The Miami Herald
Castro succession a dilemma for the U.S.
By Juan O. Tamayo. jtamayo@herald.com. Published Monday,
June 25, 2001
U.S. troops and the Coast Guard will be put on a heightened state of alert
when President Fidel Castro of Cuba dies, but Washington will then find itself
in a significant quandary on how to treat his successors, Cuba analysts say.
"Any U.S. administration will be reading the tea leaves, poring over
any word that [Castro's successors] utter and looking for opportunities,'' said
Brian Latell, a retired CIA analyst who spent 25 years studying Cuba.
Castro's slumping over a lectern Saturday as he gave a speech just outside
Havana under a searing sun raised dozens of questions about the succession to a
totalitarian ruler in power since President Eisenhower was in the White House.
Most Cuban affairs experts agree that the chances of an explosion of
protests immediately after his death are minimal. The government is likely to
announce his death only after it has secured the streets with troops and police,
they say.
Under Cuban law, Castro will be succeeded by his brother Raúl, four
years younger than the 74-year-old Fidel and now commander of the armed forces
and second in command of the government and the Cuban Communist Party.
Yet under the U.S. Helms-Burton Law, full diplomatic and trade relations
with Cuba cannot begin until the island achieves full democracy and frees
political prisoners -- and both Fidel and Raúl are out of the picture.
"Helms-Burton locks Washington into an all-or-nothing approach that may
not allow the kind of flexibility that will be required if Raúl succeeds
Fidel,'' said a European analyst who asked for anonymity because he still visits
Cuba frequently.
PLANS MADE
South Florida government and Cuban exile community leaders have long made
plans for the day when the man who has controlled Cuba for 42 years dies -- from
celebratory parades to crowd-control measures.
But the most immediate concern in Washington would be an immigration crisis
-- a massive outflow of rafters similar to the Mariel boatlift in 1980 or the
rafter crisis in 1994.
"You can be sure the Coast Guard and the military at the Guantanamo
[Naval] base will be on the highest alert possible at the first sign of
instability,'' said a retired U.S. military official once privy to the emergency
plans drafted by the Miami-based U.S. Southern Command.
But in the medium term, the period that U.S. analysts of Cuban affairs often
refer to as "after the funeral,'' the U.S. government will be paying more
attention to the speeches of whatever ruling clique succeeds Castro.
"Then the issue would be how much flexibility [Washington would show]
if Raúl Castro and his entourage were to signal any significant opening
with respect to democracy and the political opposition,'' Latell said.
"Certainly, there would be a dialogue at some level,'' Latell said, "through
the Interests Sections'' -- the offices that Cuba and the United States maintain
in each others' capitals in the absence of full diplomatic relations.
But the outcome of any such exploratory contacts would depend heavily on the
policies adopted by Castro's successors -- most likely a leadership system
resembling the "collective leadership'' adopted by the Soviet Union after
Stalin's death and China after Mao's passing.
"The odds favor a dynastic succession and praetorian regime dominated
by his brother, his generals and a few civilians trusted by the generals,'' said
Latell, who teaches at Georgetown University.
'FIRST AMONG EQUALS'
Under such an arrangement, Raúl Castro would be "first among
equals,'' representing not only Cuba's politically powerful military but the
government's revolutionary roots that stretch back to the early 1950s.
Raúl is considered more of an orthodox communist than Fidel, and
therefore unlikely to allow economic and political reforms similar to those that
former Soviet Union President Mikhail Gorbachev launched in the 1980s.
Others in the "collective leadership'' would likely be civilians who
represent key sectors of Cuba's power structure.
The "collective leadership'' would no doubt try to maintain the
revolution's socialist principles, its achievements in health and education and
its anti-American line for as long as possible, analysts said.
But they will lack Fidel Castro's historically proven ability to make tough
decisions -- and impose them by the force of his will -- in a country beset by a
shaky economy and a huge foreign debt, analysts said.
"That's when the real process of transition will begin, a couple of
months after the funeral is over, when they have to make a lot of tough
decisions on the country's future,'' Latell said.
Two other possible scenarios raise concerns among U.S. analysts:
Raúl Castro could die before his brother, throwing the established
succession procedures into doubt. He is reputed to be a heavy drinker, but has
not shown any of the signs of aging that his brother has recently displayed.
Fidel Castro lapses into a coma or some other incapacitating condition that
leaves him alive and in power, but physically unable to govern to the best of
his abilities.
But no matter how events surrounding Castro's passing unfold, his successors
are soon likely to begin fighting among themselves on the allocation of Cuba's
meager resources, analysts said.
"The emergence of these interest groups would be felt within months
after the funeral,'' Latell predicted. "I would think they would have less
time than two to three years before some serious instability emerges.''
