Bush call for Cuba democracy fund likely to fall on deaf ears: experts

Yahoo! News. Antonio Rodriguez Thu Oct 25, 2:20 PM ET.

WASHINGTON (AFP) - President George W. Bush's plea that the world community contribute to a fund to promote democratic reform in Cuba likely will fall on deaf ears, and may actually strengthen the hand of its ailing leader Fidel Castro, experts said.

Bush on Wednesday, in his first address since 2003 to focus solely on Cuba, called on the world to help transform the communist island from a "tropical Gulag" by investing economic and political capital in its pro-democracy movements.

Bush said the United States would seek contributions for the billion-dollar "freedom fund" to provide financial support to Cubans -- but only after their government has fully embraced freedom of speech, freedom of the press, multi-party elections and other attributes of a democratic society.

Various respected experts on America's Cuba policy, however, called the initiatives pointless, and possibly even counterproductive.

"This so-called 'multimillion freedom fund' is simply a figment of the president's imagination," Wayne Smith, senior fellow and director of the Cuba program at the Center for International Policy.

A longtime critic of America's economic embargo and other hardline US policies toward the communist island, Smith called the Bush adminstration's entire package of Cuba reforms "absurd."

In the first place, far from having too little money for development, Cuba at the moment is awash in development funds, Smith said.

"They are already getting billions of dollars from Venezuela and China. The Cuban economy is doing OK," he said, adding that the monies have helped the island weather the decades-old economic embargo -- which Bush during his speech insisted he would only lift after democratic reforms take place.

The US leader also called on other countries to make more public shows of support for pro-democracy activists in Cuba, and warned that there may be a price to pay for countries that fail to help.

"The dissidents of today will be the nation's leaders tomorrow. When freedom finally comes, they will surely remember who stood with them," said the president on Wednesday.

Bush said the time is ripe for such pro-democracy initiatives with Castro, 81, aging and infirm, still recovering from gastrointestinal surgery he underwent in July 2006 and possibly on the way out of power.

For the time being, Castro's younger brother Raul Castro, 76, who is also the country's defense chief, is serving as interim president of Cuba.

Smith said however that Washington's current unpopularity -- on the heels of the fiasco in Iraq and other perceived foreign policy failures -- make it unlikely that any countries other than Washington's most loyal allies will answer Bush's call.

"I'm sure that (the Czech Republic) and maybe Poland will say that they will contribute. I don't think anyone else will," said Smith.

Ian Vasquez, of the CATO Institute, took matters even further, calling the speech was a "strategic blunder" by the Bush administration.

"He fell into Castro's trap," Vasquez said.

"With this speech, Castro can say that the North American imperialists once again has interfered in Cuba's internal affairs, and it allows him to more easily discredit efforts to promote democracy on the island."

Even America's influential and well-heeled Cuban exile community, which generally welcomed Bush's speech, criticized the plan as lacking a clear strategy to bring about such change.

And Michael Shifter, vice president for policy, Inter-American Dialogue, said the time has passed when Washington could simply impose its will in Latin America or twist the arms of its European allies.

"Bush's words have an anachronistic ring. For the international community, and certainly Latin America, references to a 'transition' in Cuba seem premature, presumptuous, even offensive," he said.

"If anything can revive Fidel Castro, it is President Bush's speech," Shifter added.

"It's the perfect tonic for the ailing dictator who has always counted on Washington to deliver sharp, confrontational rhetoric that plays into his hands and has helped sustain him in power for so long."