|
Outside View: Cuba on the
eve of change
By Pyotr Romanov, UPI
Outside View Commentator.
MOSCOW, Nov. 14 (UPI) -- Having spent two
weeks in Havana, I saw for myself what seemed
quite obvious: after Fidel's departure,
which is not far off, Cuba is in for serious
change.
The Cubans themselves are well aware of
this. The official slogan about the monolithic
unity of Cuban society is no more than a
propaganda myth. Some Cubans are looking
forward to change, and are already thinking
of how to adapt better to the future reality,
while others are sticking to their old positions
and getting ready to resist change. Still
others are somewhere in between. They are
trying to be flexible, and combine the gains
of the Castro era (which do exist whatever
his enemies may say) with the efforts to
develop a full-fledged democracy and an
effective economy that would be oriented
to social values.
Only a few people I talked to voiced a
different opinion. Giving credit to Castro's
prestige, they argued that the loss of a
leader of such caliber does not mean the
end of an era. "We are closely studying
Vietnam's experience, where the party managed
to fully preserve its positions after Ho
Chi Minh's death," said one of them.
I'm not sure that such a parallel is justified.
It is more in the nature of a dream. The
Cubans and the Vietnamese have little in
common in mentality, and the geopolitic
positions of their countries are different.
But I've decided to quote this view since
it exists among some members of the Cuban
political elite.
Before making political forecasts, let's
determine the point of departure. In other
words, let's sum up what Fidel Castro has
given to Cubans, and where he has let them
down.
In 1959, the Barbudos brought victory to
one of Cuba's three traditional movements
-- the radical trend, which considered Jose
Marti its apostle. A Cuban thinker and poet,
he consistently fought against imperialism
and for Cuba's sovereignty. Two other movements
were the moderate centrists who merely bargained
with the United States for a little more
independence for Cuba, and the annexationists,
who wanted Cuba to join the land of "great
American democracy." At that time,
both of these movements lost, but their
remnants are still there.
It is possible that these trends will gain
momentum when Fidel is gone. According to
some sources, about 500 clandestine opposition
groups are operating in Cuba today. So far,
they are small and scattered, and do not
exert serious influence on the domestic
situation. Their members do not dispute
this fact themselves -- I had a chance to
talk with some of them. But this is how
the matters stand today. I wouldn't underestimate
the Cuban domestic opposition tomorrow.
Cuba's sovereignty is one of Castro's major
achievements. This is the main goal, which
Marti -- Fidel's ideological teacher --
set before Cuban society. There is no doubt
that Cuba has gained genuine independence
against the backlash of permanent confrontation
with the United States. Moreover, Cuba has
managed to protect its sovereignty not only
against American hostility, but also against
Soviet friendship. Cuba simply put on a
socialist mask in gratitude for Soviet help
but in reality, Marxist-Leninist ideas have
never had any deep influence on Castro or
his associates, and Cuba's policy has always
been independent of Moscow.
Today, it is particularly clear that socialism
was just a mask. Granma, the official newspaper
of the Cuban communist party, mentions this
word on rare occasions, to say nothing of
Marxist-Leninist classics. In the two weeks
I was there, I did not see a single portrait
of Lenin or Marx, although I didn't set
myself a special task of finding one. But
there were many monuments to Marti all around.
Even the pre-revolutionary monument to his
mother, put up by Cuba's great Masonic lodge
in 1956, is in excellent shape.
After the Soviet Union's disintegration,
Cuba turned to China. However, Chinese influence
on its ideology is no more serious than
the Soviet one was in the past. At any rate,
it is limited exclusively to the economy,
and Havana's conspicuous politeness towards
Beijing by no means implies ideological
proximity.
In other words, in Cuba, Marti has consistently
defeated Marx, Lenin, Mao, and Deng Xiaoping.
I'm sure that in the future he will "update"
Castro as well because the 1959 revolution
has failed to reach his other goal -- bring
genuine democracy to the Freedom Island.
In this respect, Havana has every reason
for despair. Cuba has indisputable achievements
in education and medicine but it has obviously
failed to build a free and democratic society,
and an effective economy, which would ensure
a decent life for its population. Rank-and-file
Cubans have remained poor despite the government's
versatile social support.
The Cubans are always blaming their economic
hardships on the American blockade. They
have some grounds for that. It is very difficult
to survive in such conditions. Washington
is the only capital, which fails to understand
that its blockade is absolutely immoral
and irrational. The recent voting in the
United Nations on a resolution urging an
end to the blockade has made this particularly
clear. Out of 188 countries only four voted
against it: the United States, Israel, and
two more "influential" states,
the Seychelles and Palau.
However, this does not mean that the Cuban
economy does not require sweeping reforms.
Whether the state wants it or not, it will
have to allow private enterprise if it wants
to improve its economic performance. There
is simply no other option.
The Cuban leaders are aware of this, at
least to some extent. This is why the Cuban
economy is a mixture of seemingly incompatible
archaic and modern elements. It is, in fact,
already closer to the market than it was
in the Soviet Union before its disintegration.
Many corporations and plants are joint stock
companies with foreign participation.
To sum up, at the dusk of Castro's era
Cuba has largely given up its socialist
principles in the economy (at least in their
Soviet version). Ideologically, it is drifting
back to Jose Marti's principles, and to
the traditional Latin American Bolivarian
ideas of fighting for independence.
It is hard to say which part of this policy
is purposeful, and which was forced by the
circumstances, but today's Cuba is moving
in the direction of those countries that
are placing their bets not so much on the
socialist economy as on the socially oriented
capitalist model. Brazil, Venezuela (for
all the radical rhetoric of the extravagant
Hugo Chavez), Bolivia, and now Nicaragua
(after Daniel Ortega's victory) are following
this road.
(Pyotr Romanov is a political commentator
at RIA Novosti. This article was reprinted
with permission from the news agency.)
| 
