

'AN INSULT'

''The reason why they are taking this case outside Miami is because they don't want our community to be able to render justice,'' said Francisco ''Pepe'' Hernandez, president of the Cuban American National Foundation. "To me and the rest of the community -- not just the Cuban community -- this is an insult.''

Hernandez also said the U.S. attorney's office is trying to appear tough on Alvarez and Mitat because the Bush administration doesn't want the exile community to be involved in Cuba's internal affairs. He added that since President Bush and Gov. Jeb Bush are not up for reelection, the U.S. attorney's office is ignoring the Cuban exile community's stand on the weapons case because the Bush brothers don't need its political support this year.

During an interview last fall, U.S. Attorney R. Alexander Acosta said his office, as always, was taking an ''apolitical'' approach to the case, stressing that the seized weaponry was extremely dangerous and initially stashed in Broward.

On Friday, Acosta, of Cuban descent, declined to comment further.

The U.S. attorney's office has straddled this legal fault line before. In 2000, prosecutors blocked a bid by attorneys for five Cubans charged with spying for Castro's government to have their case moved outside of Miami-Dade. The defense argued that the men could not receive a fair trial because of anti-Castro sentiment and pretrial publicity.

But last month, an appellate court in Atlanta ruled that these issues did not compromise their right to a fair jury trial in Miami.

''Miami-Dade County is a widely diverse, multiracial community of more than two million people,'' the 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals said in a 10-2 decision. "Nothing in the trial record suggests that 12 fair and impartial jurors could not be assembled by the trial judge to try the defendants impartially and fairly.''

Acosta said his office was ''gratified'' with the ruling, citing U.S. District Judge Joan Lenard's impaneling of an unbiased jury. That jury did not include any Cuban Americans.

Yet in a separate civil case in 2002, prosecutors took the opposite approach. They sought to move the civil rights trial of a Hispanic immigration agent out of Miami-Dade because of antigovernment sentiment that was still spilling over from the U.S. seizure of Cuban boy Elián González from his Miami relatives in 2000.

The U.S. attorney's office asked a Miami federal judge to relocate the trial of agent Ricardo Ramirez, saying the government couldn't get a ''fair trial'' in Miami-Dade. Ramirez, who participated in the seizure, had claimed that the government discriminated against him after he publicly stated his concerns about anti-Cuban bias at the immigration agency.

U.S. District Judge Paul Huck granted the request to move the case outside South Florida, but it was settled before trial.

March echoes a cry out of Cuba

One local social justice group dons white to garner attention for political prisoners and dissidents in Cuba.

By Breanne Gilpatrick, bgilpatrick@MiamiHerald.com. Posted on Mon, Sep. 04, 2006

They gathered on the steps of La Ermita de la Caridad shrine and began to walk in silence. They wore white from head to toe. In one hand they carried white gladiolas. In the other, umbrellas.

About 10 women from Women for Human Rights International wanted their one-mile walk to Bayshore Drive to resemble the weekly walks of Las Damas de Blanco. Every Sunday, since 2003, Las Damas de Blanco have attended Mass at the Santa Rita church in Havana's Miramar neighborhood. After the service they walk peacefully through the streets, flowers in hand, displaying photos of loved ones languishing in Cuban prisons for dissenting with the country's totalitarian regime.

During Sunday's ''Walk for Dignity & Freedom,'' in Coconut Grove, Women For Human Rights International joined Las Damas de Blanco, or The Ladies in White, in calling for provisional Cuban President Raúl Castro's unconditional release of the country's political prisoners. On July 31, Raúl's brother Fidel temporarily ceded power to Raúl while he recovers from surgery.

Women For Human Rights International was founded in Miami in 1988 to fight for social justice around the world.

Like Las Damas de Blanco, the group hopes national and international communities will urge the Cuban government to grant amnesty to political prisoners. Organizers hope Sunday's walk will be the first of many solidarity walks to be held at least once a month, said Mariví Prado, president of Women for Human Rights International. The next walk will begin in downtown Miami, at a date yet to be announced, said Prado, who also is a founding member of the group.

''We just want to show them that in respect to solidarity we want to do the same act they're doing on Sunday,'' she said. "We may not be able to do it every Sunday, but we want to do it at least once a month.