The choice facing Cuba's rulers then will be harsh: open the economy more to
market forces -- and expose themselves to the virus of democracy -- or attempt
to continue Fidel's system of juggling minor openings and tight social and
political controls, but without the master juggler.
Castro falters, recovers
By Nancy San Martin. nsanmartin@herald.com. Published
Sunday, June 24, 2001
Cuban leader Fidel Castro nearly collapsed as he delivered an outdoor speech
in a suburb of Havana on Saturday and had to be helped offstage by a phalanx of
aides and bodyguards who rushed to his side and managed to prevent him from
falling.
The 74-year-old Cuban leader, who had never been known to suffer a lapse in
public, returned to the podium in El Cotorro, an industrial town on the
outskirts of the capital, within minutes. He reassured the crowd of some 60,000
that he was fine and would return in the evening to finish the discourse.
Hours later, he resumed the speech -- this time sitting down and from the
relative comfort of an indoor television studio.
Before continuing his address, Castro recounted what had occurred hours
earlier.
Castro said that after he was helped down the steps of the stage, he was
taken to a nearby ambulance and given oxygen. He said that as he was taking his
own pulse, he noticed that the ambulance was not moving and decided to return to
the podium.
He said he recovered quickly from the fatigue and had to "enforce a
little authority'' to persuade physicians to let him reassure the audience in El
Cotorro that he was fine.
He explained that the fainting spell was the result of extraordinary heat,
lack of sleep and little food for many hours.
"I'm fine, don't worry,'' Castro told the crowd. "I couldn't
finish [the speech] but I will . . . I have things to say and I want to finish.
"Estoy entero (I'm in one piece).''
Just before his near-collapse, Castro appeared weak and unsure of himself,
drenched in sweat and wiping his brow before he began to falter.
The Cuban leader was wearing his traditional long-sleeved military uniform,
under which he is believed to also wear a bulletproof vest when in public, and
heavy black boots. Temperatures were in the mid-80s.
Cuban officials dismissed the incident as nothing more than a momentary
setback caused by intense heat and exhaustion. "There is no problem,'' said
Luis Fernández, a spokesman at the Cuban Interests Section in Washington.
"It was very hot in Havana and he had hardly slept the night before. He has
a very intense job. It could happen to anyone. He is in tremendous health.''
But for most of the 11 million Cubans on the island, who have never known
any other leader except Castro, the incident was something of a shock.
Castro was about two hours into his speech when his voice began to fade. He
became weary as he denounced the recent guilty verdict by a Miami jury of five
Cubans indicted on espionage charges. He also had expressed outrage again over
the case of Elián González, which he has repeatedly referred to as
"a kidnapping.''
Government officials standing nearby, including Vice President Carlos Lage,
rushed to his aid. A glass of water was placed at his side, but when Castro
leaned heavily against the lectern, security forces raced up and whisked him
away.
On television, members of the security force could be heard saying, "aguántalo,
rápido'' ("hold him up, quickly'').
A black shield, which appeared to be made of thick canvass material or
Kevlar, a synthetic fiber used to make bulletproof security items, was held up
in front of Castro. A security official in civilian clothing placed a hand to
his gun on his waist as he scanned the crowd, television footage of the event
showed.
News that Castro may be ill spread quickly in Miami, sending
Spanish-language radio into a round of speculation over Castro's fate and
whether this was the beginning of the end.
The episode followed another recent public appearance by Castro in Pinar del
Río, where he seemed distracted and incoherent at times.
Some radio callers on Saturday said they were preparing to uncork champagne
bottles. Others were giddy and full of optimism, saying that "the end is
near.''
Cuba-watchers also seized the opportunity to shed doubt on the future of a
Cuba led by Castro.
"The more important point here, I think, is that his sort of physical
collapse mirrors the collapse of the Cuban regime,'' said Dennis Hays, executive
vice president of the Cuban American National Foundation from Washington. "They're
hanging on with basically life support and the prognosis is not good for either
one of them.
"What needs to happen is hopefully there are people who realize this is
a dead end for Cuba and they need to begin to undertake drastic and rapid
reforms if they have any hope of improving the life of the average Cuban.''
Said Cuban-born U.S. Congresswoman Ileana Ros--Lehtinen, R-Miami:"We
all know Castro's days are numbered.''
At least two theories floated about why the spectacle was allowed on live
television.
One was that no one in Castro's inner circle would dare tell the leader that
he looked weary and should not go out in public. The other is that high-ranking
government officials are consciously preparing the Cuban people for a
post-Castro transition.
"Be calm,'' was the mantra on radio and television in Cuba.
Cameras televising the live speech in El Cotorro pulled the view away from
the stage and Castro, instead focusing on the crowd. Some had confused looks on
their faces. Others were crying.
Those attending the rally said that Castro never actually collapsed. But the
Cuban government's official newspaper, Granma, reported that Castro had fainted
("sufrió un desvanecimiento'').
