For the administration, Saturday's raid in Miami is a political winner...
By Rich Lowry, NR Editor . National Review, 4/26/00 6:40 p.m.
The best political fallout the Right can expect from the Elian controversy has already happened: Al Gore getting thrown off his game in recent weeks as he struggles to explain his position, perhaps adding to the perception that he will "say anything to win." But, besides that, the news
is all bad, and will probably stay that way. The fact is that, for the administration, Saturday's raid in Miami is a political winner, both because, in the near term, the public supports it, and in the long term, it is likely to get conservatives further on the wrong side of the politics of law
enforcement.
The administration has two huge, almost insurmountable, advantages in this case. The first is that the public reflexively supports the police, especially against lawless mobs. Back in 1968, liberals were outraged that the public backed the excesses of the Chicago police in their clashes with New
Left demonstrators at the Democratic convention. Shown pictures of cops knocking the heads of scruffy protesters, people supported the police for two reasons: 1) the cops were cops; 2) the scruffy protesters were scruffy protesters. The American public will always side with the perceived forces of
order, which is one reason it is so difficult to get jury verdicts against cops.
Of course, the Miami relatives weren't obnoxious adolescent rebels hurling bags of excrement at the "pigs." But the crowds surrounding their home played on TV like a mob, especially when they talked of defying the Attorney General while the administration piously spoke of "the
rule of law." This, of course, was an empty phrase, but you had to be paying close attention to know it. And the public just doesn't sweat the details in these matters, which is why conservatives were able to make political hay for 30 years by pooh-poohing procedural protections for the
accused, from Miranda on down.
The second advantage is the public's support for family values. It will take an awful lot to get people to believe that Elian shouldn't have been returned to his father. This — like support for the cops — is a deeply ingrained, conservative instinct. So, almost all the administration
has to do is say "father" and "rule of law," and it comes out fine in this controversy. Janet Reno and Co. can be expected to say them over and over in any congressional hearings, which are likely to be a fizzle (as Robert George points out on the site, if the GOP couldn't nail
Reno on Waco, what are its chances of scoring on this?)
Then there's the deeper problem: the Waco-ization of the Right. After Waco and Ruby Ridge, the rhetoric of "jack-booted thugs" was limited to a conservative fringe. Now — understandably, given events — it has much wider currency. This will only give Democrats another opening
to pose as the party of law and order, which President Clinton — depositions aside — has tried to do since 1992, with some success. The broad public will never think it legitimate to compare agents of the American government to storm-troopers--even if they behave like storm-troopers.
None of this means that conservatives shouldn't be screaming about the Miami raid — in fact, the Right has an obligation to do so. But, as during impeachment, it should be an obligation undertaken without any expectation of political benefit. So, you can add this to all the dismaying,
gut-wrenching developments in recent days: the Elian raid will be a popular success for the Clinton administration.
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