CUBA NEWS
The Miami Herald

Indignant Castro claims to feel 'better than ever'

In an hours-long speech at the University of Havana, Fidel Castro defiantly blasted President Bush, derided the CIA's belief that he has Parkinson's and likened himself to El Cid.

By Frances Robles. frobles@herald.com. Posted on Fri, Nov. 18, 2005.

Fidel Castro said he would step down if he became too ill to govern but he insisted he feels ''better than ever,'' a day after The Herald reported that the CIA is convinced he suffers from Parkinson's disease.

In an hours-long speech broadcast live on Thursday night on Cuban state television to commemorate the 60th anniversary of his entering the University of Havana, the 79-year-old blasted President Bush and the CIA for the war in Iraq and the use of secret jails to house terror suspects.

''They've said Parkinson's; what do you think of that?'' Castro told the audience of students and academics. "I don't care if I get Parkinson's. The pope had Parkinson's, and he spent a bunch of years running all around the world.''

Showing no visible signs of health problems and dressed in his fatigues, Castro said he would not insist on remaining in power if he ever became too sick to lead the country.

''If I don't feel I'm in condition, I'll call the [Communist] Party and tell them I don't feel I'm in condition . . . that please, someone take over the command,'' he said.

But Castro also indicated such a scenario was unlikely to occur soon, saying he exercises regularly "and don't neglect myself in any way.''

He said those who report his death will be let down.

''Disappointment follows disappointment,'' said Castro, in a speech peppered by occasional slurring and stuttering.

The Herald reported Wednesday that Central Intelligence Agency analysts are so certain Castro has Parkinson's disease that the agency last year began briefing U.S. policy makers. Reports that he suffers from the nonfatal but debilitating illness have swirled for nearly a decade, but this was the first time the CIA was reported to be convinced they are true.

Two longtime government officials familiar with the briefings said the CIA believes Castro was diagnosed around 1998. Both asked for anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue.

Parkinson's symptoms include tremors, stiffness, difficulty with balance and muffled speech, although it varies according to the patient.

Castro fainted during a speech in a Havana suburb in 2001 and was seen almost collapsing during the inauguration of Argentine President Néstor Kirchner in 2003. He broke his knee and arm when he fell in public last year, and former Ecuadorean President Lucio Gutiérrez wrote in his recent book that he had to prop up a dozing Castro several times while sitting next to him at an international event.

The president of Cuba's national assembly, Ricardo Alarcón, was quoted in the Mexican paper El Sol de México, saying that he doesn't believe the reports came from the CIA.

Castro spoke for more than 4 ½ hours to his alma mater.

''I could be like El Cid Campeador,'' Castro said, referring to the medieval Spanish warrior. "I would recommend that the [Communist] Party put me on a horse -- like Bush -- winning battles even after death.''

MLB wants Cuba to play

If Cuba's national team doesn't play in the World Baseball Classic, officials may turn to Nicaragua or Colombia instead.

By Kevin Baxter, kbaxter@herald.com. Posted on Wed, Nov. 09, 2005.

INDIAN WELLS, Calif. - Imagine an All-Star team with Jorge Posada behind the plate, Gold Glove winners Mike Lowell and Rey Ordoñez on the left side of the infield and a pitching staff of Jose Contreras, Livan and Orlando Hernández backed by closer Danys Baez.

Major League Baseball has. And fielding such a team was one of the options it considered in the event the Cuban government decides not to send its powerful selección nacional to next spring's World Baseball Classic.

''When you throw out scenarios, it's something you have to think about,'' said Paul Archey, baseball's senior vice president for international relations. "We have this group of Cuban players. Never say never, but it's not something that's being contemplating right now. We expect Cuba to play.''

MLB, which is organizing the 16-nation World Cup-style tournament, the first international baseball event to feature the best professional players from each country, is still negotiating with the Cuban government about its participation. At the same time, however, it is developing contingency plans in the event an agreement can't be reached.

''We're still hopeful,'' Ronaldo Peralta, manager of MLB's office in the Dominican Republic, said of Cuba. "But we're running out of time.''