Foreign Minister Felipe Pérez Roque immediately stepped in front of
the microphone and asked for calm. He also urged the crowd to lift their
miniature Cuban flags into the air, an act that was followed by chants of "Fidel,
Fidel.''
"Compañero Fidel obviously has had in the middle of the heat . .
. a momentary fall,'' Pérez Roque said.
Less than 10 minutes later, Castro was back behind the podium, asking the
crowd not to worry, that he was merely tired and would return in the evening
when it was cooler to finish his speech.
He concluded with the words that have marked his 42-year-old revolution: "Patria
o muerte, venceremos'' ("Homeland or death, we shall overcome'').
Castro, who turns 75 on Aug. 13, returned to his more usual character later
in the evening.
He lambasted the United States for ignoring what he called "acts of
terrorism'' against Cuba. He recounted the Elián González saga and
the alleged plots carried out by Cuba exiles in Miami, which he calls "mafia,''
in an attempt to dismantle the regime.
He talked at length, his finger raised in the air in his customary gesture.
Castro has rarely discussed life in Cuba after his demise, except to say
that the revolution will go on without him. When he turned 70, Castro publicly
acknowledged that he won't be around forever.
"I am not eternal,'' he said at the time. "Suddenly, one discovers
that almost everything [in life] is behind and that life has its limits.''
Herald staff writers Carol Rosenberg and Luisa Yanez contributed to this
report.
Leader's health is well-kept secret
By Carol Rosenberg. crosenberg@herald.com. Published
Sunday, June 24, 2001
There were reports that he quit cigars in 1985 because of lung cancer,
rumors that he had a pacemaker put in four summers ago, and a senior Latin
American politician who spent time with him three years ago swore there was a
bladder bag beneath his revolutionary uniform.
But officially, and even in the realm of behind-the-scenes confirmation, the
health history of Fidel Castro is a Cuban state secret.
In fact, Castro's near-collapse on Cuban-run television Saturday is
unprecedented in its visibility across his 42-year history as commander of the
Cuban Revolution.
"His personal life and any kind of personal issues related to health
and vigor are state secrets. The image of an invincible, vigorous revolutionary
leader has always been one that he personally has projected. It's theater,''
said Georgetown University instructor Brian Latell, a retired Central
Intelligence Agency analyst whose specialty was Cuba and Castro.
Never before, according to Cuba watchers, has Havana even acknowledged that
Castro skipped a day of work because of a flu or other health problems.
NO MEDIA MENTIONS
And not once, they say, has official Cuban media mentioned any health
problems.
Now suddenly, "Here is the image of the invincible leader, who has
never been ill, for the first time cracking. This is the screen that Castro has
always hidden behind,'' Latell said.
"Now this myth of his invincibility is going to be coming under greater
and greater strain on the island. Once he is seen to have very serious
infirmities, would-be successors are going to start jockeying for position.''
Some Castro watchers, however, thought they saw signs of mental
deterioration in a recent speech he delivered in Pinar del Río, excerpts
of which were carried on Telemundo's Miami affiliate, Channel 51.
In it, Castro fumbles with documents, thinks out loud to try to count -- and
recount -- the number of Cuban provinces slated to get special government
super-hospitals.
Television even captured Castro expelling a wad of spittle -- an event that
caused the Cuban American National Foundation, Castro's biggest U.S. foe, to dub
the Cuban leader "the drooling dictator.''
"His health is not good. He has been showing this in a whole series of
public appearances in recent weeks,'' said Dennis Hays, CANF executive vice
president and a former U.S. diplomat in Washington.
Like Latell, he called Castro's health "one of the most closely guarded
secrets in Cuba.''
As a result, he said, information about his infirmity is the product of
visual observations, speculations and, at times, rumors that roil the streets of
Miami and Havana.
"What we're left with is what we see,'' he said, "and what we see
is he appears to be suffering from a series of ailments that make him less
steady, less confident, less lucid than he was in years past.''
What could it be?
Through the years Cuban exile activists and Cuba watchers have offered
arm-chair diagnoses without ever offering solid evidence or any sort of
confirmation. Conditions included a stroke or colon cancer, Parkinson's disease
or a prostate ailment, even arthritis.
After the Channel 51 spot aired in Miami, some Cuban Americans said they
spotted the slide toward senility they had seen in a grandparent.
ALMOST 75
Castro turns 75 on Aug. 13. His father lived into his mid-80s, causing
skepticism among Cuba observers when reports arose of deterioration.
In July 1998, for example, Miami and Costa Rican newspapers were embarrassed
after they reported that the Cuban leader had suffered from a brain disease and
had been secretly treated in an exclusive Havana hospital.
The report was based on interviews with Elizabeth Trujillo Izquierdo, who
told reporters from San José, Costa Rica, that she was a Cuban doctor and
with her husband had been involved in treating Castro.
