By Karen Horn. F.A.Z.
Germany, April 6, 2001.
How do people in Havana order a Cuba Libre -- that decidedly unsocialist mix
of rum and coke -- among like-minded friends without speaking? The young man who
asks the question with a conspiratorial grin first checks that no one is
eavesdropping on his joke. The answer is obvious yet surprising: First, you hint
at a Castro beard on your chin, and then you cut the blade of your hand across
your throat in a crude parody of sudden death.
Cubans are probably well advised to refrain from this mime show on the
street or near strangers. After all, every apartment block in town has a Comite
de la defensa de la revolucion , the Cuban version of the house warden. The
committees fulfill several social functions and are particularly useful in
smoking out any antirevolutionary activity in their neighborhoods.
The fact that the population, like the German Democratic Republic in the old
days, seeks a safety valve in such trenchant pantomime shows that the comrades
are discontented. Although Cubans have a sunny disposition, they are now
impatiently awaiting the period that will follow Fidel Castro, the 75-year-old
head of state, government and party rolled into one.
Thanks to the liberation from dictator Fulgencio Batista in 1959, the
successful literacy campaign and the removal of the most terrible social evils,
this former lawyer, whom everyone calls Fidel, still enjoys great respect.
Although they would not dare say so publicly, many Cubans have had enough of the
42 years of revolution, which the ubiquitous posters proclaim without a hint of
awareness of their unintentional yet grotesque irony.
People laugh with a knowing bitterness when Castro, as he did recently,
shouts during a demonstration: "Today, as we celebrate the 42nd anniversary
of your triumph and victoriously enter the new millennium, the Cuban revolution
is stronger than ever. Our people are more united than ever." They are
indeed united -- in their irritation with such slogans. Few still believe the
catchphrase: "El socialismo vencera " ("Socialism will vanquish").
Many find the idea of a third way more attractive.
However, more than 10 years after the collapse of the eastern bloc the
government is holding fast to socialist economic and social models. Cuba did not
introduce them because of political ideology but because of its perpetual
political confrontation with the United States. The guerrillas around Castro
began as liberators of an oppressed people in the 1950s. They became Socialists
later.
The decades of close dependence on the former Soviet Union and the eastern
bloc secured socialist ideals, not only with Castro, and made Cuba the East
Germany of the Caribbean -- economically but also in terms of its political
organization, social hierarchy and its indoctrination and control system. Today
Castro, who enjoys good health, appears to realize that after his death nothing
will be as it was. Yet his loyal followers try to outdo each other in paying lip
service and asserting the eternal nature of socialism. Defiance may also be at
work here as well as the need to survive in face of the fight with the yanquis.
The United State's most recent and devastating economic lever has a name:
Helms-Burton. A law of the same name was passed in 1996, bearing the names of
its authors, Jesse Helms, the chairman of the Senate foreign relations committee
and Congressman Dan Burton. It can only be repealed when Castro and his brother
Raul are no longer in power. This "slavery law," as Cubans call it,
forbids American and foreign companies from any economic contact with Cuba under
the threat of severe sanctions.
Socialism and embargos are two sides of the same coin. Within their embrace,
11 million Cubans scrape a living together. Economic performance and standard of
living are below the level Cuba attained before the collapse of communism in
Europe. Gross domestic product per capita (GDP), if based on the official rate
of 1 peso to the dollar, is close to $2,640, putting it at about level with
Lithuania. However, these figures have little meaning because the peso is not
convertible, and its true purchasing power is really 21 pesos to the dollar.
This is an improvement over 1994 when $1 dollar cost 120 pesos on the black
market.
Dresdner Bank Latin America (DBL) estimates that actual per capita GDP is no
more than $116. It is not easy to produce figures on how this affects the budget
of ordinary Cubans. Critical exiled Cuban journalists working for the
publication Cubanet rank the true figure at $15 per month, while U.S. economist
Ana Julia Jatar has calculated that real monthly household income for Cuban
government employees corresponds to the purchasing power of about $160. One must
also bear in mind that many Cubans receive gifts of money or goods from
relatives in Florida -- worth a total of $800 million in 2000 -- and that most
food staples available in exchange for coupons in state outlets cost a
ridiculously low price that can barely be computed in dollars.
Compared with the early 1990s, when the eastern bloc ceased to be the
country's main trading partner, the West was not a ready replacement because of
the embargo and Castro was forced to introduce a stringent war economy, the
situation has improved thanks to hesitant economic reforms. Since 1995, direct
inward investment from abroad has been permitted in nearly all sectors of the
economy. According to government information, partners from more than 150
countries had a financial stake in about 920 Cuban companies in mid-2000,
despite the Helms-Burton law. The Florida-based US-Cuba Trade and Economic
Council says promised investments for telecommunications, mining and tourism are
worth more than $6 billion. Canadian companies top the list, followed by Mexico,
Italy, Spain and France.
Farmers' markets have been permitted since 1994, where surplus produce can
be sold at prices that are not subject to government control. Since 1995, other
types of private initiative have been permitted within closely defined limits,
and the supply of consumer goods has also risen accordingly. Cuba's shortage
program remains in force, the booklets of coupons now serve to avoid social
poverty rather than as a system of genuine rationing. After the sharp slump in
the early 1990s when the country experienced minus growth rates up to 15
percent, GDP has been continually increasing since 1994. If measured in real
terms, Cuba's growth since 1999 was nevertheless 6.2 percent.