The timing of the walk ties in with the recent leadership change in Cuba. And the group wants the focus of the walk to be on the women in Cuba as much as on the political prisoners they're walking for, said Ana Maria Ferradaz.

''In a way we are marching for them as well,'' said Ferradaz, 25. "Not only for their dissident husbands, but for their own rights.''

And Prado explained that the purpose of Sunday's walk wasn't limited to solidarity and the release of political prisoners. It also was intended to draw attention to a broader feminist agenda in Cuba.

''We want to attract attention with this solidarity walk to the risks and danger that these women are facing,'' Prado said. "But then going beyond Las Damas de Blanco. . . we seek to tell the world the truth about the lack of a feminist agenda in Cuba.''

Sunday's steady rain could not deter some walkers.

''Those women are very brave to be doing what they do,'' said 33-year-old Babelyn González, wearing a white sundress. "And if there's anything we can do to show our support, we're going to do it, even if it means walking in the rain.''

The group feels it's important to highlight the work of Las Damas de Blanco as a way to publicize their efforts, Prado said.

''They're under a lot of harassment and threats and yet they seem to be invincible,'' she said.

Cuban transition makes no waves

A month after Fidel Castro stepped aside, nothing in Cuba seems to have changed.

By Nancy San Martin, nsanmartin@MiamiHerald.com. Posted on Thu, Aug. 31, 2006

One month to the day after Fidel Castro ceded power to his younger brother, Raúl, Cuba appears to be much like a plane on autopilot with no final destination.

There has been no visible indication of political change on the communist-ruled island, no visible increase in rule by Raúl, no apparent change in the machinery of government. There have been no stepped-up challenges by dissidents or increases in the number of rafters fleeing by sea.

Neither has there been any explanation for what caused the man who ruled Cuba for 47 years to undergo intestinal surgery on July 31 and surrender his monopoly on power for the first time.

Taken together, these elements have left some Cuba watchers wondering about what is really going on in the island of 11 million people just 90 miles off Key West.

When Fidel Castro handed over the reins to Raúl, he stage-managed a scene that caught most Cuba experts off guard: a succession from Fidel to Raúl without Fidel's death.

Even now, some believe, the 80-year-old Fidel may well be continuing to plot the island's future course, leaving little leeway for his 75-year-old brother.

''I don't think Raúl would want to make a lot of change with Fidel still in the picture,'' said Mark Falcoff, author of Cuba, The Morning After. "I think he's scared to death of his brother.''

''He has to be careful on how far he can push, not only because of Fidel, but because of the hard-line Fidelistas, who would accuse him of betrayal,'' said Edward Gonzalez, a Cuba expert at the California-based RAND Corporation.

QUIET COUNTDOWN

Illustrating the apparent calm, Miami radio commentator Francisco Aruca, a steadfast critic of U.S. sanctions on Cuba, had been starting his daily program with the words "Today marks XX days, and nothing has happened.''

''Contrary to what people want to acknowledge, the great majority of people [in Cuba] don't want the shaking up of society,'' said Aruca, a frequent traveler to the island. "I do believe that they want changes, but no upheaval or violence.''

Even dissidents on the island have been reluctant to push too hard for change, perhaps because some want to retain a measure of stability, perhaps because some fear a government crackdown.

Wayne Smith, a former head of the U.S. diplomatic mission in Havana and frequent critic of U.S. policy on Cuba, said that dissidents have acted responsibly and that the population as a whole has accepted the transfer of power "with great calm and maturity.''

''It had always been planned that Raúl Castro would step in, and he did,'' Smith said in a telephone interview from Washington. "Only people in Miami were expecting some kind of collapse.''

Castro shocked the world on a Monday night a month ago when his secretary, Carlos Valenciaga, read a letter on Cuban television, announcing the power shift because of a ''sharp intestinal crisis with sustained bleeding'' that required "complicated surgery.''

The public has since seen Castro only twice, first in a series of Cuban newspaper photos showing him sitting up, then in a video taken during a bedside visit by Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez and broadcast on Castro's 80th birthday, Aug. 13.

Raúl, too, has kept a low profile, showing up only to meet Chávez at the airport, in the visit video and later in a photo that accompanied a long interview he granted to the daily newspaper Granma.