Havana quickly heaped scorn on the report, which turned out to be a hoax
once Trujillo Izquierdo's record came under more intensive scrutiny.
Other health reports have likewise never been elevated above the stage of
rumor. In 1997, for example, many in Havana and Miami were repeating rumors that
Castro had a pacemaker installed or suffered a slight stroke. But they never
were confirmed.
CIA REPORT
That same year, a CIA report released by the U.S. Senate Select Committee on
Intelligence characterized Castro as healthy.
It quoted CIA Director George Tenet as telling the committee, "Fidel
Castro appears healthy for a man of 70 and his political position seems secure.
Unless he suffers a health crisis,'' it added, "he is likely to be in power
a year from now.''
A decade earlier, in January 1989, Time magazine's "Grapevine'' section
reported that Castro gave up cigar smoking in 1985 because doctors discovered a
small malignancy in a lung. Its source: "Soviet officials.'' Asked about
that report in Washington, U.S. officials were unable to confirm it.
But Latell said Saturday that in the past year "there's been more and
more reason to surmise that he has some serious affliction, some possibly
life-threatening affliction.''
Why surmise it? Because while most people who have visited with the Cuban
leader describe him as "fine, vigorous, clear and articulate,'' he said,
there have been "a smattering of reports'' that he has suffered
Castro's falter sets Miami exiles abuzz with speculation on his end
By Elaine De Valle . edevalle@herald.com
South Florida's Cuban exile community was abuzz Saturday -- and local
telephone wires warmed -- as word spread of Fidel Castro's mid-speech stumble.
Millie Puig was at the Miami-Dade County Auditorium watching her daughter in
a dance program when her cellular telephone rang. It was her cousin.
"Fidel fell,'' he told her.
"What?''
At first she thought Castro had been overthrown. Then her cousin explained
that the Cuban leader had fainted. She was still buoyed by the news.
"We're going on vacation next week, to Bimini and Eleuthera, and my
cousin said, 'Maybe we should change directions. Prepare the boat to go to
Cuba,' '' Puig said.
For many Cubans, Castro's rare public display of physical frailty was taken
as highly significant, particularly on the heels of a speech earlier this month
during which Castro appeared confused and at times incoherent.
"The beginning of the end,'' said Ramón Pérez, a
65-year-old truck driver having coffee with his wife, Belkys, at the Versailles
Restaurant window on Southwest Eighth Street, long a street-level water cooler
for the Cuban exile community.
"Nobody is eternal,'' said Juán Carlos Maimoné. "This
has opened a bunch of very big hopes for people here.''
Others were cautiously optimistic, citing previous unconfirmed rumors about
Castro's health.
"Bad health for Fidel Castro is good news for freedom lovers
everywhere,'' said U.S. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R-Miami. "Unfortunately
we've been here before where he's had ill health and he's back up a few weeks
later.''
Oscar Pérez, born eight days before Castro, said chronologically
speaking the Cuban leader may still have some steam.
"I was dehydrated last Saturday and I almost died, and I'm still
here,'' the barber said.
Still, Castro's stagger Saturday was greeted with much more enthusiasm than
prior rumors, because it was seen by thousands in Havana and by television
viewers around the world as the episode was rebroadcast dozens of times.
"This is different,'' said Pérez, the truck driver. "This
is not something that only we in exile are excited about. This was seen around
the world. Everybody is saying it: His days are numbered.''
Spanish-language radio programs that weren't devoted to Castro's moments of
faltering were peppered with references to the episode. An interview with Willy
Chirino about his latest album was interrupted by calls from people asking him
to sing Ya Viene Llegando, the salsa star's song about the day island Cubans can
celebrate Castro's absence.
On WQBA 1140 AM, La Cubanisima, an exile doctor talked about the
74-year-old's deterioration as if Castro were in the "end stage'' of some
mysterious disease.
"The deterioration has been so huge just from a few weeks ago,'' said
Ninoska Pérez Castellón, a spokeswoman for the Cuban American
National Foundation. "Remember, nobody has ever seen him fall like this.''
Carlos Dolz agreed.
"Now he'll lose the confidence of his supporters,'' he said. "Now
he has to convince the world that he's not an invalid.''
Others took the news more in stride, having been the ones years ago who
said, "Next Christmas in Havana.''
"And so what even if he does die?'' asked Antonio Oquenda. "What's
going to happen? Nothing. The ones who are there around him are going to keep
things going the same way.''
While dozens of people rushed a television news van to see the image of a
weakened Castro being led from the podium by his bodyguards, Oquenda shrugged
off continuing news coverage of the event.
He said he would instead be watching Saturday night's Oscar de la Hoya
boxing match.
"I'm not watching any news,'' he said. "If Fidel falls, I'll find
out tomorrow.''
Copyright 2001 Miami Herald | 
