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December 11, 2001



Redrawing the lines on Cuba

Max J. Castro. Published Tuesday, December 11, 2001 in

The hard-line Cuban radio stations and commentators in Miami were at it again last week. This time the target of their wrath wasn't a Cuban-American academic who said something politically inconvenient on prime time or a touring musical group from the island. On this occasion the object of attack was a most unlikely one: a dozen wealthy and moderately conservative Cuban-American businessmen brought together under the umbrella of the Cuba Study Group.

What sin did these eminent exiles commit to bring on themselves a torrent of invective from the guardians of anti-Castro orthodoxy? They commissioned a poll, conducted by the firm of Bendixen and Associates, whose findings punctured some cherished beliefs. In particular, the results showed that a majority of Cuban Americans feel that the policy of confrontation between exiles and the Cuban government has been a failure. So conservative Cuban-American pundits weighed in to question everything from the survey's methods to the credibility of the pollster and the motives of the Cuba Study Group.

What does the poll show? Results indicate a trend toward moderation. Specifically: 55 percent of exiles believe confrontation has been a failure; 53 percent believe that travel to Cuba is an important agent of change; only 23 percent of exiles are hard-liners.

Are these results so out of line with other scientific evidence as to suggest bias, as the critics say? Actually, what's remarkable is how closely the results of the Cuba Study Group track some previously observed trends, while at the same time venturing into previously unexplored territory.

Take the crucial issue of the embargo. A survey of Cuban Americans conducted in 2000 by Florida International University showed that, excluding ambiguous responses (don't know/no answer), 64 percent supported continuing the embargo. And what does the Cuba Study Group 2001 study show? It shows that, excluding ambiguous answers, 62 percent of Cuban Americans support the embargo. Although the difference of 2 percent is within the margin of error, one might speculate that what the most recent poll shows is the continuation of a predictable trend. That's because many polls show younger Cuban Americans are less likely than their elders to support the embargo.

Indeed, when FIU conducted a similar poll in 1997, 78 percent of Cuban Americans supported the embargo. What about the Cuba Study Group finding that shows exiles think confrontation is a failure? In the 2000 FIU Cuba poll, 74 percent of Cuban Americans said the embargo -- the central element of the policy of confrontation -- doesn't work.

While the results of the Bendixen poll are consistent with other polls and known trends, change in the Cuban community may be taking place somewhat faster than a 2 percent yearly drop in support for the embargo might suggest. That is because of differences in the samples used in the two polls.

The FIU poll included anyone who identified him or herself as Cuban or Cuban American. The Cuba Study Group included only those Cuban Americans who said they were interested in Cuban issues. The latter procedure likely yielded more politicized and conservative respondents.

The Cuba Study Group poll shows more clearly than ever before that the handwriting is on the wall for the hard-line position. That is the reason for the ferocious response.

One fair criticism that can be leveled at the Cuba Study Group is that it hasn't yet released its poll fully and publicly. For instance, one might want to know how they defined hard-liners and nonhard-liners.

The larger point is that both science and democracy demand transparency and the risks that come with scrutiny. Ultimately, those risks are worth taking because claims of scientific validity or democratic legitimacy can be established no other way than in the light and heat of open debate.

maxcastro@miami.edu

Copyright 2001 Miami Herald

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