Does alliance pose military, spy risk to U.S.?
By Tracey Eaton / The
Dallas Morning News. 05/09/2001
HAVANA – Twenty-two years after Fidel Castro called China's top leader
a "numbskull," Cuba and Communist China have forged their closest
friendship ever, quietly becoming partners in everything from hotel development
to consumer electronics.
But some U.S. analysts worry that the two nations are also cooperating on
military and intelligence matters, posing a potential threat to American
interests.
"It is a matter of concern. China does use Cuban territory for
land-based signals intelligence collection against the U.S.," said Larry
Wortzel, director of the Heritage Foundation's Asian Studies Center in
Washington.
Chinese and Cuban officials denied the accusations.
"There does not exist even a slight possibility" that China is
using Cuba as a listening post, said a spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in
Havana. The claim is "a lie."
A Cuban official said, "As far as I know, China does not use Cuban
territory for electronic espionage activities." The United States, he
added, would be wrong to use the accusation to justify its controversial
surveillance missions near the Chinese coast.
On April 1, an American EP-3E Navy surveillance plane and a Chinese fighter
collided over the South China Sea. The Chinese plane crashed, killing the pilot.
The U.S. aircraft landed and its 24 crew members were detained in Chinese
territory for 11 days before being released.
U.S. officials have since been trying to get the plane back, without
success.
Chinese President Jiang Zemin was on a six-country swing through Latin
America during the standoff over the detained crew. His fifth stop was Cuba,
where he stayed for four days before leaving on April 15.
During his visit, China agreed to give Cuba about $400 million in credits,
including $200 million to modernize and expand the island's telecommunications
network and $150 million to buy Chinese television sets.
Some analysts believe that cooperation in areas such as communications and
electronics could be a convenient cover for closer military cooperation.
"China ... is making Cuba a military- and intelligence-gathering
center," said Manuel Cereijo, a professor of electronic engineering at
Florida International University.
Cuba probably wants economic aid from China, but what does China want, he
asked.
In a 1999 study, Dr. Cereijo argued that Cuban cooperation with China –
and the former Soviet Union, as well – has turned the island into a
military threat to the United States.
He contends that:
• The Cuban military in 1991 began trying to develop computer viruses
that could be unleashed in the United States. Such efforts have continued and
could someday be used to undermine American defense systems.
• Cuba is probably developing radio frequency weapons, used to
interfere with or disable a foe's computers and radios.
• Chinese personnel have been working out of the Bejucal listening post
since March 1999. In 1995, the former Soviet Union began helping Cuba build the
base, south of Havana. It is believed to be capable of both eavesdropping and "cyber-warfare."
• Chinese workers also are reportedly helping Cuba modernize a
satellite-tracking center.
"Cuba represents a serious threat to the security of the United States,"
concluded. Dr. Cereijo, who said his study was based on interviews with about
300 Cuban engineers and scientists who were either visiting the United States or
had defected.
Current and former high-level U.S. military officials have said they don't
view Cuba as a military threat.
"Cuba has little motivation to engage in military activity beyond the
defense of its territory and political system," said a seven-page 1998
report by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency.
Many analysts are more concerned about what China is doing elsewhere in the
Americas.
Panama is clearly an important base for the Chinese, said Alvin Buckelew, a
political science professor at North Georgia College & State University.
In 1999, the Hong Kong-based Hutchison Whampoa company outmaneuvered
Japanese and American companies for long-term leases to operate ports on both
ends of the Panama Canal. U.S., Panamanian and Hutchison officials have denied
any connection between the company and the Chinese government.
Cuba is also important, Dr. Buckelew said. The People's Liberation Army "could
easily move into Cuba, supplanting the previous Russian efforts under various
economic disguises."
China may even try stationing some short- and medium-range missiles or
submarines in Cuba, he said, although no evidence of that has surfaced.
Others shrug off the notion of a Chinese military presence in Cuba, but few
deny there are signs of increased cooperation.
Trading visits
In 1993, the Chinese president visited Cuba. Mr. Castro went to China in
1995. The president's brother, Raul Castro, head of Cuban armed forces, also has
been to China.
In February 1999, a top-level Chinese military delegation led by Defense
Minister Chi Haotian visited the island. It was first time a Chinese defense
minister had visited Cuba.
Cuba-China relations weren't always so warm, especially after Mr. Castro in
the 1960s sided with China's rival, the Soviet Union.
In 1979, Mr. Castro said the Chinese and the United States were the two "archenemies"
of the developing world, according to University of Miami professor and Cuba
expert Jaime Suchlicki.
The Cuban president also called Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping a "numbskull"
and a "puppet."
Today, China clearly sees Cuba as having some sort of strategic value,
experts say. And military relations between the two nations will likely grow
closer in the coming years, said Harvey Nelsen, a former DIA research analyst.
Surveillance flights
The U.S. Navy flies 200 surveillance flights a year off the coast of China,
he said.
"That goes way beyond intelligence gathering and into the realm of
provocation. China has got to be looking for some quid pro quo, and Cuba would
make the most sense.
"I doubt that Fidel would allow Chinese aircraft to be based in Cuba,
but spy trawlers and land-based intercept stations would be less problematic,"
said Dr. Nelson, now a University of South Florida professor who writes about
superpower relations and the Chinese military.
Whatever the Chinese decide to do in Cuba, they'll likely take a long view
of their relationship with the Castro regime, said John Kavulich, director of
the U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council, a business organization in New York.
Long-term strategy
"When Chinese companies and the Chinese government develop a strategic
plan, it's 50 to 100 years, whereas we're looking at things quarter by quarter,"
he said.
U.S. officials who were asked about China's possible use of Cuba as a spy
base had little to say.
One official called it troubling. Another said China's electronics
operations in Cuba are "all pretty normal stuff."
The Chinese in Cuba operate on international radio frequencies and are not
breaking any law, said John Winston, assistant enforcement bureau chief at the
Federal Communications Commission. "Nor are they interfering with anyone,"
he said.
Some analysts said they find it odd that anyone would bother to single out
Chinese spying when U.S. espionage is so vast and widespread.
"There's not a single country that can remotely match U.S.
capabilities," said Patrick Poole, an author and intelligence expert who
has traveled to both China and Cuba.
America's premier global spy system, he said, is called ECHELON. It captures
satellite, microwave, cellular and fiber-optic traffic – all information
that is then funneled to the National Security Agency.
A sophisticated computer system automatically flags intriguing
conversations. The Russians also spy extensively. And they have spent more than
$3 billion on an electronics espionage station called Lourdes, according to U.S.
congressional testimony in July 2000.
Electronic spying
The Russians are thought to pay Cuba from $200 million to $300 million to
use the facility. It is located near one of Havana's airport terminals, covers
some 28 acres and has, at one time, employed as many as 1,500 Russian engineers,
technicians and other workers, experts say.
Russian officials in Havana couldn't be reached for comment, and a Cuban
official said he didn't know the status of Lourdes.
London's Sunday Times has reported that Moscow receives as much as 75
percent of its military intelligence about the United States from the facility.
Congress has tried to force the site to be closed, but the U.S. government has
been reluctant to push for that. The reason: The Americans want the Russians to
be able to verify its weapons treaties with the United States, and it also wants
to avoid Russian pressure to close U.S. spy bases on foreign turf.
"Here's something to bake your noodle," said Mr. Poole, the
author. "The U.S. and China have agreements to share intelligence
information on Russia obtained through U.S. surveillance facilities located in
China.
"I used to be amazed, but no more, when I saw how incestuous the
national intelligence agencies are. None of the standard labels or concepts
apply," he said. "That should be the real focus of our concern."
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