Raúl said in the interview that he was open to dialogue with the United States, and Washington later made somewhat similar comments. Both comments included harsh caveats that would make it difficult to open talks, but they nevertheless raised eyebrows among Cuba watchers.

In the meantime, the Bush administration has shown no appetite for any aggressive effort to undermine the succession to Raúl and promote a transition to democracy.

AWAITING DIALOGUE?

''The U.S. wants to avoid any kind of crisis or instability in Cuba,'' said Antonio Jorge, a professor of economics and international relations at Florida International University. "So, I expect Washington [will] wait for the opportunity to establish some kind of . . . dialogue.''

Roger Noriega, a former assistant secretary of state for the Western Hemisphere, said the administration's lack of more muscular insistence for democratic reforms is more likely "just a question of quiet diplomacy.''

''The United States does not want to be perceived as trying to manage what is happening in Cuba,'' he said.

But Noriega expressed concern about the ''lack of any obvious mobilization'' by Cuba's small and traditionally tightly monitored dissident movement.

''That's what's going to propel change -- when Cubans themselves take the initiative and claim their rights,'' Noriega said. "They need to step up.''

In a sign that the elder Castro remains in charge, Raúl reportedly has continued to work in his office in the Ministry of Defense instead of moving into Fidel's presidential offices.

But Raúl received a Syrian delegation earlier this week in preparation for a summit of Nonaligned Movement nations that Havana is scheduled to host next month -- a move seen as a hint that Fidel will not be well enough to attend.

Chávez may be buying Cuba's future with oil

Venezuela's Hugo Chávez has thrown Cuba a huge economic lifeline, which may give him influence over what comes next on the island.

By Frances Robles And Steven Dudley, sdudley@MiamiHerald.com. Posted on Wed, Aug. 30, 2006

* Acuerdo entre la República de Cuba y la República Bolivariana de Venezuela (.pdf)
* Declaración Final de la Primera Reunión Cuba-Venezuela para la aplicación de la Alternativa Bolivariana para las Américas (.pdf)

As Cuban leader Fidel Castro convalesces in Havana and brother Raúl rules temporarily, experts say another man may hold Cuba's future in his hands: Hugo Chávez.

The Venezuelan president is propping up the Cuban economy by giving it nearly 100,000 barrels of oil a day virtually for free, according to experts. At today's prices, the subsidy could exceed $2 billion this year, nearly half the $4 billion to $6 billion that Moscow once pumped into Cuba per year.

But Venezuela's contributions to the Cuban economy don't end there. It has bought nearly half of the island's aging Cienfuegos refinery and is reportedly providing $300 million to $500 million in credit for a number of projects that range from housing to electricity. Venezuela also has opened a shipyard with Cuba in the South American nation's city of Maracaibo and sent thousands to Cuba for eye and other surgeries.

''It looks like Chávez has a stranglehold on what's going to happen in Cuba,'' said Susan Kaufman Purcell, director of the University of Miami's Center for Hemispheric Policy. "Cuba is dependent on him.''

Venezuela claims that Cuba pays for the bulk of the oil shipments with an estimated 30,000 to 40,000 medical personnel, sports trainers and teachers deployed in Venezuela to help the poor. But analysts say the deal amounts to a giveaway.

Chávez has long looked to Castro for ideological guidance and loosely used the Cuban model to push his own ''Bolivarian revolution'' at home and in other Latin American nations. He has also used the Cuban medical and other personnel to maintain his popularity at home.

But the Bush administration has complained that Chávez's aid will help a post-Castro Cuba and its perennially weak economy maintain its communist system and avoid any transition to democracy and open markets.

''If Castro dies tomorrow, who is going to pay for all those barrels?'' asked Jorge Piñon, a former Amoco executive who studies energy issues for the University of Miami's Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies.

'If tomorrow Juan López is president [of Cuba] and he wants to forget about this little guy . . . then Chávez can say, 'I am stopping delivery of this, and by the way, you owe me X.' And the next day, the airplanes in Cuba would stop flying, the tourist taxis and buses would stop hitting the highway.''

92,000 BARRELS

Venezuela began helping Cuba almost six years ago, shipping 53,000 barrels a day of crude and refined products on easy financial terms. Since then, it has increased those shipments to at least 92,000 barrels a day.