POSSIBLE FILL-INS

The most likely scenario in the event Cuba declines to participate is to simply replace it with a team from either Nicaragua or Colombia, both of whom having already petitioned baseball for a spot in the tournament's Caribbean bracket, alongside host Puerto Rico, Panama and the Netherlands.

''I can tell you that both of teams have shown interest and will be given consideration,'' Archey said.

Colombia could field a team anchored by big-league shortstops Orlando Cabrera of the Los Angeles Angels and Edgar Renteria of the Boston Red Sox, and Nicaragua, which finished fourth in the 1996 Atlanta Olympics, would be led by Philadelphia Phillies All-Star pitcher Vicente Padilla and former major-league outfielder Marvin Benard.

''The strong possibility is that if Cuba doesn't go, either Nicaragua or Colombia will,'' Peralta said. But, he added, "Plan C that I have heard of is to field a team of Cubans . . . living outside the country.''

CUBAN-AMERICANS COULD PLAY

Under that scenario, players either born in Cuba would be eligible to play. Some, such as the Marlins' Lowell, whose father-in-law was a political prisoner in Cuba, and Baltimore's Rafael Palmeiro, who fled Cuba as a boy, have already said they would not represent Cuba as long as Fidel Castro is in power. And some, such as defector and World Series hero Jose Contreras of the Chicago White Sox, have said they would happily play for the Cuban national team, even one selected by the communist government.

For others, however, the situation is more nuanced.

''If they made a team of Cuban defectors from the U.S., I would play,'' said former Marlins' pitcher Michael Tejera, who defected from Cuban as a teen. "If they made a team with all the players here, it's not a problem.''

Ordoñez, Baez, first baseman Jorge Luis Toca and outfielder Alex Sánchez -- all former major-leaguers who defected from Cuba -- also said they would be interested in playing under the right circumstances.

''I'd love to play,'' added Eddie Oropesa, who defected in 1993 and has pitched in the big leagues for three teams.

Added agent Michael Maulini, who represents a number of Cuban defectors: "I have talked to some of my clients, [and] they would love to represent their country if Cuba voids the competition. I have a list of guys who will do it. It will be a decent team.''

Archey hopes it doesn't come to that.

''We have every reason to believe that Cuba is going to participate,'' he said. "Security is certainly one issue. [But] it's a political issue. In both countries.''

DECISION SOON

If Cuba decides to participate -- and Archey is hoping for a firm answer by the end of the month -- it will play its first two rounds in Puerto Rico, where more than 42 Cuban athletes, coaches and journalists defected during the Central American and Caribbean Games 12 years ago. And the semifinals and final will be played in San Diego, an even more unsettling prospect for a baseball program that has seen more than 140 players defect to the United States since 1991.

And that exodus has left the Cubans to quietly grapple with another problem as they consider entering a tournament against major-leaguers: How competitive will their team be?

The Cubans have dominated international amateur play in the past four decades, which has won the government major propaganda points, but its national team has never faced the level of competition they'll see in the World Baseball Classic.

And an early exit could deal serious harm to the aura of invincibility Cuba has built up around its national team.

''We believe they have every intention of committing,'' Archey said. "But we're still in those discussions right now with them on the terms. We're very confident and optimistic that they are going to play.''

Coast Guard looks for missing Cuban rafter

Posted on Thu, Nov. 17, 2005.

KEY WEST - The Coast Guard searched Wednesday for a Cuban rafter reported missing a few miles off the Lower Keys after five others he had traveled with were found.

The migrants were trying to make it to Florida on at least one, maybe two, homemade boats. At least one of the Cubans was found on a flimsy vessel near a reef.

Under the U.S. wet-foot, dry-foot immigration policy, most Cubans caught at sea are returned to their homeland while those who make it to land are allowed to remain.

The agency also said it repatriated 10 Cuban migrants to Bahia de Cabanas, Cuba on Wednesday. The migrants were among a group spotted Sunday by a boater in Key West's channel. At least one was found clinging to a buoy as others tried to swim to shore.

-- JENNIFER BABSON

Castro has Parkinson's disease, CIA has concluded

Two officials said the CIA is convinced that Cuban leader Fidel Castro suffers from Parkinson's disease. The agency has made a point of alerting U.S. policymakers.