In light of a slight slowing of tourism, most of Cuba's growth will come
from improved efficiency, higher world market prices and a good sugar harvest,
the traditional backbone of its economy, as well as double-digit growth rates
and higher prices for nickel. At least 37 percent of the world's nickel reserves
are found along Cuba's northeastern coast. The DBL calculates that GDP will
increase by 4.5 percent in 2001, though currently a serious drought is creating
anxiety in the sugar and tobacco industries.
Despite this, inflation is not a cause for concern. From 1997 to today, the
official consumer price index has fluctuated from plus 3 to minus 3 percent.
Because of the increasing dollarization of the economy -- since July 1, 1999 the
euro has also been an official means of exchange, but for obvious reasons it has
not been used commercially -- these figures are not particularly meaningful.
More and more products are being offered to Cubans if they pay in hard currency,
and dollar prices are rising swiftly.
Dollarization is causing a problem for many Cubans. When the possession of
dollars was allowed in 1993, the dollar became a widely used parallel currency.
By allowing this, Castro brought a social time bomb into the country. Anyone
with access to dollars can use them to buy pesos to cover his daily needs
because of the controlled price of staple goods in the state-run stores and
still have something left over for small luxuries. However, those who cannot
obtain dollars are dependent on the meager supplies in the state-run stores and
cannot afford any extras -- no soap, no clothes. Some Cubans beg; some earn a
little illegally on the side by buying subsidized goods in pesos and selling
them to tourists in dollars. The trick is not to get caught.
The state wants to keep these social divisions as small as possible. It
therefore retains ownership of most of the businesses that bring in foreign
earnings, particularly tourism. Earnings are in dollars, but the employees, from
hotel porters to taxi drivers and street musicians employed by the state agency,
are all paid in pesos. They are permitted to keep only those tips paid in
dollars. Getting close to the capitalist currency is a mark of favor bestowed
only upon faithful comrades or at least upon those whose record shows no
opposition to the system. The freedom to choose one's profession or trade is as
restricted as it once was in East Germany.
The regulation that employees must be paid in pesos also covers private
companies, whose entrepreneurial efforts are further punished with high taxes,
which has caused many to give up the struggle. Although employees cannot receive
dollar salaries, or at best tips in dollars, and small businesses are heavily
taxed on dollar earnings, the social fault lines are still small -- even if
allegedly 65 percent of citizens have access to the coveted hard currency.
True to the spirit of socialist justice, foreign earnings are channeled
through the state budget so that the overall income from tourism benefits all
comrades. Cuba has high expectations of tourism. In 2000, about two million
tourists visited the island and spent $2 billion in the region. Tourism is
Cuba's best export and its biggest earner of foreign currency. According to DBL
figures, exports were worth approximately $1.8 billion in 2000. Imports were at
least $5 billion, with Russia (sugar) still ahead of Canada (nickel) as the
largest export market.
Since oil deliveries from Russia stopped, the economy has been depressed by
high fuel prices. Due to a trade deficit of only $3.2 billion, the current
account deficit is no higher than $674 million or 2.4 percent of GDP. Thanks to
favorable new oil contracts with Venezuela, the deficit should shrink further
this year.
Sugar remains the country's main export, then nickel, fish (particularly the
30-year exclusive contract to supply spiny lobsters to Spain), tobacco,
biotechnology and pharmaceuticals. This leading edge sector, which even Castro
has taken direct interest in, is currently receiving a subsidy worth about 1.4
percent of GDP. In 1999, the British pharmaceutical company SmithKline Beecham
was able to obtain an exemption from the Helms-Burton law to commercialize a
meningitis vaccine developed in Cuba.
The Cubans are currently planning a marketing campaign in agriculture. Cuban
citrus fruit, grown on collective farms without fertilizer -- though rather puny
to look at -- is now to be sold around the world as certified organic produce.
Cuba already accounts for about 8 percent of the world's grapefruits. Recently
other such efforts have stumbled, if not fallen, at the hurdle provided by the
Helms-Burton law.
Cuba's "slavery law" can only be repealed in a post-Castro era. It
would then be high time for a normalization of Cuban-American relations, for
trading for change and perhaps for a conscious and careful continuation of
Cuba's path into a market economy that is no longer blocked by ideologues. The
people have long thirsted for freedom. The state functionaries repeat the
hackneyed slogan socialismo o muerte (socialism or death), but it no longer has
the power to excite. In the blunt vernacular of the streets, it has been long
since recast as socialismo y muerte (socialism and death).
This is reflected in the membership numbers for Cuba's Communist youth
organization, which took in only 500 new members last year. Young people want a
life of their own even though they often lament that they are not interested in
politics. "If it is our neighborhood's turn to hold the Saturday morning
parade and flag ceremony, I just stay in bed," says one student. He would
like to emigrate, but the freedom to travel is difficult, if not in theory, then
certainly in official practice. Cuba waits.
Mar. 5, 2001
© Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 2001 | 