Trade between the nations is expected to reach $3.5 billion this year, Adán Chávez, the president's brother and former ambassador to Cuba, told The Associated Press in April. He said oil alone amounted to $1.8 billion in trade in 2005.

But while Venezuela says that Cuba is paying part of the bill with the professionals, medicines, books and other items that Cuba sends, independent analysts say the numbers don't add up. Havana would have to be collecting about $80,000 per year per Cuban worker in Venezuela to cover the costs of its oil imports, the analysts say.

Instead, Cuban doctors in Venezuela receive about $3,000 per year, according to three Cuban doctors who defected from the program.

Energy consultant Pedro Mantellini, a former official at the Venezuelan state oil company known by its Spanish acronym, PDVSA, likens the deal to a $1,000 car wash.

''It's illogical,'' said Mantellini, who spent 14 years in the PDVSA strategy room but now faces rebellion charges in Venezuela for his role in a 2002 coup against Chávez. He has obtained asylum in South Florida. "It's a rip-off.''

The White House's point man on plans for a post-Castro transition, Caleb McCarry, recently told The Miami Herald that U.S. estimates of total Venezuelan subsidies to Cuba per year "are up to the $2 billion figure.''

LITTLE INFORMATION

Still, it's hard to know for sure how the oil-for-Cuban workers agreement balances out in financial terms. Venezuela has provided scant data on how Cuba is paying for the oil; Cuba does not speak at all on the matter.

According to a copy of one oil accord signed by the two nations and obtained by The Miami Herald, if the price of oil exceeds $40 a barrel, Cuba would get a two-year grace period on repayments and they would be extended over 25 years at 1 percent interest. Venezuelan oil is now selling at about $60 per barrel, at a time when world prices are above $70, because it tends to be heavier and more difficult to refine.

But experts say that Cuba has never paid any cash for the oil. A University of Miami report last year said Cuba's deferred oil payments from 2000 to 2004 totaled nearly $2 billion.

The Venezuelan El Nacional newspaper reported last year that the only recent independent audit of PDVSA, by a local affiliate of the global accounting firm KPMG, found that Cuba owed $584 million as of December 2003. KPMG refused to reveal any details of its audit.

Most estimates of the amount of Venezuelan oil going to Cuba coincide at 100,000 barrels a day. Piñón said that includes 67,000 barrels of refined products such as gasoline, jet fuel and diesel. Another 37,000 barrels, he said, is crude that is refined in Cuba. Cuba itself produces an estimated 70,000 to 75,000 barrels, and its consumption is estimated at 170,000 to 200,000 barrels per day.

But Cuba needs more than oil shipments, experts say. It needs a coherent energy strategy, another area in which Venezuela is trying to help the island.

Venezuela has purchased 49 percent of a Cuban refinery in central Cienfuegos and is spending an initial $83 million to revive it. The refinery will need hundreds of millions more in upgrades. Once completed, it will produce about 76,000 barrels a day of refined products and ease Cuba's dependency on Venezuelan imports.

Venezuela has also promised to help Cuba upgrade its electricity grid and halt its frequent and prolonged blackouts. Earlier this month, four million people were plunged into darkness by what the government said was a fault in the grid.

HOUSING PROJECTS

On the social front, the Industrial Bank of Venezuela has opened up a $50 million credit line for housing projects in Cuba, and former Ambassador Chávez told the AP that up to $1 billion would be changing hands for housing projects in both countries.

In addition, the Venezuelan government has footed the bill for the thousands of Venezuelans and other Latin Americans who regularly fly to Cuba for various medical treatments.

''It's a replay of what the Soviet Union was doing,'' said Américo Martín, a Venezuelan political analyst.

But just how much influence Chávez will be able to buy in Cuba with his subsidies remains a question mark.

Martín believes that Raúl Castro's inner circle will control the country's next moves, regardless of Chávez's money or possible suggestions. ''There are elements of power that don't want to submit to Chávez,'' he said.

But Hans de Salas-del Valle, a research associate at the University of Miami's Cuba Transition Project, predicts a stronger role for Chávez.

''Raúl will run the country . . . but Chávez holds enormous leverage,'' he said. "Other than Raúl, there is no one more than Chávez who will influence the future of Cuba.''

Miami Herald special correspondent Phil Gunson contributed to this article from Caracas.

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