By Pablo Bachelet And Frances Robles, pbachelet@herald.com. Posted on Wed, Nov. 16, 2005.

WASHINGTON - The CIA has alerted policymakers over the potential eroding of Fidel Castro's health.

The CIA recently concluded that Cuban leader Fidel Castro suffers from Parkinson's disease and has warned U.S. policymakers to be ready for trouble if the 79-year-old ruler's health erodes over the next few years.

If true, the CIA's assessment of the nonfatal but debilitating condition would mean Castro may be entering a period where doctors say the symptoms grow more evident, medicines are less effective and mental functions start to deteriorate.

Although Castro's brother Raúl, head of the armed forces, has been anointed as his successor, Cuba analysts fear the possibility of a tumultuous period during which an incapacitated Castro refuses to give up power but can no longer project his overpowering personality to Cuba's 11 million people.

''For Fidel to start shaking in a real and substantial way -- in public -- sends quite a powerful message to people around the world,'' said Frank O. Mora, a professor of national security strategy at The National War College.

Rumors that Castro suffers from Parkinson's have been around since the mid-1990s. In 1998, he even jokingly challenged journalists to a pistol duel at 25 paces to show the steadiness of his hands.

But the Central Intelligence Agency began briefing senior members of the State Department and lawmakers about one year ago that its doctors had become convinced that Castro was diagnosed with the disease around 1998, said two longtime government officials familiar with the briefings. Both asked for anonymity because leaking the contents of the classified briefing could violate U.S. laws.

''About one year ago, we started seeing some pretty definitive stuff that he had Parkinson's,'' said one of them.

There has been no independent confirmation of Castro's illness, or any indication of how the CIA came to its conclusion. The State Department and the CIA declined to comment for this story.

But one State Department official said there is already evidence that Castro's abilities are fading noticeably. He is increasingly slurring his words and going off on tangents in public speeches, although he seems to have good days and bad days. Clearly, ''he is not the same person he was five years ago,'' added the official.

Others insist that Castro is fine, however. ''He enjoys excellent health,'' Ricardo Alarcón, president of Cuba's National Assembly, said last month after he was asked about Castro's failure to attend the Ibero-American summit in Spain.

Parkinson's symptoms include tremors, stiffness, difficulty with balance and muffled speech, although its exact manifestations vary according to the victim. High-profile individuals stricken with the disease include the late Pope John Paul II, former U.S. Attorney General Janet Reno, actor Michael J. Fox and boxer Muhammad Ali.

Dr. Carlos Singer, a Parkinson's expert at the University of Miami, said the disease on average cuts short the lifespan of a patient only by one or two years. ''The issue is not as much how long they can live, it is how much do they suffer in the process,'' he said.

The first five to eight years usually are ''manageable with relatively small doses of medication,'' Singer said. After that, symptoms such as stooped postures and difficulties with balance become more evident. And in the advanced stages, about 40 percent of patients develop what one specialist on the disease called "basically an overall decline in cognitive functions.''

DRUG EASES SYMPTOMS

The main drug to ease the symptoms of the disease is levodopa, which replenishes the brain with the dopamine chemical that is deficient in Parkinson's. Patients can program their activities around the periods when the drug is taking effect, known to doctors as ''on periods.'' But over time, the drug loses its effectiveness.

''As the disease slowly progresses, the medications have to be taken more frequently, at higher doses,'' said Paul Larson, a neurosurgeon and Parkinson's specialist at the University of California, San Francisco. 'But you eventually reach a point where the patient is fluctuating between an 'on period' and an 'off period' so frequently that you can't, in essence, keep up with just medications.''

Possible side effects of levodopa are involuntary movements and facial grimaces, as well as visual hallucinations. As both Parkinson's and the drug can cause blood pressure to drop, patients can sometimes faint, Singer said.

FAINTED, NODDED OFF

Castro has displayed some signs of ill health in recent years, though perhaps no worse than other 79-year-olds.

Castro fainted during a speech in a Havana suburb in 2001 and was seen almost collapsing during the inauguration of Argentine President Néstor Kirchner in 2003. A public tumble last year left him with a fractured knee and arm, and former Ecuador President Lucio Gutiérrez wrote in his recent book that he had to prop up a nodding-off Castro several times while sitting next to him at an international event.

Cuba watchers also noted Castro was not shown touring the areas of Havana hit by Hurricane Wilma, something out of character for a man who has personally managed every crisis in Cuba since taking power in early 1959, from the 1961 Bay of Pigs invasion to the Elián González affair in 2000.

For U.S. policymakers, the report that Castro may suffer from Parkinson's has sparked concerns about Cuba's political stability down the road.

''It's going to be harder for Fidel to go out and perform, and he's been performing the guerrilla theater for 50 years,'' said Brian Latell, a retired CIA analyst on Cuba. Latell is the author of After Fidel, a new book about Castro and his brother Raúl, the world's longest-serving defense minister and the sole designated successor of Castro.

LARGER QUESTIONS

Damián Fernández, director of Florida International University's Cuban Research Institute, said the larger questions are how Castro's subordinates would react to his mental or physical erosion, and how that could affect Raúl's role as Cuba's No. 2.

''I envision Raúl trying to forge key alliances with subordinates in the military and among civilians to rule very tightly,'' he said. ''But I don't know how this could sustain itself without delivering benefits'' to the Cuban people.

That's assuming that Raúl, 74, does not die before his brother. That would leave Fidel without a clear successor and the powerful military, now controlled by the younger brother, without a widely recognized or respected leader.

The result might be political turmoil as senior government officials jockey for power with a Fidel Castro too infirm to make vital decisions.

''The revolution could be hanging by a thread,'' Latell said.

But that may be some time away. During his recent TV interview with Argentine soccer star Diego Maradona, Castro said that rumors of his health were so frequent that "the day that I die, nobody is going to believe it.''

School to seek ways to solve Cuba land disputes

A Nebraska law school has been granted federal money to study how to settle Cuban property claims after Fidel Castro's death.

By Frances Robles. frobles@herald.com. Posted on Sat, Nov. 12, 2005

A Nebraska law school has won a $750,000 federal grant to tackle what's likely to be a thorny issue in Cuba policy: once Fidel Castro is gone, what will be done with the thousands of properties he confiscated from Americans 45 years ago?

The Creighton University School of Law in Omaha won a two-year grant from the U.S. Agency for International Development's Cuba Transition to Democracy Program to come up with a model property claims tribunal.

The bilateral U.S.-Cuba tribunal would try to settle the thousands of claims now worth about $6 billion that have amassed since Cuban leader Fidel Castro nationalized more than 6,000 U.S. properties in 1960. The owners range from Texaco to United Fruit Sugar.

The idea of the grant is to create a model that post-Castro Cuba can use to settle the claims.

''We don't have a dog in that fight. We are academics who know something about this kind of thing trying to offer our thoughts on how this would work,'' said Patrick Borchers, dean of Creighton School of Law. "These are events that took place over 40 years ago. That's going to be a big project.''

Although Creighton has no expertise in Cuba study, Borchers said the school is known for its international-law programs. Borchers, an expert in conflict of laws, will lead a team of six people, including political scientists and dispute-resolution specialists. The money would subsidize part of their salaries and pay for computer software and travel.

''One of the major issues at the time of transition will be property confiscations,'' said David Mutchler, director of USAID's Cuba program. "People have done papers and studied it, but this is attempting to systematically look at a lot of issues.''

Adolfo Franco, USAID's assistant administrator for Latin America, will formally award the grant at a ceremony next week at Creighton, his alma mater.

News of the grant drew mixed reactions.

''USAID just wasted $750,000,'' said Teo A. Babun, a businessman who established a private claims register in 1999. "It doesn't take rocket science to see what's already available and pull it together.''

The Cuban-American National Foundation has stressed that it's important not to give the impression that exiles would return home to boot people out of their homes, or that Washington will be calling the shots.

''Obviously, there is going to have to be a process, and that process would have to be established by Cubans on the island,'' said foundation director Alfredo Mesa. "We welcome the study, as long as it recognizes that those decisions have to be made by Cubans under a sovereign state where there is rule of law.''

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